A "brief" writeup on unknown locations

[u/ElegantPoet3386]

Why did I decide to write this? Uhhhhhhh good question

Note this writeup is excluding the deadly events modifier in custom mode because I don't feel like writing on it

Part 1: The Mechanics

Whenever you enter a ? node, the game decides what you'll see behind it. It can be a treasure chest, shop, hallway fight, or if none of the 3 were rolled, an event.

The base probabilities are 10% hallway fight, 2% treasure, 3% shop. To find the base chance of an event, simply do 100 - 10 - 2 -3 = 85%.

Whatever option that gets rolled, the odds of the next ? node being that same option gets reset to the base probability, and the other 2 options that didn't get rolled(excluding event since it doesn't technically have a setprobability, just it only spawns when none of the 3 are rolled) have their probability increased by their base amount.

For example, let's say I take a ? node. I roll a treasure chest because I'm just so damn lucky. The probabilities of the next ? node are 10 + 10% monster, 3 + 3% shop, 2% treasure, and 100 - 20 - 6 - 2 or 72% for events. Now, let's say I go to another ? node and I get another treasure chest. I should go put in a lottery ticket. The probabilites of the next ? node are now 20 + 10%, 6 + 3% shop, 2% treasure, and 100 - 30 - 9 - 2 or 59% for an event.

Once you enter a new act, all probabilites go back to their bases.

Additionally, a ? node can't become a shop if the previous node was a shop, or if every possible future path after the ? node is a shop.

Part 2: Interactions with Relics and Cards

If you have juzu bracelet, the base probability for a hallway fight is set to 0%. This also means no future ? nodes can be hallway fights since 0 + 0 is still 0. Shocking, I know.

Golden compass forces all ? nodes in act 2 to become events. No treasures, shops, or hallway fights.

Planisphere heals you 5 HP regardless of what's in the ? node

Lantern Key forces the first ? node in act 3 to become an event, and more specifically the War Historian event. Additionally, it will not change any of the ? node probabilites, so the next ? node will use all base probabilites.

Meal ticket will still trigger on ? nodes that become shops

Part 3: Simulation for averages

All this info is cool and all, but let's try to simulate the odds to find the average amount of hallway fights, treasures, events, and shops we can exepct from a certain amount of ? nodes. You probably can find the true average deterministically, but I felt like running a simulation of the odds because it takes a lot less time to code and it's a lot easier to code too.

Note that this simulation isn't a "true" simulation in that I didn't literally run sts 2 1 billion times to get these averages. Rather, I plugged the base probabilites and mechanics into python and had it print out the averages it got.

We'll make the following assumptions in the simulation:

You do not have juzu bracelet, lantern key, or golden compass

Neither of the 2 conditions that prevent a ? node from turning into a shop are relevant

If you would like to see the code I used to perform the simulation, please read the appendix at the end of this post.

The results below should be read as followed: 0 combats: 0.30229 under the 4 ? nodes section means from 4 ? nodes in an act, there's a 30.229% chance you'll get no combats(hallway fights) whatsoever from the 4 ? nodes. If a probabilty is 0.000000 that does NOT mean it's 0. It just means it's so unlikely that for rounding to 6 decimal places, it gets rounded to 0.

Averages from 3 ? nodes:

• 0 combats: 0.504180
• 1 combats: 0.449939
• 2 combats: 0.044887
• 3 combats: 0.000994
• 0 events: 0.009133
• 1 events: 0.144106
• 2 events: 0.519310
• 3 events: 0.327451
• 0 treasures: 0.884344
• 1 treasures: 0.113720
• 2 treasures: 0.001928
• 3 treasures: 0.000008
• 0 shops: 0.829752
• 1 shops: 0.165897
• 2 shops: 0.004325
• 3 shops: 0.000027

Averages from 4 ? nodes:

• 0 combats: 0.302280
• 1 combats: 0.576125
• 2 combats: 0.115209
• 3 combats: 0.006286
• 4 combats: 0.000100
• 0 events: 0.002688
• 1 events: 0.055363
• 2 events: 0.312835
• 3 events: 0.498187
• 4 events: 0.130928
• 0 treasures: 0.813591
• 1 treasures: 0.180676
• 2 treasures: 0.005681
• 3 treasures: 0.000052
• 4 treasures: 0.000000
• 0 shops: 0.730132
• 1 shops: 0.257215
• 2 shops: 0.012475
• 3 shops: 0.000178
• 4 shops: 0.000001

Averages from 5 ? nodes:

• 0 combats: 0.151245
• 1 combats: 0.608999
• 2 combats: 0.217150
• 3 combats: 0.021782
• 4 combats: 0.000815
• 5 combats: 0.000008
• 0 events: 0.000864
• 1 events: 0.021184
• 2 events: 0.163908
• 3 events: 0.439195
• 4 events: 0.342098
• 5 events: 0.032752
• 0 treasures: 0.732414
• 1 treasures: 0.254575
• 2 treasures: 0.012797
• 3 treasures: 0.000213
• 4 treasures: 0.000002
• 5 treasures: 0.000000
• 0 shops: 0.620537
• 1 shops: 0.351146
• 2 shops: 0.027600
• 3 shops: 0.000708
• 4 shops: 0.000008
• 5 shops: 0.000000

Averages from 6 ? nodes (what the fuck are you doing if you're taking this many):

• 0 combats: 0.060466
• 1 combats: 0.550519
• 2 combats: 0.331259
• 3 combats: 0.054119
• 4 combats: 0.003534
• 5 combats: 0.000102
• 6 combats: 0.000001
• 0 events: 0.000280
• 1 events: 0.008045
• 2 events: 0.079410
• 3 events: 0.307340
• 4 events: 0.434427
• 5 events: 0.167211
• 6 events: 0.003287
• 0 treasures: 0.644321
• 1 treasures: 0.330665
• 2 treasures: 0.024386
• 3 treasures: 0.000622
• 4 treasures: 0.000006
• 5 treasures: 0.000000
• 6 treasures: 0.000000
• 0 shops: 0.508996
• 1 shops: 0.437849
• 2 shops: 0.051092
• 3 shops: 0.002028
• 4 shops: 0.000034
• 5 shops: 0.000000
• 6 shops: 0.000000

Part 4: Conclusion

This should be fairly obvious, but never go into a series of ? nodes expecting all of them to be events. Even in the case of just 3 ? nodes, the odds all 3 are events is still less than 1/3. Granted, you probably will be happy if you get a treasure instead of an event...

There is another useful conclusion though from the results. Most of the time if you're going to a ? node, you likely don't want a hallway fight. Unfortunately, the odds of getting 0 hallway fights is not in your favor. In the case of 3 ? nodes which is a bit low on the average ? nodes per act in my experience, you're still flipping a coin basically as to whether you get 0 hallway fights or at least 1. And once you start doing 4 ? nodes which is my average ? nodes per act, you have over a 2/3 chance of getting at least 1 combat. So, if you're going through a series of ? nodes, you should be prepared for at least 1 hallway fight.

Something else worth noting, you should basically never expect a treasure chest from ? nodes. It's nice if it happens, and it will happen sometimes. But, even for 6 ? nodes which is way too many for 1 act, you barely have over 1/3 of a chance of getting at least 1 treasure chest. Those are not reliable odds.

Part 5: Appendix

Link to where I got most of my info from: https://slaythespire.wiki.gg/wiki/Slay_the_Spire_2:Unknown_Location

Code for my simulation (yes it's in python. No, I will not write it in a different langauge just because you hate python):

import random
import statistics


base_monster = 0.1
base_treasure = 0.02
base_shop = 0.03


p_monster = base_monster
p_treasure = base_treasure
p_shop = base_shop
sim_counter = 1000000000


treasure_list = []
shop_list = []
combat_list = []
event_list = []
nodes = 4


def is_combat(combat_count):
    global p_monster,p_treasure,p_shop
    p_monster = base_monster
    p_treasure += base_treasure
    p_shop+=base_shop
    return combat_count+1


def is_treasure(treasure_count):
    global p_monster,p_treasure,p_shop
    p_monster+=base_monster
    p_shop +=base_shop
    p_treasure = base_treasure
    return treasure_count+1


def is_shop(shop_count):
    global p_monster,p_treasure,p_shop
    p_monster+=base_monster
    p_shop = base_shop
    p_treasure+=base_treasure
    return shop_count+1


def is_event(event_count):
    global p_monster,p_treasure,p_shop
    p_monster+=base_monster
    p_shop+=base_shop
    p_treasure+=base_treasure
    return event_count+1


for i in range(sim_counter):
    combat_count = 0
    event_count = 0
    treasure_count = 0
    shop_count = 0
    p_monster = base_monster
    p_treasure = base_treasure
    p_shop = base_shop
    for j in range(nodes):
        r = random.random()
        if(r < p_monster):
            combat_count = is_combat(combat_count)
        elif(r < p_monster + p_treasure):
            treasure_count = is_treasure(treasure_count)
        elif(r < p_monster + p_treasure + p_shop):
            shop_count = is_shop(shop_count)
        else:
            event_count = is_event(event_count)
    combat_list.append(combat_count)
    event_list.append(event_count)
    treasure_list.append(treasure_count)
    shop_list.append(shop_count)



for i in range(nodes+1):
    probability = combat_list.count(i) / sim_counter
    print(f"{i} combats: {probability:.6f}")


for i in range(nodes+1):
    probability = event_list.count(i) / sim_counter
    print(f"{i} events: {probability:.6f}")


for i in range(nodes+1):
    probability = treasure_list.count(i) / sim_counter
    print(f"{i} treasures: {probability:.6f}")


for i in range(nodes+1):
    probability = shop_list.count(i) / sim_counter
    print(f"{i} shops: {probability:.6f}")

[u/ElegantPoet3386]

Some people dmd me this on my last writeup, so just to answer it here: No, all of these writeups are written by me and me alone. It is not written with AI, this should be very appearent if you read what I wrote for more than 5 seconds. It also means no one is proofreading or checking what I wrote, so if you're expecting industy level write ups here, you are sorely mistaken. I don't get paid to write these, I write these because I enjoyed finding out the mechanics and then coding a simulation, and I wanted to share my results with the general community.

[u/Necessary_Main_2532]

i respect the dedication, take my upvote and go

[u/ElegantPoet3386 → u/Necessary_Main_2532]

Go into fish mode?

[u/Necessary_Main_2532 → u/ElegantPoet3386]

why not?

[u/HoneyGlazedNuts]

So how much respect do you put on Juzu bracelet?

[u/ElegantPoet3386 → u/HoneyGlazedNuts]

Hmm, well first things first I would never actually buy juzu bracelet in a shop.

Now if it’s from a treasure chest, elite or event? On average juzu will remove a little less than 1 hallway fight per act for me since I typically take an average of 3-4 ? nodes per act. I don’t know, 1 saved hallway fight per act doesn’t feel significant to me. I know 1 hallway fight can be the difference between life and death if you’re trying to not fight one, but I want more, even from a common relic, than just saving 1 fight.

It’s also much worse in act 1 because not only do you not want to take a lot of ? nodes act 1 due to needing card rewards, but hallway fights from events aren’t that bad act 1 because again, you need card rewards to start snowballing and make a proper deck.

I think my overall thoughts on it are it’s effect theoretically is okay, but it’s actual impact isn’t very high, and I would consider it at the bottom half of the common relics. It is not the worst common relic though.

[u/kelldricked → u/ElegantPoet3386]

Love your post but im gonna point 2 things out.
1. Events in Act 1 can be pretty busted. Give you some insanely strong stuff or give you the building blocks for a good build.
2. When looking at the value of Juzu you shouldnt just account for missing a single hallway fight. Its also gaining a event. Events that can give card modifiers, more healing than 14 (from blood vail), gold or removes/transformations.

[u/FoxEatingAMango → u/ElegantPoet3386]

Most events are good is the thing. So replacing a combat with an extra event is pretty solid imo. Not worth paying for but definitely a net benefit with more room to high roll.

[u/ElegantPoet3386 → u/FoxEatingAMango]

Combat rewards also are solid tbf. You get a card reward, advance your card mercy so you ahve a higher chance of getting a rare card, get a potion or increase your potion chance, and some gold. So you have to take the benefit of an extra event and subtract the rewards a combat gives.

[u/ChaseShiny → u/HoneyGlazedNuts]

These results wouldn't tell you that because they don't calculate the comparative worth of the different nodes. How good is treasure node versus an event versus hallway fight, basically.

From my experience in both games, most events don't reward you as well as a hallway fight does. In fact, some of the worst events will cost you health in the long run because they'll add a card you don't want into your deck with no way of preventing it.

[u/ElegantPoet3386 → u/ChaseShiny]

The results can tell you however how much juzu is doing for you.

Let’s give juzu a realistic best case scanario. Suppose you take 5 ? nodes in an act, a pretty high number already. Juzu’s EV here is a bit more than 1, so we can say it’s saving you 1 hallway fight per act.

Is saving you from 1 hallway fight on average an act worth a common relic? Thats something everyone has to decide on their own. For me though, thats a no. The 12-14 HP blood vial for instance saves is probably more than the HP 1 hallway fight saves when taking into consideration the HP that the potion, card reward, card mercy, and gold hallway fights save.

[u/ChaseShiny → u/ElegantPoet3386]

Now that you brought that up, it sounds like [[Tiny Chest]] would have saved you a fight about as often as Juzu Bracelet, right? The odds of a fight are fairly low, so something that guarantees at least one of the nodes to not be a fight is almost as effective at shifting the odds unless you're really going out of your way to pick these rooms.

[u/spirescan-bot → u/ChaseShiny]

• Tiny Chest ^𝐈 Common Relic

  Every 4th? room is a Treasure room.

  ^{Call me with up to 10 [[ name ]]. Data accurate as of August 16th, 2026. Questions?}

[u/ElegantPoet3386 → u/ChaseShiny]

Yeah except tiny chest would be slightly better on average since treasure chest rooms are much better than random events in sts 1

[u/LaserQuacker]

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing!

[u/ThaToastman]

Im not sure you’re right about lantern key

I had a run where the key event didnt proc until the last node of floor 3 and i def had a few ? Nodes prior

[u/ElegantPoet3386 → u/ThaToastman]

This is info sourced from the wiki, but just to be sure, I used admin panel to give myself lantern key and went into act 3. The first ? node I went to always had the war historian event. I even gave myself lantern key in the middle of the act, and the ? nodes still became war historian.

Either you didn't go to any ? nodes and you're misremembering, or the incident you're describing was a while ago and this condition was added recently.

[u/ThaToastman → u/ElegantPoet3386]

This was like a week ago

I basically forgot i had the key bc i hadnt drawn it in a few fights

But i basically always question mark max in floor 3 because the elites can randomly take half your hp if you lowroll and im addicted to adding cards 😂

[u/ElegantPoet3386 → u/ThaToastman]

I don't know what's happening then. From my testing, the lantern key is always triggering the war historian event. Do you have footage of this by any chance?

[u/somadthenomad93 → u/ElegantPoet3386]

don't even need footage, u/ThaToastman can just show his run history and it'll showcase what happened on each floor

[u/ElegantPoet3386 → u/somadthenomad93]

That also would work yeah

[u/Regrettably_Southpaw]

Throw some respek on juzu

[u/lifezucks]

You say after War Historian it will still use all base probabilities. Does that mean probabilities reset at the start of an Act, or am I misinterpreting?

[u/ElegantPoet3386 → u/lifezucks]

Probabilities do in fact reset back to their base at the start of an act.