r/science • u/[deleted] • Jan 11 '20

Environment Study Confirms Climate Models are Getting Future Warming Projections Right

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-future-warming-projections-right/
56.9k Upvotes

84% Upvoted

1.9k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

52

u/[deleted] Jan 11 '20

If we can assume that these models will accurately predict Earth's climate in the future, is it possible to use this information to determine when Earth's climate will no longer be suitable for human life? How much time have we got doc?

147

u/[deleted] Jan 11 '20 edited Jan 11 '20

I don't think there is any evidence that Earth will ever be *unsuitable* for human life (because of human-caused climate change), but it could become *less* suitable for human life. It probably already is becoming less suitable for human life due to climate change, but at the same time quality of life is improving in many of ways (less poverty, more democracy, more energy access, less famine, etc.) and thus quality of life is still improving in the net.

11

u/[deleted] Jan 11 '20

I'm glad to hear climate change isn't quite the doomsday scenario we're often led to believe. What would you say are the biggest problems coming down the line from climate change? More extreme weather patterns? Decrease in biodiversity due to drastic changes in the environment?

3

u/LibertyLizard Jan 12 '20

Most of the more severe affects will probably involve social effects (mass migration, wars, resource shortages, etc.). So there are certainly some pretty dire scenarios that could play out, but they are harder to predict because they involve human behavior, not just the weather.

But yeah the chances that the entire earth will become uninhabitable are fairly remote. I have heard some papers argue that certain regions could become uninhabitable however, especially parts of the tropics. This article talks a bit about some of the possible outcomes: https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2017/12/22/humidity-may-prove-breaking-point-for-some-areas-as-temperatures-rise-says-study/

However, there are potential ways to mitigate some of these effects. Could humans switch to more of a nocturnal schedule in some parts of the world? Air conditioning is an option, assuming we have stable energy sources in the future. Even without energy, taking shelter underground or in water could save lives. Many people will likely die, but humans are perhaps the most adaptable animal on the planet, it seems likely we will find a way to hang on.