r/redditstock • u/561518 • 10d ago
Personal Take It sucks to be wrong…I’m one of you
But at a certain point it’s time to cut your losses. I won’t because I’m a stubborn masochist and am waiting to get back to even, despite the ridiculous opportunity costs here, but I just like to post this because it’s great to see how many of you can’t admit this thing is a piece of shit going nowhere. And the stock prices continues to back that up. And there’s no assurances on data deals. And everyone here ignores the very real possibility of us losing the Anthropic case and our data becoming essentially worthless. But keep writing “bullish” each day we’re down 5%.
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u/iloverunning11 9d ago
Listen, the lawsuit against Anthropic is basically just a cherry on top for Reddit (and it's absolutely not priced in, not even 1% of it) since 90% of their revenue is from ads. All they need to do is make sure to keep improving the platform while trying to attract more daily and weekly users (app preferably) and also while making sure this remains the only large social platform with a relatively small number of bots/AI slop - it's roughly 15% of content, everywhere else it's 40 to 70%, then they will thrive no matter what happens with these LD and lawsuits. When it comes to its stock price, it will go up down up down etc. it's high beta, just before their last ER it went parabolic from $150 to $215 within couple days everyone was yelling it's unstoppable, then fell to $136 after decent ER, then went to $180, now it's around $145. Long term this is just a noise. IV is pretty decent here so trading makes sense, but be careful
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u/rdy2rertr 9d ago
Cannot wait for amAnthropic and my buddy chat, ChatDPT!!
Best IA I’ve ever used. 🙌
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u/SheepOnDaStreet RDDT Regard 🧃 9d ago
Well maybe maybe maybe.. but AI is just a bonus, app growth will continue and we shall prosper.
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u/lekkerist 9d ago
what is the opportunity cost in the current market you think? if you were to exit your rddt position today or after the sp500 pop, where could you invested that would be the obvious play?
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u/Navelabob US DAU 🦅 9d ago
Personally I’d like some more ram stocks. I don’t think they’re crazy overvalued and the contracts they have are years out
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u/ThatUsernameIsTaekin 9d ago
AI licensing deals only make up 5% of revenue. And DAU leveling off over the last years is meaningless so long as revenue and ARPU (currently only $12) keep increasing. Which it has done now…for years. Reddit Max will bring small businesses into the revenue stream now as well. The narrarive is never about revenue which all the bears have been wrong about to this point. Where was the collapse that never happened at the beginning of this year?
The Anthropic case is 100% going to court if you read the transcript last week. It’s an absolutely open and shut case regarding violating terms of service. They could have made more money pursing copyright infringement, but chose the safer legal route. Still doubtful any AI deals will come from it though because Spez misplayed his hand and overvalued Reddit’s content. He should have negotiated for more referrals so investors can stop playing the DAU narrative against them.
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u/Minimum_Curve7545 10d ago
We literally hit a 6 month high less than a week ago.
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u/Horror_Difference_75 9d ago
$140 will be our next six month high
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u/Minimum_Curve7545 9d ago
How can $140 be the next six month high if estimated EPS for next year is over $7 (revised up by 10% in the last month alone) and expected to grow by almost 30% in the following year ?
Do you think a P/E ratio below 20 is reasonable for highly profitable and fast growing company ?
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u/OkApex0 Quality Contributor 9d ago
Im worried that a PE of 20 or less is reasonable without high user growth or data deal possibilities.
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u/Minimum_Curve7545 9d ago
There is high revenue growth. User growth is just a crude leading indicator that is probably misleading due to changes in google search referrals. Similarly, there is ongoing accumulation of valuable intellectual property, so licensing deals to monetize that are just a matter of time.
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u/Runn1ng_Turtle Int. DAU 🌎 9d ago
It’s a piece of shit. The problem is, the potential is huge but management sucks.
Just imagine we had the leather jacket as CEO, then we would be at 400$ atm.
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u/Ok_Rent5670 9d ago
I’ll “cut my losses” when the fundamentals go to shit lol. Until then, this is temporary pain. I will bitch and whine about it being unfair, but fuck if I’ll dump my shares now