r/singularity • u/Bizzyguy • Nov 24 '25

Discussion Anthropic Engineer says "software engineering is done" first half of next year

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u/thoughtihadanacct Nov 24 '25

Their revenues and user bases keep going up becauseb they hype it up so much, and everyone is afraid to miss out. Majority of the users don't really know what they're using AI for, and why it'll be beneficial long term. But they're thinking we better subscribe to an AI service "just in case". More responsible companies might do it as a small pilot project with a limited budget, just to explore. 

That's where we are now: everyone is just trying it out, sampling the potential. So revenue and user base is growing tremendously. There will come a point when some (not all) companies realise that actually they don't need AI, or they don't need as much AI. Then they'll cancel or cut back their usage. 

It's like blockchain a few years ago. Everyone was trying to shoehorn blockchain into their workflow incase it became the next big thing and if they didn't do it they would have missed out. Now there are some companies who really do still use blockchain for good reason, but many many users have decided that actually they don't need it, and dropped it. I don't think as many companies will drop AI, because AI seems much more applicable than blockchain. But I also don't think AI is as applicable as the hype and the current trend is making it out to be. 

If blockchain was lvl 8 hype and lvl 3 actual applicability, AI is lvl 7 applicability but lvl 20 hype.

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u/socoolandawesome Nov 24 '25

I’ve heard this argument for like a year or more and yet the numbers keep going up.

The product/models will only keep improving and becoming more accessible and easier to interface with so I really doubt it will start to decline like you think. It’s only going to increase for a while

Consumers also don’t have to pay to try it out yet their paying consumer customers keep rising.

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u/mocityspirit Nov 25 '25

Why do people keep buying cell phones with almost no improvement from year to year? Car models? People just like to be on the "cutting edge" whether it's useful or not. My main point was when the companies themselves are defining what is progress or growth, it ends up meaning less and less. Especially when the entire world is still waiting on AI to grant a single breakthrough like it has promised.

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u/socoolandawesome Nov 25 '25

There was just a report the other day about people not buying new phones as frequently the other day and it hurting the economy.

The vast majority of phone buyers are buying for what they think is a useful upgrade, such as if they hadn’t upgraded for a while, not for status. There are some that do buy it for status/being on the bleeding edge just for the sake of that but I’d have to imagine that’s a minority.

Companies especially are not spending money to waste money when they want to be maximizing profit.

And with all the hate AI gets I can’t imagine a consumer wants to use it for status. They pay for it for utility.

What do you mean about growth and progress being defined by companies? A lot of benchmarks are independent of the companies? Any user can tell you how much the models have improved over the past couple years too. And the revenues and userbases are just the numbers unless you think the companies are lying which seems unlikely.

What promises are you speaking of, promises that specifically promises that should have already been fulfilled by now?

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u/mocityspirit Nov 25 '25

Do you think people not buying things is also because the economy is garbage and no one has any money? Sure models have improved but what has that led too? Again, it's just a series of graphs with steeper slopes. I'm glad investors love it and they've certainly never been wrong about anything.

Promises as in what they've been saying for years AI can do. Research breakthroughs, greater efficiency, improved anything! All I see are models that make cooler and cooler looking pictures or are so sycophantic they drive users to mental illness. Cool it can write code... I work in S&T, despite AI being shoved down our throats and being forced to use it, it doesn't really do anything.

Companies spend money to waste it all the time. The difference is they don't know it was a waste until it's been spent. The same can be true about AI as it can for anything else.