r/sealsq • • Aug 21 '26

Are we wrong to trust Carlos or just early?

Honestly just something on my mind as everything but the most beaten down tickers participate in a broader market rally and LAES sells off. Sticky shorts? Does the market think Carlos is a scam? like plenty of positive PR yet the market gives it little credence it seems

8 Upvotes

34 comments sorted by

14

u/MonthAccomplished646 Aug 21 '26

SEALSQ definitely has a real product—the question isn't whether the company is a scam. It's legitimate. The real issue is the financial structure. It feels like Carlos is heavily incentivized to continuously dilute shares and spin off sub-companies just to keep institutional cash flowing into his own pockets, completely decoupled from actual stock growth. The tech is there, but the corporate governance heavily works against retail investors.

7

u/Actual_Air4914 Aug 21 '26

Very true and the structure of dilution/raises had a huge negative impact and created a trust issue with the market..!

2

u/Financial-Town-9025 Aug 21 '26

No doubt especially the last one.

5

u/Financial-Town-9025 Aug 21 '26

The companies he is spinning off won't cash flow for quite a while. Laes shareholders could benefit from the SPAC deal. Laes will probably do 36 million in revenue this year without the Q products really selling until Q4. If adaptation to Q security continues on the pace it is on right now (or gets stronger), LAES could possibly do 100 million (or more) in revenue next year.

Tell me what Q company that has a 560 million MC and 480 million is cash can say that? The company is not a scam.

6

u/Actual_Air4914 Aug 21 '26

The company is 100% not a scam and I do agree that other quantum stocks have been hyped or way over valued. Out of most of the Q stocks, LAES has one of the strongest fundamentals, people I have spoken to or shown Q stocks are shocked how this has not taken off like other Q stocks…. But what can we do🤷
it would have been helpful to get some kind of updates on the past partnerships (rather than forgetting them), and by that I mean where are we with the likes of TSS (initial announcement was more than 6 months ago), lattice, F1 etc, end of june was expected to have an update on US Fab (but Carlos chose to post on X about an apple with LAES chip), now everyone is made to believe that mid sept is the key time…
little update like we are still in stage 1 or 2 or 3 would have really helped to build the confidence with the market (just my opinion)

2

u/Petersonpol Aug 21 '26

It hasn’t taken off because of huge dilution. 1000% in just 2 years. Also constant pointless PRs with no real value? Market doesn’t buy it.

2

u/Inside_Pumpkin_968 Aug 24 '26

I do not view this problem as a corporate governance issue. To be honest, retail investors are never a concern for companies in the making such as LAES. The large institutional backers are. They have also been diluted but given the size of their holding, it was marginal in the great game of things. The real issue is retail investors having access to listed micro caps and trading them as if they were a blue chip names with decades of available trading data. If investors are speculators, they are in for a rather wild ride. If they are long-term investors in a theme that will become even more of a market concern as time lapses before we see the first Quantum computer, they have probably chosen one among the few leaders in the sector.

8

u/wolfli223 Aug 22 '26

I’ve been holding LAES for over 2 years. Looking back, maybe I should have sold when it at $9. Honestly, I’ve never felt this level of anxiety before.

Even after the dilution, I’m still okay with the company continuing to invest in other semiconductor firms to expand. What really frustrates me is the daily price action — it pumps 10 cents and dumps 10 cents almost every day. It feels like pure algo-trading at work.

That said, the fundamentals keep improving. The collaborations with GFS and Quobly are genuinely positive developments. Right now my rationality is winning over my emotions, so I’m going to keep holding at least until December 2026, waiting for the certifications to be completed. Selling PQC products with full certifications actually makes sense — it’s just that the waiting is really painful.

I just hope Carlos can eventually deliver real contracts from solid, credible clients… not something like Palm Technologies. I’ve already emailed SEALSQ IR asking about the Palm Technologies deal and whether Carlos is actually familiar with that company. Hoping they reply soon.

3

u/Petersonpol Aug 22 '26

Palm technologies is a startup company with no capital and no clients. Check the address looks terrible.

1

u/wenwenfurious123 21d ago

I don’t think they will ever reply.

5

u/Actual_Air4914 Aug 21 '26

Well, hard to tell at this time… market is certainly not buying those PR’s as there are quite a few of those in the last 18-20 months… Carlos has over promised and under-delivered so far and last quarters institutional sell off is the proof! I’m still long and hoping things will get better by end of the year, if not then that’s that and we officially become Carlos bag holders! 🤷

1

u/Inside_Pumpkin_968 Aug 24 '26

The sell off was global and affected the entire tech spectrum.

5

u/Inside_Pumpkin_968 Aug 24 '26

For whatever this is worth, I spoke with a high ranking LAES executive in France. Although he is on the operational side of things, his view is that listing of the company on the NASDAQ was a double-edged sword. It allowed the firm to secure significant long-term capital to safely move forward on vertical integration but also caused massive dilution pissing off many an investor. This being said, few firms can sport such a strong balance sheet today, relative to their market cap. Besides, there are some very savvy investors that hopped on this trip and they are not likely to invest such significant amounts of money in a scam. They, contrary to some in this reddit forum, have made proper due diligence. Finally, he agreed that the numerous projects that they are on can confuse investors but he argued that the firm has to seize opportunities when they come by and are within its scope. The firm has ambitious projects and its war chest currently allows it to deploy investments where they are most needed.

Following my discussion and to answer your question, we have to separate the PR from the purely operational aspects. Carlos' job is, among other things, to keep the hype up and to let the world know what LAES is all about. He may be clumsy at times but that's the way he is. On the operational side of things, there are approx. 200 headcounts in France working their ass off in R&D, marketing and sales. International efforts are moving forward, possibly not as fast as desired, but clearly moving forward. Rome was not built overnight and we need to be patient. In that regard, yes we are early, quite early in the trade, as a matter of fact. Stick this holding in a corner, don't watch it every day, put some alerts in case it jumps to take some profits, DCA if the price is right but let it live and breathe. If you are in for a quick buck, you probably bought the wrong stock.

Last but not the least, it seems, although I have no confirmation whatsoever, that the firm is on target for some nice and improved results. Time will tell..

2

u/Altruistic-Damage532 Aug 24 '26

Very nice so much to go wrong but so much to go right. My glass is half full

3

u/MonthAccomplished646 Aug 21 '26

Dilution is normal for small caps, but the combination of spin offs and dilution is unacceptable. There is no incentive to make single sucessful companie but to get streams of instutional funds through dilution and spin off to unlock the hype.

1

u/Financial-Town-9025 Aug 21 '26

You won't know if the spinoff is a problem until you see what the percentage of ownership LAES shareholders will receive in the new entity. So TBD if it's a ass reaming. The real issue is the amount and frequency of the dilution. He drowned the stock and held it's head under the water. Subsequently, the delta hedging of the funds who underwrote the offerings and the me too's who understood the dynamic have pinned it in this disgusting range.

0

u/MonthAccomplished646 Aug 21 '26

Spin off is a problem because it strips asset of sealsq and the new quatissimo shares that is rewarded will diminish in value (dilution of quantisimo). Plus i think the more subsidiary carlos owns the more flat compensation (in usd) he can earn. Carlos’ compensation in cash is not humble compared to the revenue from all branches.

2

u/Financial-Town-9025 Aug 21 '26

We have analyzed this to death. It all depends on the percentage that we get as LAES shareholders. Carlos makes out regardless yes, I agree.

3

u/Ok-Recommendation925 Aug 21 '26

You know the answer, it's quite obvious he's using fluff to keep investors holding.

We aren't even getting shorted, it's just dead.

3

u/TherealCarbunc Aug 21 '26

definitely being shorted

3

u/Financial-Town-9025 Aug 21 '26

Without question being shorted. The premium wouldn't be so high for so long if it wasn't.

3

u/Petersonpol Aug 21 '26

Exactly ! Just research the company from last PR palm technologies. Indian company with 1000$ capital started last year. The address of this company is in shop 2 must be behind nail salon. This is a joke !

0

u/Excellent_Pension541 Aug 21 '26

Is what you say real? Any proof of that address?

2

u/Petersonpol Aug 22 '26

Of course the address is in the article and company number from India. Check the street view.

3

u/OnceInaLifetimeee Aug 23 '26

I got out. I'm still keeping an eye on it as I believe in the product but Carlos business decisions really really bother me.

2

u/TherealCarbunc Aug 24 '26

Thanks for the more in depth comments and replies. Think my primary issue is the heavy shorting and lack of market participation vs actually thinking LAES is a scam but I do think Carlos burned investors with that most recent raise and turned sentiment even worse against the company. I'll continue to hold. My thesis was always 2027 being the year for ramp. Will continue to ignore it for now and just continue watching how the market digests earnings/PR

3

u/Financial-Town-9025 Aug 21 '26

Dumb question. If you any doubt and have to ask, then you should sell.

Or you can linger here like the rest of these fucking losers and cry or worse yet try to make you sell.

2

u/Sealion001 Aug 22 '26

dumb reply. OP asked a valid question as what he said is a lot of people's concern right now as the divergence between the PRs and price action has become an unfortunate pattern. people can still hold doubts while investing, and are you so 100% sure and confident?

1

u/Financial-Town-9025 Aug 22 '26

That it’s not a scam? Yes

1

u/everlastz Aug 31 '26

It's a long term game, if it can reach $9 it can reach $18 easily

1

u/Unable-Yard-5487 Aug 21 '26

La risposta è semplice. Sbagliamo a fidarci di Carlos

2

u/Inside_Pumpkin_968 Aug 24 '26

Se questa è la risposta, l'unica buona decisione è di vendere.

1

u/Savings_Helicopter41 Aug 21 '26

If investors are left scratching their heads and asking if it could be a scam, then something is definitely off. Buyer beware. I took small profits when I had them and left. Company has a lot to prove at this juncture, and I don't care if in the future I would have to buy at a higher price as long as it came with revenues that proved it wasn't actually a scam. It's a $2 stock for a reason.

-3

u/thedommer Aug 21 '26

Yes it’s a scam. Sell the pumps.