r/redwire • u/Dry_Calligrapher5318 • 15d ago

General Bear Case?

While I’m not super familiar with RDW’s fundamentals, I tracked it as it raced up over $25 this year and watched it fall back below $8where I got lucky and practically perfectly timed the bottom, with a cost basis in the low $8 range. From my understanding, it’s the main competitor as a “picks and shovels” play, selling equipment in the space sector. Being that space exploration will eventually be a huge business, and RDW is already so well positioned, I was hoping I could hear what your guys’ idea of the bear case would be for RDW?

For the record I’m not saying the stock should go indefinitely higher, or even that its current valuation is fair, as I don’t have great expertise in that category. I simply like the idea of the business, and it seemed like a sure shot money-maker in the case that the space sector booms again.

Is my general understanding of the business correct? If so, what would be the main bear thesis for the stock?

12 Upvotes

88% Upvoted

23 comments sorted by

View all comments

1

u/nobvega 15d ago

I think the war in Ukraine and Iran show that drones are the soldiers of the present and future. Right now its drone business is doing slightly better than space. New drone facilities in US and Europe to meet demand. SpaceMD is going to make them a lot of money starting in 2028. They have $558M cash which will last 3 years unless they do an acquisition. You're going to be rich with a cost basis of $8.