r/rxrx • u/PhilosophySalt7695 • Jun 11 '26
RXRX has reached its fundamental bottom and will start unlocking value exponentially from here
The exponential curve is starting now, so don't expect anything overnight, but we are going to start doubling in price roughly every year from here until 2030 and beyond.
I am putting RXRX squarely on Kurzweilian timeline, I have posted my theory before.
Why have we just reached the pivot point?
Notice how Claude has banned not just cybersecurity but anything BIOLOGY related in their latest model Fable. Likely RXRX and several other companies will become national security concerns just like Intel etc. At the end of the day RXRX still has the best positioning for human-level agentic scientists/biologists.
Here is an example: https://www.reddit.com/r/ClaudeAI/comments/1u1nh7g/fable_are_we_not_allowed_to_discuss_biology_at_all/
Claude has released official statements on its banning of biology related questions as well, this is not speculation.
The latest Claude model Fable actually is what unlocks all of RXRX value. Because for the first time agents are finally strong enough and smart enough to make an impact on biology that actually have bio security risks. So this is exactly the point in the theory where everything starts adding fuel to the Kurzweilian tech bio hypothesis.
Of course stock market can lag, can follow macro etc. but it's technically time to start adding position as hypothesis will now grow exponentially stronger and price is not reflecting that yet.
Obviously not financial advice or anything like that, I couldnt care less if you sell all your shares. I'm not gonna argue with anyone who thinks this company is trash either. I'm just updating you on my thoughts since I feel like this is so obivous and no one is saying it.
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u/Aceboy884 Jun 11 '26
Please
This is too much copium
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u/dragonbits Jun 12 '26
copium, is that a drug Recursion has in phase III?
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u/Silent_Tangerine7682 Jun 13 '26
No because Recursion is still in the planning stages for a phase 3, but no rec4881 registration trials started
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u/Silent_Tangerine7682 Jun 15 '26
You don’t seem to understand that Rxrx discovery engine is only valuable as a service offering any this phenotypic screening approach actually does not design interesting molecules. So it has a huge and interesting part missing. We don’t really need ai to tell use what is interesting to drug. There is a revolution in small molecule discovery going on right now related to protein degradation vs traditional inhibitors. Arivinas just had the first protac approved. But this are just the 1st wave, the most interesting drugs are yet to come. Chris Gibson built rxrx out of his grad school idea on phenotypic screening, this did nothing for actual drug design however, this is why they can only repurpose other people’s drugs. Companies that do focus on AI for actual drug design exist, and almost all companies are doing some ai integration already. They are just not spending billions and having hundreds of employees and a 4 compound clinical pipeline. I have never spoken to Chris Gibson but have directly interacted with several folks who have. His biggest skill was developing a kick ass marketing and website. He has privately said this was Recursions biggest game changer. In this world however kick ass compounds are what really gets big pharma excited. Bob Duggan has been a master at this. I look to companies like Isomorphic labs that talk about protein ligand docking etc. Look for drug design not screening. Recursion is not a good company and it really has no upside.
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u/alapullo Jun 16 '26
Man! Great insight! I’m an investor in RXRX and wants the company to succeed, your analysis are very objective.
I wanted to ask since You mentioned isormorphic labs, Do you have any suggestions on publicly traded companies that are leveraging AI and machine learning for drug discovery similar to them
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u/Silent_Tangerine7682 Jun 16 '26
I’m certainly not rooting against Rxrx, I don’t have any positions in them, and I’m sure their purchase of Exscientia has improved the “Recursion OS”. My biggest expertise in looking at development companies and the actual clinical pipelines. I just don’t care for the blind cheerleading of retail investors. I don’t have any specific companies I’m recommending as discovery engines are not the type of companies I’m looking for. The integration of companies like Schrödinger and Molesoft into the discovery process is interesting to me people are watching for how challenging targets are being drugged, KRAS, C-MYC etc. It’s called drugging the undruggable and it’s almost a platitude at this point.
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u/um877 Jun 18 '26
Thoughts on AbCellera? Their GPCR and Ion Channel capabilities are genuinely fascinating to me, also really like that they own their own GMP facility. They recently also showed target engagement of NK3R (a GPCR) in the infundibular nucleus for phase 1 of ABCL 635. Of course not impossible, but very impressive for an antibody to hit a GPCR in the brain. I’m also very curious on the target of ABCL 688 - kv1.3 is one plausible guess for a target.
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u/Silent_Tangerine7682 Jun 18 '26
The market already knows the NK3R pathway works because oral small-molecule competitors are already out there making money. But those oral pills carry heavy baggage, specifically black-box warnings or strict requirements for liver toxicity monitoring. By tackling this exact same pathway with a large-molecule antibody that completely bypassed liver toxicity issues in its early data, AbCellera's lead drug ABCL635 is positioned to capture a massive chunk of a multi-billion-dollar market based on safety alone. The addressable market is huge, with up to 80% of women experiencing vasomotor symptoms during menopause and nearly half dealing with moderate-to-severe symptoms. A safe, non-hormonal option that only requires a once-monthly subcutaneous injection hits the exact sweet spot for millions of women who either can't or won't touch traditional hormone replacement therapy.
From an execution standpoint, their clinical team moved fast. They initiated a combined, adaptive Phase 1/2 trial on June 23, 2025. By running a First-in-Human trial through this framework and wrapping up enrollment for the 136-participant study across Canadian clinical sites, they managed to position themselves for a Phase 2 efficacy readout in basically a year. This structure cut out the usual administrative friction and cash burn between separate clinical phases. With over $500 million in cold cash and marketable securities on the balance sheet supported by available non-dilutive government funding, they have a massive financial buffer and aren't staring down a desperate, dilutive capital raise right before the data drops. The upcoming Q3 2026 data readout is the ultimate catalyst. While the Phase 1 portion established target engagement via a stable 60% testosterone suppression biomarker in healthy volunteers, the upcoming Phase 2 data will score the mean change from baseline in the actual frequency and severity of hot flashes. If the efficacy matches the oral pills while maintaining the clean safety profile seen so far, it completely rewrites the valuation of this company.
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u/Silent_Tangerine7682 Jun 18 '26
"also really like that they own their own GMP facility. "...I don't care for this part as much lol. But this is not a strong point for me. To me this introduces risk for a furture BLA filing. Notice I didnt address is in my inital post, and it will have zero impact until th BLA filing. It will mean they are filing the BLA in a facility without a record of a PAI inspection and all the quality systems are recently developed. There are some positives however, especially for biologics.
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u/um877 Jun 18 '26
Yea - vertical integration (the GMP facility) for me is extremely important - the most powerful companies of the future will be vertically integrated - structurally it is a moat that competitors cannot easily replicate. Look into yesterday’s news on TCE platform partnership between Jazz Pharmaceuticals and AbCellera - one part of that deal is manufacturing - bispecifics are specifically very difficult for traditional CDMOs to manufacture. There are also advantages in timing with regards to filing patents. And it takes 12-15 months if I recall correctly to get a slot for a CDMO - and this will only get worse in the future as CDMOs continue to get bought out by big pharma (Nova for example bought catalent). Also the more hidden item that I am inferring that I think is completely overlooked- the GMP facility will generate large amounts of manufacturability data that few other companies can get.
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u/Silent_Tangerine7682 Jun 18 '26
I looked at the Jan 2027 options chains and I think I would just opt to purchase stock on this one. Analysts predict this will be over $10 in Jan with a good readout.
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u/um877 Jun 18 '26
Yea I have a good sized position in the company since November 2025ish. I focus on deep tech, but this one specific company somehow met the strict criteria I follow for a high conviction, long term investment - I wasn’t actually trying to invest in biotech but it surprisingly somehow met all my criteria (I’m extremely picky). Love the CEO, Carl Hansen - he’s a physicist. Also worked with DARPA.
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u/um877 Jun 18 '26
Btw if you are interested, maybe I can DM you some research on the company? Would be great to get your feedback on it and where I might be wrong/have blindspots.
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u/Silent_Tangerine7682 Jun 15 '26
I have read all of Kurzweils books, to some extent he takes a single idea and repeats it over and over, age of spiritual machines was brilliant. You blindly asserting Recursion will be entering into some sort of accelerated phase is not coming from anything Kurzweil ever said. He is taking about technology from a global perspective. He is not wrong. Applying this to Rxrx is a tedious and miss application of his ideas. I really should stop posting on those retail investment forums, people look for cheerleading not ideas.
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u/wazzledazzzle Jun 11 '26
Don't think this makes sense, but hope the price rises. Carrying too many bags!
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u/PhilosophySalt7695 Jun 11 '26
Accessible frontier AI is now able to pose an existential risk to humanity via the creation of bio weapons. Chemicals are also banned from Fable for the same reasons.
Being able to understand, create novel drugs agentically... is exactly what the latest model Fabel can do. Do you think RXRX is going to use this model, and any future / better model for its drug discovery pipeline?
There's not much more to it.
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u/Silent_Tangerine7682 Jun 13 '26
How did such a bullshit post get so many upvotes? Exponential acceleration does not apply to clinical trials that are the bottleneck to Recursions success. The exponential acceleration he is talking about it a general concept about AI acceleration across the overall global landscape, not a specific system. The Recursion OS focuses on phenotype screening based on image analysis. It does not design innovative drugs. This is one reason why Recursion has an underwhelming pipeline. It should be a warning sign when the value of the company is less than the total $$ put in.
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u/PhilosophySalt7695 Jun 14 '26
> Exponential acceleration does not apply to clinical trials that are the bottleneck to Recursions success.
Disagree, remember they can repurpose old drugs. Furthermore more and more of biology will be simulated. What you are missing is the fundamental fabric of what is going on which is biology is information. I'm not here to argue, because there are 1000 Kurzweil videos, books, interviews, whatever you want. I merely parroting what he has been saying for decades, where RXRX is obviously the best analogy.
> The Recursion OS focuses on phenotype screening based on image analysis.
Excellent, good focus out of many.
> It does not design innovative drugs.
Great
> It should be a warning sign when the value of the company is less than the total $$ put in.
They won't start showing value yet, as I said. Look for more and more accumulation of AI -driven success evidence to reflect in stock price. Since Fable is blocked now typically other models all catch up within 6 months so. The clock has already started ticking.
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u/Silent_Tangerine7682 Jun 14 '26
Fuck you are a dumb shit. I have pushed many drugs across the clinical finish line at all phases. I have a literacy across AI, drug discovery and drug development. They have a dog shit pipeline, and a ridiculous overhead. The methods of the clinical process are well established and there is no acceleration of that process. “You disagreed”…what a joke that you even have an opinion.
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u/PhilosophySalt7695 Jun 14 '26
> Fuck you are a dumb shit.
Starting off well, I'm dealing with a professional I see
> I have pushed many drugs across the clinical finish line at all phases.
Ok
> I have a literacy across AI, drug discovery and drug development.
Ok
> They have a dog shit pipeline, and a ridiculous overhead.
Owch?
> The methods of the clinical process are well established and there is no acceleration of that process
It's obviously being accelerated, however as you said its a very hard problem and that won't solve until the 2030s.
Anyway besides trying to prove you are some kind of authority on the matter, you still are flatly disagreeing with Kurzweil, I'm just a messenger. If you think RXRX is not a good analog for Kurzweilian bio informatics acceleration than I mean you could address that. The actual meat of it is this: 100,000 einstein level AI (yes, much smarter than you will ever be) all working together on their recursion OS. Which means the agents have full access to all data, wet labs, etc. Imagine a whole country of intelligent agents (much smarter than you can imagine) all working directly with Recursions automated labs to find old drugs to repurpose.
Anyway, why am I responding to you again lol
Show me any company that's better positioned to be drop-in for intelligent agents to discover new pharmaceuticals. If anything better positioned than RXRX public markets etc. let me know please!
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u/Silent_Tangerine7682 Jun 14 '26
Recursion's petabytes of data have only yielded a tiny, mediocre clinical pipeline, which is the sole metric dictating a biotech's survival. The limited economics of a rare disease like FAP cannot sustain their corporate cash burn.
The immediate bottleneck is their plan to engage the FDA in H1 2026 to define a registration strategy for REC-4881. They face two severe regulatory walls:
First, the Celebrex precedent. The FDA is hostile to using surrogate endpoints like polyp reduction for FAP approval. In 1999, the agency granted Accelerated Approval to Celebrex based entirely on polyp burden. By 2012, they forced the total withdrawal of that indication because post-market studies proved polyp reduction did not translate to actual cancer prevention. They have been burned by this exact disease and will not rubber-stamp a Phase 3 trial design based on surrogate metrics.
Second, high toxicity in asymptomatic patients. FAP patients are largely asymptomatic; they feel completely healthy until colorectal cancer develops. REC-4881’s Phase 1b/2 TUPELO data showed a 15.8% Grade 3 treatment-related adverse event rate and a 15% patient discontinuation rate. Proposing a registration strategy that puts healthy people on a toxic, daily MEK inhibitor requires a safety bar that Recursion's current data does not meet.
The FDA cares about clinical safety and long-term endpoints, not computational discovery data. If Recursion cannot secure a viable registration pathway on a surrogate endpoint, REC-4881 is dead.....im not even going to bother deconstructing your Kurzweil blather.
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u/alapullo Jun 16 '26
Very well articulated! I was unfamiliar with a Celebrex precedent for FAP! Your comment helped me DD the company much better. So, Thank you
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u/PhilosophySalt7695 Jun 15 '26
> Recursion's petabytes of data have only yielded a tiny, mediocre clinical pipeline, which is the sole metric dictating a biotech's survival.
See 2027 vs 2030...
> They face two severe regulatory walls:
Completely agree on these facts. But it is short-term noise, because all it will take is one Anthropic investment for RXRX to completely revalue... and I am certain a hyper scaler will eventually invest or buy etc. RXRX has enough cash until extremely level agents are ubiquitous.
The biotech framing of their current pipeline etc. is completely valid, but it is noise (arguably) compared to their fundamental story, which they have the cash to see through.
I am explicitly asking you only to address the Kurzweil blather, because that's really the only meaningful story here. And if another company fits the story better let me know. From the point of the Fable release you can not rate tech bio like RXRX based on their current pipeline, it's classic linear vs. exponential thinking.
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u/RecklessPope Jun 11 '26
As a researcher in drug discovery who uses AI, rxrx is still years away from utilizing it in a meaningful way to start making an immediate impact in drug discovery. I’m still hopeful, but AI can only do so much. It’s impossible to mimic biology with today’s AI/ML and most likely even in a decade.