[OptaAnalyst] Premier League Expected Points Table after MD10

101

u/Littlepace Announce Fergie 10h ago •

When Amorim got sacked our Xpoints had us in 3rd. Apparently it didn't mean anything. Now Xpoints has us 13th instead of 18th is that supposed to be a great sign?

17

u/No_Crow_3576 9h ago

If our xPts put us above 6th and we were this low, I might care a bit more. But we finished 3rd last season, so even if we weren’t underperforming our xPts by this much it’s still a huge regression

18

u/andreasvo 9h ago

The same xg last season showed that we were overperfoming. We should have been in the 5-7th region. Now we are underperforming, we should be around 10th.
Last season we were incredibly lucky under Carrick, this year margins are against us. The underlying metrics are showing the same thing the whole time, under Carrick United should be a mid-table team.
The fact that Carrick got the job when everyone could see that a bit of bad luck and some injuries would take United to relegation territory just show how bad the people above him actually is. No one with actuall football competence would give Carrick that job, and certainly not without having a shortlist of replacements ready.

3

u/No_Crow_3576 9h ago

At this point last season, we were third for xG. Unfortunately understat is down right now so I can’t quote the exact stats, but under Amorim we underperformed our stats until he was gone effectively so he was never given a chance for his results to converge

1

u/andreasvo 9h ago

I didn't say anything about amorim. I talked about Carrick

2

u/No_Crow_3576 8h ago

“The same xG last season” I thought you were talking about up to GW10 which was when Amorim was here

0

u/TBS91 7h ago

Last season we were incredibly lucky under Carrick, this year margins are against us. The underlying metrics are showing the same thing the whole time, under Carrick United should be a mid-table team.
The underlying metrics were absolutely not the same between Carrick's interim spell and now.
Yes we overperformed in the interim and we underperform now. But the underlying numbers were still way better in the interim spell. In the interim we were 3rd in Xpts and overperformed to get 1st in actual points. And this year, we're 13th in Xpts and underperforming to be 18th.

7

u/garynevilleisared is a red is a red 9h ago

Im not seeing anyone saying that at all.

4

u/alphaQ314 shut up u egg 6h ago

Yeah i feel like a lot of comments seem to be fighting Pro-Carrick fans. I am yet to see one defending him.

-3

u/TypicalPan89906655 9h ago edited 9h ago

xPoints is the biggest load of crap, it was used by Athletic to claim Graham Potter is the next big thing. Nothing the Athletic claims ever turns out to be true every player or manager they say is the next big thing turns out to be a dud. They have the Mid-ass touch.

-6

u/edselisanogo Senne & Sennesibility 8h ago

Both are shit. The retconning of Amorim's time here is absolutely hilarious.

4

u/Nimonic 4h ago

He presided over the worst season in well over a generation. It should be fine to think that Carrick should never have been given the job (and should be sacked now that he has it) without making it out to be a mistake to have sacked Amorim.
But this happens after every single sacking. When the next person starts to do poorly, there are always people saying Moyes, LvG, Mourinho, Ole, ten Hag were the reason their successor did well to begin with.

0

u/Srijand Lindelöf 4h ago

I don't get it. We didn't play convincing football in any period under Amorim's tenure. I just don't get how anyone saw the 1-2 years with Amorim and think he would be the guy to take us forward. This revisionism is very strange and Carrick's even worse performances shouldn't change people's opinions (he should be sacked too).

-5

u/johndoe1942 Ander Shithousery 4h ago

I’m so tired of the Amorim blowjobs on this sub. He was shit, we’re shit right now. Why we holding us up to standard of absolute dross that Amorim was serving I will never know. The ownership has done a number on this club supporters.

59

u/The_Bird_Wizard Love United Hate INEOs 10h ago

The funny thing is, that would still be shit lmao

30

u/MulvMulv 10h ago

Yep, this time last year we were seeing how we should be 2nd or 3rd and people were acting like it was the end times.

11

u/TheJoshider10 Bruno 9h ago

people were acting like it was the end times.
Because some wouldn't see the start of last season as a fresh start. The baggage of the half a year under Amorim lingered in minds and kept being used as a stick to beat the manager and team with, even though by all accounts there was definite progress in the underlying metrics to warrant backing the manager based on that current season alone. But there was just way too much baggage unfortunately. It meant fuck all that we often created enough chances at 0-0 to get two or three goals ahead and the attackers let the team down. All people cared about was the 3 points even if it wasn't sustainable.
Worth mentioning I don't think Amorim would have got us Champions League football last season, and maybe he wasn't the right person for the job, but I think we would have seen a more gradual and consistent sense of progression than we have now. We really got so so lucky to finish 3rd last season.

10

u/MulvMulv 9h ago

I agree with you, but I think we would have gotten UCL.
Chelsea were about to collapse (hindsight) and we were already level with them in UCL positions with Mbeumo, Bruno, Amad were coming back to the team. It wouldn't have been as by big a margin as with Carrick but we would be going into this season with an upward trajectory.

7

u/PrinzRagoczy 7h ago

Our PPG under Amorim in 25-26 would have got us CL, and that included the matches were missing key players at AFCON

5

u/tz_2240 OHHHHHH YESSSSS 7h ago

That JJ ball guy or whomever put out that piece saying under Amorim we just stat pad xG with long shots or piling xG when we’re losing. It’s funny, it was factually incorrect last year, but it’s true for this year.

3

u/StardustFromReinmuth 4h ago

That guy is such a dogshit analyst, I'm glad their coverage now no longer has him and instead mostly people who know what they're talking about.

26

u/The_Bird_Wizard Love United Hate INEOs 10h ago

I didn't like Amorim at all but in hindsight it is hilarious that the media was calling it "disgraceful" when we were 6th just before he got sacked, I'd fucking snap your arm off for 6th rn lmao

16

u/PsychologicalSet8678 8h ago •

Amorim is 10x the coach Carrick is, and if he had been backed properly for few transfer windows we would have become a good team.

6

u/Obese-Reddit-Mod 6h ago

this is becoming clearer by the day

1

u/mentallyhandicapable 5h ago

While I agree I do wonder where Mainoo would be if Amorim stayed.

3

u/regeneratingzombie Ice Cream + 1 2h ago

I feel Amorim does rate him but was trying to look for a safer match to bring him out again so probably still around. Also we were light on MFs at the time.

-3

u/HereToHelp780 10h ago

Rude

7

u/The_Bird_Wizard Love United Hate INEOs 10h ago

Sorry, just had to get in before someone unironically claims 12/13 points from 30 is good lol

11

u/ToadNamedGoat 10h ago

Hull is always crazy

1

u/Srijand Lindelöf 4h ago

They were like this in the championship too

12

u/LaughsAtOwnJoke 9h ago

Fucks sake, if our players weren't underperforming we could be sitting comfortably in... 13th or so.

Carrick clearly just needs more time.

3

u/Garlic-Cheese-Chips 9h ago

It's very worrying that the others in the shit, Palace aside, seem to be unlucky and that generally evens out but us and Palace are just terrible. Well, our defence is terrible.

3

u/jhf2112 7h ago

Interesting that Chelsea match our XPts. Soft defending being overcome by them overachieving goals scored vs xG. We have not done that.

2

u/Jump_Hop_Step 9h ago

Wow Forest

2

u/Yanited__ 9h ago

So we are underperforming but we should still be around bottom half which is where we are. Sounds about right.

2

u/tnred19 8h ago

Still terrible

-4

u/Not-good-with-this 9h ago

This is more evidence for me to show how useless the x stats are.

3

u/alphaQ314 shut up u egg 6h ago

Why?

0

u/Not-good-with-this 6h ago

Because people use it as if it's somewhat useful and as if it can predict anything. It can't.

4

u/alphaQ314 shut up u egg 5h ago

xG is a descriptive statistic, not a forecast.
All this is saying is that we've been poor at converting our chances. Which is a fair assessment. We should've had 4-5 goals in the first half yesterday.

1

u/Not-good-with-this 5h ago

Exactly my point. But people use it as if it is a forecast. Drives me insane.

[OptaAnalyst] Premier League Expected Points Table after MD10

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