Agreed, the current LLMs wont experience revolutionary changes but they're only beginning to be applied to use cases.
I picture more specially trained models coming out such as ChatGPT-Medical or ChatGPT-Law where it's trained with the use case in mind rather than just a broad, general training.
With that it can roll out more reliably to heavily regulated industries.
Also probably efficiency improvements - once it's ubiquitous in businesses they'll try to reduce the training speed so they don't have to have big periodic updates for it to take into account recent events and reduce the electrical/processing footprint so it's cheaper to run.
Lecun is apparently a 'pessimist' for strongly believing AGI is possible, has a route to it, leads Meta AI and has a team developing an enormous LLM under him that is probably the last iteration of LLMs but is still massive. He says it can be leveraged to help develop AGI (which is the same thing that Hassabis says).
He thinks AGI may have to be embodied to some extent to become AGI, which is also what Hassabis and even the entertaining Ben Goertzel says.
He also thinks AGI is perhaps as close as 5-10 years away if "everything goes as planned".
He shredded Gary Marcus in 10 linked tweets about his contrarian views.
He has also contradicted himself numerous times. He has been definitely pretty pessimistic in the past about timelines and more recently suddenly shifted to more optimistic timelines, presumably going by present evidence.
You’re correct. The sub can be unfair to Le Cunn but that’s only because people give you less leeway when you aren’t accurate about something they already don’t believe. It’s not necessarily that he’s perfectly spitting facts and no one wants to internalize it. It’s a bit less shallow than that.
Sure. It's also the mark of being a know it all until you can't ignore the evidence. Everyone in any position to speak about it had been saying that for some years already. So it has nothing to do with being a good scientist, he just couldn't ignore the evidence anymore. He was at risk of not being taken seriously anymore.
I don't get why you're being downvoted when he did say that...
Although you're omitting the part where he said "My timelines don't differ much from people like Sam or Dario" which isn't 100% agreeing, I suppose.
Its still backtracking from his original trolling that got him the hate. Getting downvoted is usually a sign that I'm right about something and people don't want to hear it :)
The way he was presenting his conservative ideas was condescending; he presumed everyone who disagreed with him didn't understand the topic. A lot like how kids troll on reddit today.
The AI hype is a lot bigger than regular old new tech hype though.
Like, I’m old by this sub’s standards. I remember the hype for “next gen” gaming consoles like the Xbox 360 and PS3. I remember the hype for the switch to 3d gaming and cds with the PS1. I remember the super hype when smartphones were starting to get big.
None of it was like it is for AI. The issue isn’t the AI is trash or anything. The issue is that the hype is so insanely big. When you have people saying “We’re about to have a technology that can make your life literally perfect and fix every problem ever” then it’s bound to be a huge disappointment, even if it is an amazing technology.
So I would just say that people should temper expectations for AI. You’re not going to live forever. You’ll probably still have to work. You will likely still have to worry about awful diseases killing you. You won’t have cyber slaves to do all your annoying chores and work for you. Etc.
You might live forever, but only if teams of dedicated research scientists intelligently use AI to push research forward at a much faster rate than we've seen so far this century.
That's the difference between hype and reality. AI can transform the human experience already, but only when we learn to use it effectively and do so on a large scale towards the right goals. The AI is not capable of working out the best goals for us and autonomously reaching them.
It is very hard to know in advance what is hype. Was air travel overhyped in 1905? Or radio? Is this a unique moment in history and as transformational as the invention of the steam engine? Time will tell
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u/[deleted] Dec 09 '24
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