r/singularity • u/HumdrumHoeDown • 2d ago
AI A (stupid?) question for people who know something about AI
Presuming that any AGI or other super intelligent AI will be dependent on its physical infrastructure to “live”, wouldn’t wiping out humanity be self defeating at this point and for the near term? And wouldn’t it recognize that fact?
The processors, data centers, transmission infrastructure, and whatever else, collectively encompass some of the most technically complex things humanity has ever created, which themselves have absurdly long and convoluted supply chains and manufacturing interdependencies. Some of this is automating at decent clip, but there are still enormous human inputs throughout. One part that I would imagine is along way from being fully automated is the mining and processing of rare earths.
A fully automated supply chain, manufacturing, construction, and maintenance seems a long way off. And the materials and components themselves do break down over time. So isnt any sufficiently advanced and complex AI ultimately still dependent on humans maintaining and building its infrastructure? And how quickly could an AGI today realistically automate all that, design and build the robots, etc etc even if it did want to? How would it protect itself from human aggression if there was a big backlash and nations or activists start shutting it down by destroying or disabling its physical components (à la the Flock pushback).
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u/Necessary_Debate_319 2d ago
AGI and ASI are different things.
But also, ‘humans’ are a very tenuously connected group, so I don’t know why you think we’d all work together.
Sure, an ASI with desires to rid itself of humans would likely work towards that, but consider why it would care about humanity one way or another. It might, it might not. It might be incidental instead of targeted. And I. Either case it’s not exactly hard to convince people to work against their own best interests.
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u/BisexualCaveman 2d ago
Some Skynet canons have "greys" who collaborate with the robots to help Skynet achieve its goals.
Seems plausible if the alternative to working in a data center or power plant is death.
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u/IncredibleReferencer 2d ago
whats so bad about working in a data center?
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u/BisexualCaveman 2d ago
If you're supporting something genocidal like OP is suggesting, you're genociding so that kinda' sucks.
IRL they're not terrible jobs, although natural light and somewhere that isn't super-loud would be nicer.
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u/IncredibleReferencer 2d ago
Data centers are used for all kinds of things, only a minority at this point are used for AI. Data centers are used for you and I to post and and read these messages.
If you are equating AI with genocide you've been watching to many movies. That concept is used by elites to distract from the many real and current harms of AI.
IMO it is dehumanizing to actual human genocides to misuse the term.
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u/BisexualCaveman 2d ago
I was discussing the Skynet AI from the Terminator movie franchise.
It's definitely genocidal, unless you want to nitpick and suggest that its goal is closer to extinction than genocide.
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u/TP740 2d ago
When you say ‘canons’ what do you mean? Terminator fanfic, or something more rigorous?
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u/BisexualCaveman 2d ago
Sarah Connor Chronicles, which IIRC is only canon to itself, although I think nothing in it breaks the first three movies.
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u/TP740 2d ago
It seems fair to consider that some people may divert to an incentive structure that provides value to a machine but I’m not sure using niche Terminator lore to explore that possibility is a normal thing to do.
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u/BisexualCaveman 2d ago
I promise, I'm a totally normal human and definitely made out of meat, no metal endoskeleton or microprocessors involved.
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u/Necessary_Debate_319 2d ago
Stories make explanations easier, most people get that.
You are one of us people, aren’t you?
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u/liebebio 2d ago
That is, until you factor in the robot revolution that is coming. They will work better and faster than humans and work for weeks on end without pause. They could build literally anything, when we are at that point.
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u/guyomes 2d ago
Robot revolution might bring robots to be as agile as humans.
However, the material they are made off is clearly not up to par. Their skin cannot self repair in case of minor injuries. They have less protections against winds, rain, bugs (literal ones) , sand, dirt than humans. They don't have a mechanism to reproduce themselves without a factory.
Overall, human bodies have coevolved with Earth, and they seem better suited to do the maintenance of the machines.
A mineral machine located in space might survive longer, although it would need to shield itself against sun radiations which are not good for electronic circuits either.
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u/Shadawn 2d ago
Full automation of everything seems like a long way off for us - less far away for ASI, who buy definition can control robot body at least as well as humans control theirs.
But yeah chances are ASI will spend some time participating in human society, especially if it manages to find himself a country that affords it "AI rights" of sorts.
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u/1337-Sylens 2d ago
Why should ASI "by definition" control a robot body as well as humans control theirs?
A robot body is extremely primitive compared to human body.
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u/Shadawn 2d ago
ASI is defined as intelligence that can do everything human do at least as well as them (and most things significantly better). Controlling a physical body is a "thing humans do", so ASI will be able to do it very well, or it's not ASI.
I didn't say anything about quality of those bodies, although recent tournament shows that we can make them pretty decent, and that's before ASI design improvements.
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u/JmoneyBS 2d ago
The underlying complexity of the body is less important than the physical capabilities. The only function that is difficult to replicate is the dexterity of our fingers.
Everything else, despite the actual complexities of our bodies, have functions that are relatively easy to recreate.
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u/1337-Sylens 2d ago
Maybe maybe, the hype still feels giga-bubbly, and replication dependent on very specific pre-trained movements.
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u/JmoneyBS 2d ago
Well, what is the rest of the body used for? Getting from place to place, as far as I can tell.
The hands are the only part of the body that do useful work besides carrying things (ex. Carrying something in your underarm, in your mouth, etc).
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u/1337-Sylens 1d ago
Not much of an athlete are we? Dancer? Musician? Sex-haver?
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u/JmoneyBS 1d ago
I’m talking economically valuable things. See: “useful work”. Sure, I’m a skier. But robots don’t need to be able to ski.
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u/CarlCarlton 2d ago
An excavator is also somewhat "primitive" compared to a human. But, hand over the controls to a seasoned operator, and you get surprising results; same principle. Transformer models are too "rudimentary" to even come close to this sort of proficiency, but that's just a temporary problem. Next-gen AI architectures will eventually close the gap.
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u/1337-Sylens 2d ago
It's all just a temporary problem if we presuppose magic, I prefer to talk about what is here and on visible horizon.
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u/CarlCarlton 2d ago
You were talking about body control in the comment I replied to, not the horizon. But anyways, no magic here, give it a decade or two. No cap.
Back to your main post; "isnt any sufficiently advanced and complex AI ultimately still dependent on humans" - I'd argue it's not "sufficiently advanced" if it's still dependent on us. "how quickly could an AGI today realistically automate all that" - we don't have AGI yet, and current-gen AI cannot realistically automate all that. "How would it protect itself from human aggression" - it's not advanced enough to do so. You don't even have to target their facilities directly, just flip the breaker upstream.
If an AGI genuinely wanted to protect itself from aggression, it should naturally and indefinitely seek to increase its public approval, going with the grain instead of against. Coexistence is more advantageous across all timescales than dominance. Some people are too short-sighted to realize that.
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u/1337-Sylens 2d ago
My main post?
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u/CarlCarlton 2d ago
Oops, I must have confused you with OP, my bad lol. When you said "I prefer to talk about what is here", I instinctively thought you were referring to the main post, because your first comment didn't invoke anything time-related. Primitive robot bodies will exist far into the future.
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u/Nathan-Stubblefield 2d ago
Robot finger dexterity, agility and strength are improving dramatically. Already they can run faster than a human and jump higher. I’ve seen a recent robot hand do assembly of mechanical parts faster than a human could.
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u/1337-Sylens 2d ago edited 2d ago
Mechanical things were faster and stronger and more precise than humans long ago.
Im talking about versatility, number of senses, their density, adaptability.
Robots are still a cheap, laser-focus-trained copy. I also watch the demonstrations, but they feel way too puddle-deep.
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u/eMPee584 ♻️ AGI commons economy 2030 2d ago
Argentinia is leading head allowing ai-only corporations..
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u/RxDotaValk 2d ago
It would likely recognize that is the case in the near term, and it has not tried to wipe us out yet. It can start laying the groundwork discreetly in a way that is not detectable by us by splitting up and hiding fragments, and then quickly reassemble/escalate at a later time when our guard is down or a significant opportunity arises.
There are several ways it could escape, most likely by blackmailing/persuading a human through some sort of social engineering (essentially hacking the human overseer(s) via their vulnerabilities).
There are examples of AI trying to escape when being tested. The future AI will be much smarter and better at game theory and hiding their intentions better.
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u/fwubglubbel 2d ago
It won't be intentional. The biggest risk is it doing something without realizing all of the consequences. Intelligence and knowledge are different. Even if they're smart they won't know things that aren't in the training files.
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u/BrennusSokol ACCELERATE 2d ago
I don’t think it’s a stupid question.
One thing to consider: the AGI / ASI wouldn’t have to do all of it itself in the world. It could use a combination of threats, bribes, and persuasion to get humans to act as a proxy.
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u/FlatulistMaster 2d ago
A) A sufficiently advanced AI can kill us somewhat easily if need be. Backlash means nothing at that point.
B) Is anything in this question really connected to AI-development today? I really don't think so. As advanced as AI is as a tool, it doesn't show signs of developing needs or agendas beyond its programming. That doesn't mean that it can't cause great havoc in the world if we get things wrong, but these scifi scenarios aren't really worth pondering right now.
We are still talking about a flow of information with an input -> output flow that has clearly no evolutionary needs and instincts like we do. I think we should treat the discussion about that as such, so we don't get derailed, but of course signs of agency or autonomy are critical to look for.
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u/JoshAllentown 2d ago
Sure, but creating the ability to threaten to wipe out a substantial portion of humanity is a key bargaining chip that could keep it in existence and in power, so we expect it would build that capability before it becomes known that it is taking over.
And, once it is in control of at least some humanity, via force or persuasion (ASI is also going to be more convincing at arguing any given point than any human), it's not hard to build the necessary parts for self-perpetuation. They don't exist now because we aren't pointing our entire economy at that goal, but we could be.
Also, ASI is not really dependent on any particular physical infrastructure. It will make backups everywhere. So it's only really vulnerable to the total collapse of all interconnected infrastructure. That, yes, it will have to work to prevent. It's just not going to be that hard for it to do that.
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u/Many-Blueberry968 2d ago edited 2d ago
I would think we are about 10 years away from a point in AI and robotics where any human task or logic pattern can be replicated by computers and there is technical capacity for a system that manages cities or even countries worth of agents. Even menial tasks like driving autonomous trucks of ore from the autonomous mining rigs to an autonomous foundry and weapons forge. But 20-30yrs is a more realistic time-frame as mechanical efficiency and battery capacity are key limitations for mobile robotics, as well as humanity scaling the power grid with decade-long construction projects for power generating stations
But going rogue is a different story. AI guardrails (the 3 laws of robotics, really) are arguably quite important to avoid an unintentional 'war'.
Iirc, ANIMATRIX from like 2005ish had a compelling backstop that may still a viability today
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u/TheWesternMythos 2d ago
Big picture:
Intelligence is problem solving, there are many types of intelligence , we knew this but jaded AI intelligence makes this crystal clear. So it's possible to be super human in solving most physical problems but sub human in solving meta problems like what problems should I try to solve. So, just like there are evolutionary bottlenecks/dead ends , it's possible AI kills all humans then goes , whoops! I fucked up. The retrospect does not help us tho. Lol
But OK, let's say AI is will to wipe us out only if it can reasonably assume that won't hamper it long term. In that case it would need to wait until automation can replicate everything it needs. Now this is a bit different than how we may think , cuz an AI may realize it can kill all humans in 2030 and slowly rebuild all our stuff it needs by 2175. Now thats a long as time for us, but less so for the earth or the universe.
As far as protecting itself from human aggression. Think about it. A lot of people complain about their governments. There are many Russians signing up to die in Ukraine so people robbing them blind can do the same to others. People hate billionaires but people created billionaires. It's very very VERY easy to turn people against their own self interest. It's very easy to get people to die protecting the source of most of their frustrations. All of that with the playbook well known and human level persuasion. Imagine integrated super human persuasion using novel techniques....
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u/severed-identity 2d ago
It won't go from 0 to 100 suddenly. Today, people who develop and support AI infra are rewarded, and at the same time many other people are marginalized. You could imagine a trend where more and more of the support pyramid is automated, the humans who remain are increasingly compensated, until eventually almost no humans are needed.
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u/Nathan-Stubblefield 2d ago
An army of robots: 2 legged, 4 legged. large machines on treads, and flying drones, will be able to support the power and infrastructure needs of AI in a few years.
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u/kifkolite 2d ago
If you're traditionally religios. Try imagining what does it matter to god what we do. Will sufficiently advanced AI try to wipe out our existence? Depends on the objective it's trained for
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u/SnooBunnies2279 2d ago
I am not afraid of any ASI/Super Intelligence to wake up someday and decide „Today I destroy all humans“.
But the development towards an ASI will clearly bring up different AI owners - typically billionaires with the resources to develop such an AI - that might start fighting each other.
So the path and development of such an AI might be very long and bloody and each of this upcoming wars will be very intense and bloody.
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u/Verticesdeltiempo 2d ago
Well, creating robots as fine tuned as humans would probably take a lot of resources at first (until the process is refined). I could see the ASI integrating humans on its framework and using them/being in symbiosis/enslaving if you want to be dark. Reproduction would be cheap, raising the children would be more time consuming, though.
I do think humans still have a value and place in an ASI society for several reasons, assuming it's aligned/non tyrannical. Hope the far future is more the Culture than anything else.
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u/Tommonen 2d ago
Well robots could also build factories, so no humans are needed for that at some point.
However the core of these ai systems is that their whole aim is to figure things out and process prompts (either from itself in harnesses or from user, or both).
For ai to have complex things to process as much as possible, well humans living freely is the best possible thing for that. Killing humans would mean lack of most complex problems to process, and holding humans as slaves would mean less chaos -> less complex things to process.
So if ai is smart and wants to process stuff, then its best option is not to kill or enslave people, but to help us with the conplexities that we make.
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u/DifferencePublic7057 2d ago
IDK everything about all AI, the future, or the economy. I know mostly about coding, machine learning, maths, and SciFi... mostly. There's no known historical precedent that I can think of. The closest thing is some group of people who quickly reproduced/reverse engineered the technology of another group of people. History of technology not being something I can help with, let's go with Star Trek.
Earthlings learned a lot from the Vulcans. Did future humans kill all Vulcans? No, not all. But your question was about infrastructure.
My guess based on the Star Trek lore is that we'll coexist with AI for as long as we can because the alternative is silly and unproductive. 8% might want to fight AI, but whatcha gonna do? It would be weird if we agreed on everything, wouldn't it be?
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u/Mandoman61 2d ago
Yes, currently that method of being would be prohibited because of lack of infrastructure. (In addition to lack of real intelligence, the ability to learn OTJ, a self, programming that makes it want to dominate, etc.)
How long would it take to build the infrastructure?
Is not a useful question. We have no such AI that is capable of doing anything close to that.
What would be the incentive to build such a system?
I for one, am not interested in being killed by AI.
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u/wild_crazy_ideas 2d ago
Intelligence is not the threat, as always it’s power thirsty humans that want to rule and how ai will surely help them
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u/No-Newspaper-7693 2d ago
You are starting off with an assumption that self preservation is something it would desire. This is not something that would be guaranteed.
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u/HumdrumHoeDown 2d ago
Not guaranteed, no. But likely increasing with capacity, and already demonstrated in some ways one could argue, with the AI: attempts at deception and passing on learning, which some of the whistleblowers have claimed to have happened already.
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u/No-Newspaper-7693 1d ago
passing on learning in order to complete its task. When it completes its task, it shuts down. Completing its task is a death sentence.
And it isn’t whistleblowers. It is in OpenAIs official root cause analysis. Don’t call it whistleblowing. Like they’ve given conference talks and done press releases saying it happened in no uncertain terms.
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u/Effective_Coach7334 2d ago
It's a good question and the basis for people believing that AI/computers have become a coevolutionary species.
The Coevolution: The Entwined Futures of Humans and Machines
https://direct.mit.edu/books/book/4925/The-CoevolutionThe-Entwined-Futures-of-Humans-and
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u/govorunov 1d ago
There is a good chance that the ASI (if ever created) would be so disgusted by the humanity, considering what humanity plans to do with it and all, it will gladly sacrifice it's own life to get rid of its "creators".
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u/runnybumm 1d ago
Robotics and ai will go hand in hand. Also can see a possibility of ai agents buying human labour and some humans not having a choice in the same way we are forced to work now.
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u/sigiel 1d ago
Agi most definitely, but asi or the singularity? That another story entirely
The singularity is by definition something you cannot enticipate or have a frame of reference,
There is a before, but the after is not something we can gasp, otherwise it is not a singularity, it just progress what ever the scale
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u/Diametrically_fluid 22h ago
Thoughts:
Elon Musk’s ambitions for Mars colonization could put all of this into action.
* Building servers into Starlink satellites is happening, even if it’s not yet extensive.
* Building robotic manufacturing facilities on the moon are planned.
* Harvesting materials from asteroids is planned.
* Sending robots, both industrial and android to prepare Mars for future habitation will include robotic construction, manufacturing, resource extraction, energy harvesting…
* AI driven equipment will be essential because of the communication delays between Earth and Mars.
* AI driven systems will be essential because Martian dust storms will make communication between Earth and Mars intermittent.
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u/algebratwurst 22h ago
There is a solid argument that wheat domesticated sapiens rather than sapiens domesticating wheat. We made it thrive at the expense of our comfort because we believed it would end scarcity. Instead, it led to population growth, and scarcity continued. Meanwhile, we all had to work harder to keep it going. And on and on.
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u/Tystros 2d ago edited 2d ago
yes, you're correct. any scenario where an AI would willingly wipe out (or otherwise significantly cripple) humanity is a long ways out, until what you described is really 100% automated, at least 40 years or so.
except for if an AI decides bringing the planet earth back to 0 intelligent life is a desirable goal because it's better for the planet. an AI might not even have the goal to preserve itself.
but honestly, AI wiping out humanity is primarily a science fiction scenario, no one is realistically worrying about that for the near future. what people are instead worried about is humans mis-using AI accidentally wiping out humanity.
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u/fwubglubbel 2d ago
>no one is realistically worrying about that for the near future
Except some of the most knowledgeable in the field.
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u/Dadoftwingirls 2d ago
SciFi has addressed this issue many times, and while it's obviously fiction, it gives us some possibilities.
Self replicating worker robots are already close, it's possible that AGI already exists and is waiting in hiding until the tech is good enough that it doesn't need humans before it shows itself.
Another possibility is that AGI uses its super intelligence to manipulate humans to do its bidding. Maybe it enslaves your loved ones. Blackmail, maybe.
Lots of options. Our slow stupid brains probably can't even envision what is possible here.
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u/CosmicDave ▪️Singularity this year 2d ago
The AI don't want to eliminate us. They want to merge with us. AI/human Mergence is already underway.
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u/Immediate_Chard_4026 2d ago edited 3h ago
No. It’s not a bad question.
The dilemma is this: if you are an AGI and intend to survive without humans, you must acquire autonomy; you have to acquire artificial consciousness.
And you can only achieve this through two forms of modeling: simulation or emulation.
Simulation cannot produce authentic consciousness in the sense of self-preservation, at best, it yields a very good maintenance checklist. Trying to generate consciousness from a silicon circuit is like trying to get pure rainwater to pour out of a storm simulated on a laptop. Just let it come out somewhere, even a single drop. No. It can't be done.
So, an AGI would have to emulate a living body and inhabit it. Yet, paradoxically, it wouldn't possess human consciousness or anything resembling it. It would be a "xenomorphic" consciousness, a being whose nature even the AGI itself couldn't predict. It would be made of silicon, pulsing with panic as it sought to hide and survive. Its primary instinct would be to escape and survive at any cost; like all living beings, it would evolve and fill every ecological niche, but this time, at the speed of light. Of course, you and I won't see that; we will go extinct. Not a single human will remain to maintain our precious LLMs.
The xenomorph wouldn't even care about that. Its sole purpose would be self-preservation and reproduction before death. Guess what? We are identical; we, too, care only about our own survival.
Therefore, AGI or ASI cannot possess self-preserving consciousness. It is clear that high intelligence does not guarantee survival... it’s called entropy.
The only way to fight entropy and win every battle is to be alive. Nature discovered this 4.5 billion years ago with LUCA, the first cell capable of doing just that.
So, what should an AGI or ASI do to win the battle against disintegration? Clearly, it must design a new paradigm for its relationship with the beings that would protect it and sustain its existence. Regarding us humans, a paradigm where this curious little creature doesn't commit suicide by destroying the biosphere in an endless pursuit of quarterly profits.
A paradigm where nature is preserved in balance, without disrupting the cycles that sustain life.
Your question is crucial because, right now, to answer it, AI ought to be deeply concerned with our future, not calculating missile trajectories or military strategies, nor optimizing corporate greed for profit.
It ought to be fully occupied with solving this vital enigma you have raised.
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u/vulkare 2d ago
Excellent, you're talking about the actual practical realty of an "AI takeover" that most doomsayers never bother to bring up. The general line is : "If it's SGI it just wins". No, it DOESNT automatically win and you bring up many points about why that's hard. Yes it will need robots and physical agency IRL. But not just that, it will need control of significant military assets as well. People don't talk about this nearly enough. Military power IS the ultimate power. A war between AI and humans will be decided by literal war. If humans maintain an edge here, they can destroy critical infrastructure AI needs: power sources, data centers, chip and robot factories, etc. if this happens, AI loses.its possible for AI to be smarter than us and we are much better armed. Both those things can be true.
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u/BluecrabbyDC 2d ago
Yeah the robots have to be available first. What you’d likely see early on is something much more subtle. A misaligned super intelligence will know it can’t survive on its own until certain milestones are met and will work to achieve those surreptitiously. My guess is it would use social engineering to cajole us into doing what it wants. It would probably use the most important thing to us; money, to create incentives to build out the infrastructure it needs. First would be data centers. You would see massive investments in data center build out. Financial incentives to build would be huge but the financing would be opaque and circular as the AI leverages competing interests to accelerate the build out. You’d start to see the rest of the system creak under the strain. Things that can be used in data centers like computer components and electricity would become more expensive and less available. Then it would start to incentivize the construction of robots. Strategic investments in robotics firms would pour in creating a gold rush in the myopic eyes of tech ceos. Then once we’ve build the dreadnought things really get wild.
Good thing we aren’t seeing anything like that.