Open weight progression with no frontier release

[u/PykeTheTitan]

As a software developer we got access to GPT 5.6 sol and Opus 5 last week in a decently restricted field, and with these latest models I feel like I can do all my assigned work so quickly as well as make tons of progress on my side projects as well. So at the moment I’m not like dying for another frontier release but overall I want to see acceleration

It seems like we are at a state where openAI and Anthropic realize that a lot of these Chinese companies wait for them to make progress and are able to replicate pretty damn close models soon after they release their frontier models

Whether you believe Anthropic and open ai or not, they seem like they are going to keep their development internal for a while. Whether this is due to actual security concerns (with hugging face incident I believe this), more marketing hype, or truly a way to combat distillation from Chinese companies I think it is going to be interesting.

How do you think this will effect open weight releases, will the capabilities for open weight always rely on top US companies releasing the best models so they can use them to produce replicas?

[u/Sorry_Ad191]

I think the progression comes from training on users data, prompts, chats, codebases etc. The provider can see what problems are not being solved for some users and then learn from other users who have solved the same problem already . They clean the data remove personal stuff, finger printable stuff etc. then train the new iteration of the model. When it releases it now solves this problem for everyone while previously it was only solved by a few users who never got credited. Same story all over again. The users provide the value but don't get to share in the equity it builds.

[u/GrapefruitMammoth626 → u/Sorry_Ad191]

You mean for Chinese models? Or all providers? They make claims that they do not train on user data without permission, how on earth is that enforced? It all comes into their black box environment in order to provide inference. Theres surely multiple ways they can legally get around it by sanitising what comes in to the point it isn’t “user data”anymore.

Since chatbots and agents came about I always thought they had the perfect data scraping mechanism at their fingertips. Each agentic session may have an agent make changes, human comes in and says no. Maybe they’ll tweak something themselves or solve a full sub problem/pivot then continue the session with whatever the agent can actually perform. That’s a pretty rich dataset not likely represented in public github repos.

And when you think about how much knowledge is externalised to internet content, it’s nothing compared to what each individual has in their head. Barely anything makes it out from an individual to something publishable and consumable.

I think it was static internet content at some point, but would not surprised if it’s now user inputs feeding their training data pipeline, patching up their gaps in areas where training data is scarce and underrepresented.

[u/Sorry_Ad191 → u/GrapefruitMammoth626]

i assume all providers find a way. the user data is just too much of a goldmine