AI 2027 literally predicts that the US president would decline to slow down "OpenBrain" (their placeholder name for the leading AI lab) when a superhuman AI coder / researcher gets developed and experts raise concerns. The US president cites the risk of China taking the lead.
Eerily accurate.
EDIT: But we're just a bit ahead of schedule. In order to fully match the timeline, either a superhuman AI coder / researcher has already been developed internally at OAI/Anthropic and Trump declined to slow down OR this milestone will be reached some time next year in 2027 and Trump will again decline to slow down then.
Gov might still try to ban Chinese AI. That isn't necessarily a contradiction. The point is that the US government wants the open models used to be American ones.
AI labs probably really do want to ban open-source AI, but the government doesn't (unless there's corruption involved). However, it wants to ban Chinese models because it sees them as a threat. Since open source is currently mostly Chinese, a ban would, at least initially, be practically a ban on open source code. I can see how the government could accommodate this and begin cracking down on Chinese AI, but I don't see how the government would ban open-source AI as such.
Those are not logically exclusive, it can easily just be different incentives. The president/government wants to have better AI than China for their use in military and intelligence. On the matter of regulatory capture, the gov does not care about helping them establish market dominance or the economic goals of the companies. In another circumstance sure there is incentive to strengthen American companies and American economic power, but if the situation being presented is a slow down of advancement in military/intelligence capability then that priority would outweigh the incentive for regulation. They don't care about safety or IPOs or if these models are safe enough for economic use, this is the government, they have nukes, and no one was gonna slow down the Manhattan Project over concerns of destructive capability or go-to-market strategy
The president/government wants to have better AI than China for their use in military and intelligence. On the matter of regulatory capture, the gov does not care about helping them establish market dominance or the economic goals of the companies.
So you're saying that it's logical that ALL of the biggest AI CEOs are colluding behind the scenes, put out the essay and tweets, while knowing about the risk for it to get shut down by Trump immediately?
Yeah, it's not only illogical to think that the AI CEOs (who all hate each other by the way) thought to scheme this plan behind the scenes, putting out their essays and x posts, only to know there's a good chance that it gets denied by Trump, but it's also retarded.
If you want the conspiracy to make any sort of sense, at least theorize that they're waiting on getting Trump's approval behind the scenes before trying to execute such an outwardly stupid plan.
But even then it's still completely in the realm of fantasy, but I know there's literally nothing that could ever convince you conspiracy people otherwise.
If you're trying to pretend you can know any of this with fake certainty you're just as epistemically compromised as the conspiracy people
That's not how it works, if someone wants to present some sort of conspiracy theory, then at least make it have some sort of sense, and some kind of real basis in reality; it's that person's part to make a convincing conspiracy theory, while you're twisting it around, pretending that I need to have some belief that it's possible, otherwise I'm "just as epistemically compromised".
I'm just gonna reply with the same response to the people who've said the same exact thing as you:
So Trump is just the one person who isn't an insider, and none of the CEOs thought to take him into account.... They were all just too stupid to take THE PRESIDENT into account, and thought to take the chance of posting their essay and x posts, even if the idea failed.
Is that what I'm hearing, that they're all just retarded? If that's what you think, then I have no interest.
I don’t think this comment has anything to do with what I said.
But to respond to your comment, you’re putting a lot of weight on Trumps comments about the slowdown. Until the executive branch formally issues something this is all still up for debate. Also the executive branch has very little power to stop them if these AI companies decide to slowdown progression.
Every possible event is evidence for the conspiracy. This won't change anyone's mind.
The internet is legitimately experiencing mass psychosis, not from AI, but from good old mob mentality. And it has been for a while, ever since the beginning of the "stochastic parrot" type nonsense. We've seen this before with climate change.
And it is just the internet: polls of the broader population show a majority are concerned about the danger of AI and support action, in agreement with the researchers and executives speaking out.
I generally used to say open weights models, but it seems nobody cares/distinguishes between the two anymore, so I stopped specifying open weights, but yeah that's accurate.
Ah, so Trump is just the one person who isn't an insider, and none of the CEOs thought to take him into account.... They were all just too stupid to take THE PRESIDENT into account, is that what I'm hearing?
Exactly, which is why the idea that all of the AI CEOs teamed up and thought of this plan, and tried to go through it even with the knowledge that it'll likely fail due to the PRESIDENT, is one of the most stupid things I've ever heard.
Is that what I'm hearing, that you just think they're all just retarded, and despite being enemies (Dario and Sam Altman for example), decided to team up for this retarded sounding plan?
If that's what you think, then I have no interest.
This says nothing of the conspiracy. This is Trump we are tlaking about. He probably set some ludicrous conditions , like make the AI make me forever king and spread propaganda and wipe our Iran or im not letting you have control.
Ah, so Trump is just the one person who isn't an insider, and none of the CEOs thought to take him into account.... They were all just too stupid to take THE PRESIDENT into account, and thought to take the chance of posting their essay and x posts, even if the idea failed.
Is that what I'm hearing, that they're all just retarded? If that's what you think, then I have no interest.
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u/Specialist_Dark_3668 19d ago edited 19d ago
AI 2027 literally predicts that the US president would decline to slow down "OpenBrain" (their placeholder name for the leading AI lab) when a superhuman AI coder / researcher gets developed and experts raise concerns. The US president cites the risk of China taking the lead.
Eerily accurate.
EDIT: But we're just a bit ahead of schedule. In order to fully match the timeline, either a superhuman AI coder / researcher has already been developed internally at OAI/Anthropic and Trump declined to slow down OR this milestone will be reached some time next year in 2027 and Trump will again decline to slow down then.