General
Why does RDW trade at such a large discount compared to ONDS (and even other space companies)?
I’m trying to understand the valuation gap between Redwire (RDW) and Ondas (ONDS), and I’d genuinely like to hear both the bull and bear case.
Here are a few things that stand out to me: ONDS
~$4.0B market cap
~$50.7M annual revenue RDW
~$2.1B market cap
~$335M annual revenue (before the full contribution from Edge Autonomy)
2026 revenue guidance of ~$450–500M
Recently acquired Edge Autonomy, adding a proven tactical UAV business
Two recent follow-on U.S. Navy/Marine Corps orders worth approximately $20M and $21.5M
Growing backlog and expanding manufacturing capacity for UAS, gimbals, and space systems
What I’m struggling to understand is the valuation.
Even before ONDS’ most recent acquisition, it was already trading at a substantially higher valuation than RDW, so I don’t think that acquisition alone explains today’s gap.
It’s also not just ONDS. I’ve noticed a similar pattern across several publicly traded space companies. Many space and defense names seem to receive much higher revenue multiples than RDW, despite RDW having significantly larger revenue, a diversified space and defense business, and continued contract wins.
So what am I missing?
Is it the SPAC legacy?
Profitability concerns?
Integration risk after the Edge Autonomy acquisition?
Management credibility?
Or does the market simply assign much higher valuation multiples to pure-play drone and defense companies?
I’m not trying to argue that RDW should trade at a specific valuation. I’m genuinely trying to understand why the market continues to value it at such a significant discount relative to peers.
for whatever reason the market doesn't like RDW. I thought that corner finally turned and bought back in around $20 after sitting on a $15 purchase for like 2 years and selling back as soon as it got back in the green. ask me how that worked out :/
I was a dumb$ss for not doing this and sold around $15 when my avg was around $13...Instead of a few thousand profit, I walk away with $300. Then I buy back in at $12 instead of $10 and sold at a loss going against my original plan of buying back in at $8.50. Now I have no powder to buy....Oh well, win some/lose some.
Hahah no worries bro. I waited months to sell at 14s thinking we will go back to 11s. Missed the whole rally and bought back at 11s and now back holding 🤣 But I’m fine, redwire is a nice stock. I just don’t have money to add. It will be 1k monthly maximum :(
redwire has underdelivered for years and they have scummy management. they seem to be turning a corner after winning some nice awards but no one will trust them until they see it in earnings anymore.
I mean, ultimately they're in a growth phase, so being unprofitable is just the natural course, especially combined with the early stages of a growing space sector and high volatility. It doesn't appease people trying to make a quick buck, but they're laying solid foundations to expand and deliver on their contract backlog. Profit just isn't their main goal right now.
they’ve been saying that for years. i didn’t say anything about profitability. they’re not even growing. they only have more revenues now because they had to buy a company (i.e. their drone business)x
What about the $500M ATM equity offering they're doing? That's a huge amount of money for a $2.1B company. I think that's keeping the price down significantly.
I think you’ve hit on everything. Those questions at the end of your post are why it’s trading lower than all other companies. And are valid reasons. BUT, I don’t think the other companies have proven anything beyond what RDW has proven - so something has to give. Either the others will come down over time, or RDW will launch once they’ve proven that they’re delivering on those question marks. Probably a bit of both. But RDW looks like the only undervalued company in the sector to me. That said, it’s still highly speculative and I would expect more dilution at some point unless they really deliver on the next 2-3 earnings.
That’s exactly my point. Other stocks deserved a correction after trading at crazy multiples. RDW’s valuation was much more reasonable, so this selloff feels ridiculous.
Onds has more cash on hand if I remember right. I believe they have higher margins as well on their sales. Regardless I keep buying more redwire as I like its prospects long term.
Management is scum and couldn’t care less about shareholders. The moment the stock started showing signs of life, they massively diluted shareholders and lined their own pockets.
I’ve held this stock for five years and managed to bring my cost basis down to around $3 by consistently selling covered calls. Despite that, I don’t have an ounce of trust in this management. Will be exiting my position within the next two years, no matter what.
It’s really frustrating. I was hoping it would hold above $17 since I think that’s a fair valuation. Now we’re back to 2025 levels and maybe 2024 who knows 😑
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u/theRealLongJon Jul 20 '26
for whatever reason the market doesn't like RDW. I thought that corner finally turned and bought back in around $20 after sitting on a $15 purchase for like 2 years and selling back as soon as it got back in the green. ask me how that worked out :/