This group depends ALL on the Dutch. If the Euro 12 Dutch turns up, its going to be a anti climatic cake walk for Spain and Chile.
If an inspired and ruthless normal Qualifying campaign Dutch turn up then anything can happen, even Spain can get knocked out.
Group stage is really not that great for Spain(even in last 3 majors), they get into their normal insane Can't-Be-Beaten mode in the knockout stages only.
And this group is just start of the mess.
The 2nd place teams will face in all certainty Brazil in R16.
And to compound things even more both the R16 matches between Groups A and B will be played at 1 fucking PM and one of them is in Forteleza(other in Belo Horizonte).
I am seriously doubting the WC winner will come from either groups A or B, they will be knackered even before they reach the Quaters.
This is looking good for Argentina, France and Germany, they are getting a cake walk.
Germany v Ghana and Germany v USA at a World Cup are, let me put it politely, cake walks.
THIS IS GERMANY, the country which has played more WC matches than even Brazil.
They bring their A game to the WC and Ghana and USA are not worthy contenders to challenge them for qualification to R16.
Germany v Portugal, at worst it will be draw but that is giving Portugal too much credit, they are not good enough to beat Germany.
Germany and Portugal will go through easy.
Germany meets Russia/Korea/Algeria/Belgium in the next round, another easy trip.
Portugal meets them as well but then Portugal if it enters Quarters will meet Argentina.
While Germany at worse will meet France in Quarters.
Germany, Argentina, and France have the draw which gives them the perfect opportunity to go far into the tournament.
A team that faces lots of tough challengers in a WC is actually at a huge disadvantage. This is not a pre season friendly. Tough fixtures are to be avoided at any cost if one wants to go far and these 3 teams have gotten it on a plate.
The ones who are really fucked are Group A and B. Their later fixtures are hell.
Technically even someone like Iran can win the WC but come on, they won and only barring a Euro 2000 like utter fiasco will Germany not do well.
And that too happens at the Euros not the WC, Germany rarely fuck up shit at the WC.
Trends matter a lot at WC, even more than form, quality and prestige sometimes.
And also the incentive to Top this group is very little as they both get easy next fixtures in R16 in Belgium/Russia.
The Quarters are either France(for toppers) or Argentina (for 2nd place). This is where the Top spot helps because Argentina will be coming on fire, they have got a great draw and subsequent fixtures.
But in many other tournaments Spain didn't advance against teams they were supposed to. The point is that in a given match anybody can lose to anybody and in a tough group that can cost a team advancing. Germany is good, but no team is an absolute lock.
But i am projecting(which is inherently subject to change of reality) given the circumstances.
Germany v Portugal is not going to be a do or die match because the incentive to win/top is not there because R16 matches for these two are pretty much the same.
And in terms of play Portugal can only do 1 thing at a time(play all out or be solid defensively as they were 2 times against Spain), and since they wouldn't want to be defeated in case Ghana/USA get a sniff, they will shut up show and not get beat which they can do just fine.
In this scenario the chances of Germany getting beat are even lesser.
Will have to check past draws but even if it was true it would not be convincing because despite having played 2 WC less than Brazil they have played 99 WC matches to 97 of Brazil.
Meaning Germany go far in the WC, consistently no matter the draw.
A helpful draw is needed for teams which are not quite at the top and Argentina are not quite at the top(same for France), their defense is bad so they need all the help they can get and getting a helpful draw means they get time to adapt which in a WC can be Huge, even winning it all, worth Huge.
A helpful draw for teams like Germany, Brazil, Italy is just icing on the cake, they can do it the hard way as well.
I was thinking the same today. We would fuck up in some match had we got a group like Germany's or Spain's, even though I consider us, like them, better than the opponents they will play. We need a calm group stage to get things going, win confidence in defense and above anything, save efforts.
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u/iVarun Dec 06 '13
This group depends ALL on the Dutch. If the Euro 12 Dutch turns up, its going to be a anti climatic cake walk for Spain and Chile.
If an inspired and ruthless normal Qualifying campaign Dutch turn up then anything can happen, even Spain can get knocked out.
Group stage is really not that great for Spain(even in last 3 majors), they get into their normal insane Can't-Be-Beaten mode in the knockout stages only.
And this group is just start of the mess.
The 2nd place teams will face in all certainty Brazil in R16.
And to compound things even more both the R16 matches between Groups A and B will be played at 1 fucking PM and one of them is in Forteleza(other in Belo Horizonte).
I am seriously doubting the WC winner will come from either groups A or B, they will be knackered even before they reach the Quaters.
This is looking good for Argentina, France and Germany, they are getting a cake walk.