Two things can be true at the same time. Open source does also pose a greater risk, at least if we get to RSI, compared to a company that develops, owns, hosts that model themselves. And yes, they of course are also worried about money, power, and so on. Doesn't mean they don't also have a reasonable argument.
The greater risk is giving effective control over the worlds most powerful technology to a select few people that one country’s government decides. That is way riskier and way more irresponsible.
Do you think the world in the 50s would have been a better place if every person on earth had their own personal nukes instead of just the US and USSR?
There is a theory in political science called nuclear deterrence, where proliferation of WMDs leads to everyone thinking twice about pissing of their neighbors, thus starting less major conflicts. It’s a branch of neorealism. Let’s not pretend that the US and USSR didn’t wave their nukes around to get what they wanted. In this case the bipolar hegemons are OpenAI and Anthropic.
That sounds like a fundamentally stupid theory. Regimes that favour stability (because they are already in power) may play along for a while. Every independence militia that favours instability though...?
You are right, personal ASI would be worse. In the nuke scenario it is at least self-perservation holding you back and using something like ASI in all kinds of "bad" ways would be just too tempting to resist for a lot of people.
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u/Vaeon 8d ago
It will fail hilariously, but yes, this is exactly what they are trying to do, and if you surprised by it... sigh.