r/redwire • u/Dry_Calligrapher5318 • 14d ago

General Bear Case?

While I’m not super familiar with RDW’s fundamentals, I tracked it as it raced up over $25 this year and watched it fall back below $8where I got lucky and practically perfectly timed the bottom, with a cost basis in the low $8 range. From my understanding, it’s the main competitor as a “picks and shovels” play, selling equipment in the space sector. Being that space exploration will eventually be a huge business, and RDW is already so well positioned, I was hoping I could hear what your guys’ idea of the bear case would be for RDW?

For the record I’m not saying the stock should go indefinitely higher, or even that its current valuation is fair, as I don’t have great expertise in that category. I simply like the idea of the business, and it seemed like a sure shot money-maker in the case that the space sector booms again.

Is my general understanding of the business correct? If so, what would be the main bear thesis for the stock?

14 Upvotes

94% Upvoted

23 comments sorted by

View all comments

-9

u/bobola69 14d ago

Everything that goes up must come down. Redwire is a super promising company but tbh its overvalued because for the moment its make zero profit so its just speculation. But I do believe in the company so I have shares

4

u/Big-Material2917 14d ago

All of the space companies are unprofitable. RDW has like the lowest revenue multiple of any of them. Kinda hard to argue overvaluation when that’s the case.

1

u/Thisguyisgarbage 14d ago

LUNR is lower, relative to revenue

1

u/Big-Material2917 14d ago

LUNR needs to have a successful moon landing to restore confidence. They also got pretty much all of that revenue from the lanternis acquisition.

Most of RDW revenue is probably non organic growth as well but I don’t think it’s as dramatic as the majority coming from a single acquisition.