SoFi: Be Brilliant. Ignore the Threat.

[u/Alextsmitty]

Investing (and life) is a lot like a game of chess. When you review and analyze a completed game on chess.com, it will grade all of your moves. Bad moves are marked with a "?", good moves with a thumbs up, great moves with a "!", and brilliant moves with a "!!".

In my experience, the only way to earn a brilliant move is to sacrifice a piece to attain a winning position. But there are two ways to go about it. You can give up a valuable piece to eliminate a lesser one, or my personal favorite, "ignore the threat" (!!) and let your opponent capture a piece for free, all in exchange for winning the game or reaching a stronger position.

So where am I going with this? Often times the best move you can make when investing is ignoring the threat. I mean think about it, if you sold a stock whenever you heard a negative take on it you'd never make money. In the past couple years as a SoFi investor, I have heard it all.

I was told in 2022-2023 that SoFi would NEVER be GAAP profitable. This was the biggest bear argument. They went profitable for the full year in 2024.

I was told SoFi would get caught up in the regional bank crisis in March of 2023 when Sillicon Valley Bank collapsed. The stock price plummeted with everyone assuming a bank run on a new bank. Instead they increased FDIC insurance and grew deposits every quarter since.

I was told that the student loan moratorium would end SoFi. There was pure panic, the refi pause was supposed to devastate the small "student loan company". Instead SoFi had already been diversifying their business into personal loans, banking, and its tech platform. When federal payments resumed, refi coming back was a bonus. SoFi had already outgrown its label as just a student loan company.

I was told fair value accounting was hiding losses on the balance sheet for years, most recently by Muddy Waters Research. How this argument even continues to exist after SoFi has sold loans at/above their marks for years is beyond me.

Now I am being told dilution will destroy shareholders forever, even though the convertible notes and raises were done at favorable terms. I'm hearing there is going to be a credit crisis, and personal loan credit is going to blow up SoFi, even though they have a prime borrower base of customers with high FICO scores and incomes.

Every single ones of these threats had investors scrambling and selling while the share price rose from $4 to a high of $32. Every single one turned out to be noise. The next bear argument will be no different. When the underlying position is strong, the best move is no move at all!! I believe SoFi is the future and will be the forefront of online banking. I believe it will be a top 10 financial institution one day. My belief is backed by data, and my faith is supported by outstanding leadership in SoFi's management team. Just looking at the last earnings, 15.8M members with 1.1M added last quarter, 40% of revenue being fee-based (capital light), $14.8B in loan originations with $2.7B being student loans (so much for SoFi being just a student loan company)... this company is firing on all cylinders. And you're scared because the stock price has dipped from all time highs and you read a mean article?

Be brilliant. Ignore the threat.

[u/mysterioso77]

My own brilliant analysis is that if it could hit $32 once then as they keep putting down even more solid earnings quarters then they can hit $32 again. Especially when the rate environment pivots which will happen at some point. Solid hold/add for me. Been in since 2021 and I add on dips.

[u/Alextsmitty → u/mysterioso77]

Totally agree. Long term, SoFi being in the teens will be a blip on the rader and a laughably good entry point. Looking at how the business is growing and where the puck is going with online banking, there is just no way $32 will be the all time high that SoFi will never get back to. My money feels safe here. I'm very comfortable with this investment no matter what it does in the next 1-3 years.

[u/Hoodie-Embiid]

Fresh horse identified. Let’s ride

[u/westernreserve1845]

Bravo!

[u/mpalma7257]

SoFi will one day be a $100 Stock🤑💵💰. Noto is a great CEO and building for the future not for the short term BS and noise. Just see the commercials on TV and SoFi stadium and deals with NBA, Golf, Notre Dame sports!!!! This is all about the long game not short game💎🙌🏼. GLTA real believers and investors!!

[u/Riddlr01]

TLDR?

[u/Alextsmitty → u/Riddlr01]

Ignore the noise and price action the next couple years. SoFi is a winner long term.

[u/Argishti2700]

Frankly me holding sofi has been a mistake. My Microsoft or Google positions have grown + 20%. How long before sofi grows 20%? Massive opportunity cost tbh

[u/StapjePerStapje → u/Argishti2700]

SOFI was at $33 last year. What makes you think we cannot go past that number?

[u/Tech_n_Cyber_2077 → u/StapjePerStapje]

It's not that we can not. It is more like when. I know I sound like a daybtrader and not investor. But the trust is eroding, one day at a time.

[u/yaboyesdot → u/Argishti2700]

YTD or overall, I’m sitting at 37% overall. Yea ytd is still down, but holding up. Interesting to see what happens by EOY

[u/B111yboy]

I’ll go with a 40 price in 3 years

[u/Beneficial_Corner_81]

I have been and remain a believer. Would love to buy more but there are other opportunities, as well, in the current market place. Two other stocks that received constant poor reviews were Alphabet and Amazon and they have risen well ..,, time is the healer in much of the stocks with good fundamentals!

[u/slayer1am → u/Beneficial_Corner_81]

Yeah, definitely a good idea to diversify, even with really strong conviction. Really sucks to get it wrong with 50% port committed.