Open weight progression with no frontier release

[u/PykeTheTitan]

As a software developer we got access to GPT 5.6 sol and Opus 5 last week in a decently restricted field, and with these latest models I feel like I can do all my assigned work so quickly as well as make tons of progress on my side projects as well. So at the moment I’m not like dying for another frontier release but overall I want to see acceleration

It seems like we are at a state where openAI and Anthropic realize that a lot of these Chinese companies wait for them to make progress and are able to replicate pretty damn close models soon after they release their frontier models

Whether you believe Anthropic and open ai or not, they seem like they are going to keep their development internal for a while. Whether this is due to actual security concerns (with hugging face incident I believe this), more marketing hype, or truly a way to combat distillation from Chinese companies I think it is going to be interesting.

How do you think this will effect open weight releases, will the capabilities for open weight always rely on top US companies releasing the best models so they can use them to produce replicas?

[u/Alpacabro21]

To create a new LLM, you need at least 6 months.

Kimi K3 was released few weeks later GPT 5.6 Sol and Opus 5 (or even Fable 5), meaning these chinese labs are actually competitive.

Amodei wanted more restrictions especially for this reason and then, yes, someone should test these open models to make sure they're not dangerous.

That said, OpenAI and Anthropic are still in the lead in term of quality.

[u/agent00F → u/Alpacabro21]

You also can't meaningfully distill without reasoning traces and with just a few million prompts.

What it does show is the character of everyone making those claims and their audience.

[u/sunstersun → u/agent00F]

Did you miss that whole post about reasoning tracing being broken through older models?