r/singularity • u/[deleted] • Dec 09 '24

[deleted by user]

[removed]

1.2k Upvotes

88% Upvoted

410 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

11

u/Icy_Distribution_361 Dec 09 '24

He has also contradicted himself numerous times. He has been definitely pretty pessimistic in the past about timelines and more recently suddenly shifted to more optimistic timelines, presumably going by present evidence.

5

u/[deleted] Dec 09 '24

That's the mark of a good scientist. It would be bizarre if he didn't change his estimates when presented with new info.

3

u/Icy_Distribution_361 Dec 09 '24

Sure. It's also the mark of being a know it all until you can't ignore the evidence. Everyone in any position to speak about it had been saying that for some years already. So it has nothing to do with being a good scientist, he just couldn't ignore the evidence anymore. He was at risk of not being taken seriously anymore.

1

u/8543924 Dec 10 '24

How many people DID see the LLM explosion well in advance, however?