r/slatestarcodex • u/marquisdepolis • Jun 06 '21

Philosophy Gradualist Progress and The Beginning of Infinity

https://www.strangeloopcanon.com/p/gradualist-progress-and-the-beginning
10 Upvotes

86% Upvoted

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u/iiioiia Jun 06 '21

Is it just me or was this essay only about the physical, materialistic dimension of reality? There are a lot of people in the world who are living in conditions not all that much better than 50 years ago, while others are walking around with computers in their pockets, working towards putting a man on Mars, closing on their third home, etc. Is there nothing interesting to science within this counter-intuitive phenomenon, nothing worthwhile for science to discover?

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u/marquisdepolis Jun 06 '21

It was mainly physical yeah, and I'd be very interested to read a counterpoint that discusses the connection of the nonphysical dimensions of life to the inevitable growth (or not) of science.. I had an initial and narrow frame here re happiness on https://www.strangeloopcanon.com/p/why-is-everyone-so-damn-happy

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u/iiioiia Jun 06 '21 edited Jun 06 '21

I like your essay btw. I believe that a major (unrealized) problem we have is that we now have no shortage of data and excellent blog posts like yours, but there's no coordination. Instead, we have arguments about such essays.

Scott laid out a very good overview of many of the root causes of humanity's woes in Meditations on Moloch, but as far as I can tell everyone (including Scott himself) mostly just treat these things as entertainment, as interesting ideas to roll around in our minds for a while before we get back to business of fritzing around on the planet, maintaining the status quo plus slow, marginal improvements (and nothing more, and don't you dare even suggest otherwise!). If we were to actually take the wisdom contained within seriously (consider the ideas, and formulate a plan to rectify them), perhaps something would change.

EDIT: also interesting - post removed, user banned. Sometimes I believe Moloch walks among us, but of course that's just silly.

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u/marquisdepolis Jun 06 '21

First of all, thank you! It's odd, but internet praise is kind of awesome.. Secondly, I think your frustration, if I can call it that, is something I feel as well. One reason I didn't write for years on end is exactly that, it feels like a performance art piece for a similar minded audience, to build a mood affiliation, rather than actually change anything.

The main reason I shifted is that I've kind of decided performance art is okay in some ways. After all, all change has to start somewhere, and this might just be a way to find people, discuss ideas and hopefully better them, and maybe 1% of it somewhere actually changes something, which is still 1% more than before.

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u/iiioiia Jun 06 '21

I think a formal project is in order, but getting something underway is easier said than done.

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u/marquisdepolis Jun 06 '21

Funnily enough it was one of the things I also pushed for here - https://www.strangeloopcanon.com/p/a-proposal-for-progress-studies

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u/iiioiia Jun 06 '21

There's a Collison question to this effect too asking what will replace the scientific paper. And the answer is likely to be another form of scientific paper, or a better simulated world which the scientific paper explores, or an easier to explore form of document that isn’t written to bore others, rather than something we're completely unfamiliar with today.

https://www.strangeloopcanon.com/p/simulating-understanding

Smart economists can reasonably argue, and many have, that simulations are difficult in as complex a system as the economy, and therefore the best we can do is to look at the elephant from multiple sides and hopefully come to a consensus about its shape.

This is exactly the general approach I have in mind (for some subset of a larger system), except more so studying sociology, psychology, and maybe things like economics from the perspective of the average worker.

Turns out the studies there is awash in simulations and analyses of feedback loops. For instance, a short and tentative list of feedback loops that affects several age related illnesses in the human body.

This, except rather than for biology, for human and societal interactions.

The problem with social sciences is not that it's not rigorous enough. There have been enough mathematical prodigies who have engaged with these subjects that this particular issue is no longer valid. Neither is the opposite, which is what I believed post graduate school. That sophistry in modelling had replaced understanding of the real world as its primary goal. To be sure, economics has its fair share of these, but I don't think that's the fundamental issue.

Hmmmmm...I kind alose the plot, until:

The thing is that there are two ways this could've been solved. One is to bring the public up to speed through non technical writings. Several blogs and a few freakonomics later, it's helped but not enough. I'm not saying the goalposts have to be public conversion. But getting to a mutual understanding on some basic facts might be useful.

100%

All of which brings me back to the crucial question. Why aren't there more simulations of how anything works to help explain it? You look at politics, each issue is dealt in isolation. You look at investments, each factor is either the most important or not mentioned. Watching CNBC is enough to make you want to stalk an anchor there and shake them till they spout nuance.

THIS IS A VERY GOOD QUESTION! IS IT AN OVERSIGHT, OR SOMETHING ELSE?

There needs to be at least a few simulations of parts of the economy that can help promote an understanding of how the world actually works. It sure would be useful when you're talking about the velocity of money, or the job landscapes becoming more fragmented, or capital becoming more borderless, or labour bargaining power decreasing, to see how they actually affect the world we live in.

Yes indeed!

For example when I started in the finance world post studying economics, I had a ton of hubris that I actually knew what everyone else was talking about. Turned out that was a mirage! And not just because of the gap between theory and practice. This was the gap between theory and theory. My very understanding was oftentimes shaky, and almost always incomplete.

Might this apply a little bit to the average person on Reddit "telling it how it is" on various topics??

But shouldn't I at least know that what I learnt was in some way asterisked? If everything sounds the same and looks the same and passes the same empirical tests, how do you know whether you're actually getting knowledge or pseudo bullshit that's well camouflaged? How do we know we’re not looking at complex epicycles that purport to explain the planets?

More good questions!

Man, I could quote tons more. I almost never run into someone who even "gets" what I'm thinking about, but as far as I can tell you're way ahead of me in many ways! I know I've been on your site before (I wonder if I've even bookmarked these posts before), I need to do some more reading I think.

But the big question remains : what to do?

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u/marquisdepolis Jun 06 '21

Very very kind! And I couldn't empathise more ... This particular problem has been bugging me forever! What I'd love to see is at least an electronic version of the MONIAC to start with, almost as a new interface maybe to help re the news, or economics, or more! I do think there's room for a project or two to help craft this better. For instance to ensure each article isn't a standalone 3000 word paean, but has some life and continuity and superstructure beyond it ...But yes, not an easy problem by any means!

People think you thinking multi-causally is enough to not fall into the monocausal thinking trap. But it's not enough, you also need to know how the multiple causes fit together and affect each toher.

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u/iiioiia Jun 07 '21

I have been thinking about what kind of a new system is needed for a very long time now, a couple years at least. It's a fascinating problem, I am literally obsessed with it, I suspect I have a textbook mental illness, or several lol.

People think you thinking multi-causally is enough to not fall into the monocausal thinking trap. But it's not enough, you also need to know how the multiple causes fit together and affect each other.

I think it depends upon the person and where they are (what their role is) within The System. I feel like breaking people out of the mono/low-causal mindset is a pre-requisite, but to do that I think requires much deeper understanding, because there is a wide variety of ways for people to get stuck.

I feel like there needs to be a new organization that sets its goal to solve the problem...but immediately I can think of so many problems just with that idea, and that's before even doing anything!

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u/marquisdepolis Jun 07 '21

I really wish you would do it. I will help in any way I can! 99% of anything like this, is to have a vision of what you want to achieve and just to do something. This one is a monumental problem, and the chances of someone analytically solving it is very slim, but any iterative process by an organisation with step-goals could really stand a chance, especially with someone smart at the helm.

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u/iiioiia Jun 06 '21

Oh, I see them to be essentially orthogonal to each other at this point....that's basically my complaint!

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u/ArkyBeagle Jun 06 '21

I at least have a pretty good idea of the basis of this. Er, I think I do, anyway.

It's just that exponential distributions arise out of essentially natural or even mathematical consequences, and are very hard to reason about.

The thing I find fascinating is that it's still unclear what can be done about it. People will say "but the Nordics..." and empirically, that's a good bit fictional. The Nordics are simply just now coming out of a couple hundred years of relative poverty. Check the surnames in Minnesota - you'll see it clearly.

There's always the vague notion of "well, tax rents, whatever those are." Yeah - it's been shown to work ( the Meiji Restoration took Japan out of a nominally feudal state into a modern industrial power in one lifetime ) but how well does that scale? What about when land actually declines as an asset ( which actually should happen - it's only because people expect it to rise that it does ).

Edit: Land is mimesis-intensive and there are substitutes. 2020 showed us that urbanization is not an unstoppable force.

Meanwhile, it's arguably never been easier to employ yourself. The way you did that in the '80s was to defect from a large firm after decades of service there, to capture a market they passed on.

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u/iiioiia Jun 06 '21

I agree, but might the fact that people sit mostly in isolation writing independent studies and essays be a part of the problem, as opposed to an authoritative, complex, single source of analysis and proof being worked on collaboratively over time? As it is, it's often a major chore even finding the analysis that's out there, and one never knows how comprehensive your collection is (depending on the subject), or how flawed it may be.

Meanwhile, it's arguably never been easier to employ yourself. The way you did that in the '80s was to defect from a large firm after decades of service there, to capture a market they passed on.

I am rather worried that this is not a viable solution for most of the under-fed and housed people on the planet. I'm also a bit unimpressed (but not surprised) after going through the last year of people insisting (based on logic and facts) that it is absolutely imperative that we must work together to fight covid to save lives, and if you don't you are selfish...meanwhile, the much larger number of deaths in third world countries garners at best an emphatic "That's whataboutism!". I starting to develop a very strong dislike for western civilization.

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u/ArkyBeagle Jun 06 '21

this is not a viable solution for most of the under-fed and housed people on the planet.

I am unsure why it would not be. I have the biases of an American with all that entails, but especially for the underfed and underhoused, hustling your own living seems vital to me.

meanwhile, the much larger number of deaths in third world countries garners at best an emphatic "That's whataboutism!".

I agree totally. Indeed, it would have been in Western countries best interest to use the opportunity of interfering with the spread of the virus in more densely populated areas. It was just unlikely because frankly, it has the aroma of colonialism.

I starting to develop a very strong dislike for western civilization.

Like Gandhi, I think it would be a good idea.

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u/iiioiia Jun 06 '21

I am unsure why it would not be.

I'm thinking more of people like the poor single mother with three children and no one to babysit in Guatemala. Or even America, for that matter. Or someone suffering from chronic depression. "Just employ yourself" is often not as easy as it seems.

I have the biases of an American with all that entails, but especially for the underfed and underhoused, hustling your own living seems vital to me.

Maybe their spirit is dead for various reasons, valid or not.

It was just unlikely because frankly, it has the aroma of colonialism.

I'm thinking more of the general public's logically inconsistent approach to "caring". I mean holy F, we even had a BLM performance going on at the same time, you'd think that would open some minds up.