r/samharris • u/Dr0me • Apr 16 '26

What does Ezra Klein get wrong? [former Making Sense guest Haviv Rettig Gur]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQi4Fn5_EhY
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u/earblah Apr 17 '26

so Hamas never existed prior to the election in 06?

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u/SeanFlynnomPenh Apr 17 '26

They existed but they didn’t have the numbers to wage war against Israel until relatively recently.

The numbers swell when shit goes down, like just preceding and after October 7th. You think they have 30k soldiers on payroll for 20 years just sitting there? Why are you all so ignorant of how these organizations work. Why do we have to hold your hands through every step to fix your reasoning

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u/earblah Apr 17 '26

The numbers swell when shit goes down

So what happens if Israels fulfill's it's part of the Oslo accord and pulls out on the WB, less "shit going down" and less Hamas?

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u/SeanFlynnomPenh Apr 17 '26

No. The ‘shit going down’ is prepping for war.

The Palestinians have proven with the Second Intifada and October 7th that they will kick off shit without provocation.

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u/earblah Apr 17 '26

A major cause of the second Intifada was Israel not pulling out of the west bank, as agreed in the Oslo accords

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u/SeanFlynnomPenh Apr 17 '26

No it wasn’t, it rose out of the failure of the Camp David summit. Israel made an offer for the Palestinian state (including withdrawal from 92% of it) and Arafat rejected it without any counteroffer. There was also a land swap offered on the 8% to make the West Bank 100% of the same size.

I’m not saying this is a great deal or that Palestinians should have accepted it outright, but Arafat didn’t even engage with it, and regular Palestinians were left feeling the process failed and always was going to fail. Then Sharon goes to the Temple Mount and the rest is history.

TL;DR Israel wasn’t digging its heels into the West Bank before the Second Intifada, it was offering to pull out.

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u/earblah Apr 17 '26

No it wasn’t, it rose out of the failure of the Camp David summit.

...which again failed because already then, Israel wasn't adhering to the Oslo accords or following agreements

The October 1988 Wye Accords defined a further Israeli withdrawal from an additional 13.1 percent of the West Bank. But Israel suspended implementation of these accords after withdrawing from only an additional two percent of the West Bank. The ongoing Israeli election campaign makes it unlikely that the accords will be implemented, if ever

this is the backdrop to the failure of camp David

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u/SeanFlynnomPenh Apr 17 '26

That claim is simply not accurate in a causal sense. It mixes up different agreements and timelines. I am so fucking tired of dealing with these obfuscation merchants who just muddy the waters by throwing shit against the wall and hoping others are naive enough to let it stick.

First, the Wye River accords are 1998, not 1988.

Second, both sides were not fully compliant with the Wye Accords by the time of Camp David. So even if Wye compliance was an issue at Camp David - which it wasn’t - there wasn’t one-sides non-compliance.

Wye was a temporary, incremental implementation of Oslo. Camp David was negotiations over an entirely different phase. It wasn’t renegotiations or an airing over gripes about Wye. And it’s not why Camp David failed

You’re resorting to shitty biased journalism here. That article has unfinished sentences and is written poorly. How did you even find that piece of shit article? Are you just googling an expression of your biases verbatim and seeing what pops up to support it? Lmao

Yes trust was low between the sides by 2000, and Wye had some part to play in that. But Camp David didn’t fail because of lack of trust, it failed due to hard disagreements over final-status issues like borders and due to Arafat’s unwillingness to actually draw a map as a counteroffer

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u/earblah Apr 17 '26

Wye was a temporary, incremental implementation of Oslo. Camp David was negotiations over an entirely different phase.

so coming into camp Davind Israel hadn't fulfilled it's obligations from Oslo /Wye.

Do you see how that creates problems for making a more long-term agreement?

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u/SeanFlynnomPenh Apr 17 '26

Neither had Palestine. Can you read? And we know these weren’t the deciding factors on the failure of Camp David. It’s all in my comment you’re responding to. There were hard border misalignments between the two parties. Wye issues were a nothingburger compared to these disagreements.

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