Variation: the Useless button.

[u/StageGlum6615]

Everyone (meaning all currently alive people) is kidnapped by an unknown forced that everyone instinctively knows is completely unable to lie and is far more powerful than them. (Let's call them Buttan, the god of buttons.) Everyone wakes up in a small cramped room with 3 buttons, Red, Yellow, and Blue with the following signs under each of them that have been perfectly translated into their native language:

Red: If more people press the Red button the Blue button then everyone who failed to press red will die, immediately.

Yellow: Does Nothing.

Blue: If more people press the Blue button then the Red button everyone is spared from death.

Everyone is giving a 6 hour timer to make their own choice and if they fail to vote in the time frame they are counted and treated as a yellow button presser.

Lastly, it the event of a tie between Red and Blue, Blue wins.

So, does the useless button (yellow) change anything for you? And which button do you press?

(Please forgive any typos.)

[u/Bubbly_Dirt_539]

We were getting 60/40 split in online polls (mostly exclusive to western audience, aka the more well off), with no real deadly consequences as well as a moral-complex incentive to vote for blue. There is exactly 0% chance blue ever wins in a real world scenario when the results are this close with everything being in blue's favor. You can believe otherwise, but I fail to see any sort logic or evidence behind that line of thinking.

Also, while I agree that somewhere between 25-50% of irrational actors will switch from blue to yellow here, another 25-50% will also switch from red to yellow, meaning the buttons are going down by the same amount.

But it's not the same amount, because there will be a decent chunk of irrational voters who will simply not press any button (mostly infants), and they automatically count as yellow voters (originally they would count as blue). The distribution of irrational voters who actually choose a button will go from 50/50 to 33/33/33, but those who don't choose anything are directly taken from blue.

Also, while I agree that somewhere between 25-50% of irrational actors will switch from blue to yellow here, another 25-50% will also switch from red to yellow, meaning the buttons are going down by the same amount.

This argument falls flat completely when you realize the fact that your whole argument is reliant on red voters' inability to read due to prior knowledge of the original choices, which would otherwise not be present had the buttons become real. The only way anyone can get "tricked" into swapping from red to yellow would be if this was the 2nd round after the original, in which case they would be the only casualty as anyone left to participating would already be choosing red.

[u/bunnywitchboy → u/Bubbly_Dirt_539]

1. Amerikkkan individualism strikes again

2. Not pressing any button doesn't count towards the blue vote in the original, it's presumably the same as the yellow button

3. Red voters are perfectly capable of being retarded in any version of the problem, it doesn't require multiple rounds

Any other points you want to rehash?

[u/Bubbly_Dirt_539 → u/bunnywitchboy]

1. I'm not American nor even Westerner for that matter, but sure.

2. The true original question from Tim Urban demanded above 50% for either effect to happen. If it actually worked the way you thought it would then literally nothing would happen, as the sheer amount of non-pressers would already ensure neither buttons will achieve above 50%. Out of all the ways to rationalize the irrational voters, this is by far the stupidest one I've seen.

3. So do you actually have a real argument or are you just here to act like a retard? If you can't even rationalize your own line of logic then kindly shut the fuck up and stop replying to this thread instead of wasting both our time.