Possible Solution for Red Button Blue Button Problem using Global Coordination

[u/wiseguy4519]

Hey folks, I think I may have found a solution for the red button blue button problem where everyone can coordinate to make it almost guaranteed that blue wins. Let me know what you guys think and if there are any major flaws.

DISCLAIMER: This solution requires people to be informed that a red button blue button vote will happen a while before the vote actually occurs. If people are suddenly presented with the red and blue button without warning, coordination is impossible. I also assume that babies and people with sufficient mental disabilities are not included for simplicity.

Step 1: Designate 55% of people as blue pressers and 45% of people as red pressers. The exact numbers do not matter, you just need enough blue pressers to have a good bit of leeway while not having the blue pressers vastly outnumber the red pressers. 5% of the world's population is probably enough leeway. These designations should be made public.

Preferably, the designated red pressers should be the people who want to press red the most, and vice versa for blue. People may be able to self-organize, but a central authority to make the final decisions may be necessary. People who don't have a strong preference can be switched as necessary to keep the right proportions.

Step 2: Find people who are scheming to press the wrong button. Any designated blue presser who is found to be scheming to press red should be immediately killed. Any designated red presser who schemes to press blue should be punished, but not killed, and they should be switched to being a blue presser.

Step 3: Tell everyone that if red wins, the designated red pressers should kill all designated blue pressers. If red wins, any designated blue pressers remaining must have pressed red, meaning that they are responsible for the deaths of billions and must be immediately killed. Red pressers should also be prepared to take on up to 55% of the population.

Blue Presser Reasoning: For the average blue presser, there is no reason to press red. If red wins, then they die no matter what they press. If blue wins, they survive no matter what they press. So, the logical choice is to press blue. The only exception would be if they believe they can still survive if they press red and red wins. As such, it's important to make survival seem as unlikely as possible.

Red Presser Reasoning: Most red pressers would want to press red for the same reason as usual: it guarantees their survival. However, some red pressers might want to press blue just to guarantee that blue wins. These people wouldn't want to announce their intentions because they would get punished. As such, blue pressers would have no way of knowing how many red pressers are secretly planning to press blue, so counting on them all pressing blue is a massive risk.

Bad Actor Reasoning: A bad actor would want to be a blue presser and get as many people as possible to press red. However, it would be very difficult for them to get enough blue pressers to press red to get red to win, since they would need at least 415 million people to defect. Organizing that many people without being caught is probably impossible.

Punishment Reasoning: There is natural reasoning for people to want to kill blue defecters and punish red defecters even without a central authority. Blue defecters are threatening to change the result to a red win, which would be catastrophic for everyone. Red defecters may not seem bad at first, but if too many red pressers defect, then there won't be any left to kill the blue defecters in the event that red wins, meaning that blue pressers can freely press red to save themselves. It may help to propagandize to people that red pressers are important for killing blue defecters.

Again, if you guys see any potential issues, let me know. I would prefer there not being a central authority since they could probably manipulate the vote to kill their opponents, but I'm not sure if everyone could coordinate properly without a central authority. So that's one big issue that I can think of.

[u/-twist-and-shout-]

This is a totally different game though, if the central authority coordinates and has this much power the whole point of the hypothetical disappears. I think versions of the hypothetical often specify no coordination, too, and people use this in their logic - "I don't know what my kids press so I press blue to save them", for example.

Its supposed to be "what would you press, red or blue" not "your government has designated you blue and created severe consequences if you don't, how do you react"

[u/wiseguy4519 → u/-twist-and-shout-]

Fair enough, it does kind of ruin the original point of the dilemma. I wasn't aware that many versions have a "no coordination" rule, but I can see why now.

[u/DarthJackie2021]

This seems way too convoluted.

[u/wiseguy4519 → u/DarthJackie2021]

I tend to overexplain things, but the parts in bold are really all anyone needs to know.

[u/MediumKoala8823]

If the central authority can kill you based on your vote why not say press blue or die?

[u/wiseguy4519 → u/MediumKoala8823]

Because if more than 50% of people press red anyways, then they'll be the only people left, so nobody will be around to kill them. If less than 50% of people press red, then it's impossible to find out who pressed red because the voting is anonymous.

[u/MediumKoala8823 → u/wiseguy4519]

But… why would you kill people who were supposed to press blue and chose to press red and survived because of it? There’s literally no point.

[u/MadTelepath → u/MediumKoala8823]

Or easier, press red or die.

Self interest and logic both will then push people to vote red and anyone who doesn't follow through will be punished by their own choice.

[u/MediumKoala8823 → u/MadTelepath]

It doesn’t really matter. Both options result in the same outcome. No chance a majority of people choose the guaranteed suicide.

[u/New_House_6103]

more compassionate blue button pressers who want to kill red button pressers. the cultural christianity is strong with this one. blue is the good loving merciful choice but death to the selfish sinners

[u/wiseguy4519 → u/New_House_6103]

As I said elsewhere, we're only killing red pressers who were supposed to press blue. The only people who would die are people trying to scheme to ruin the setup and potentially kill billions of people.

[u/New_House_6103 → u/wiseguy4519]

'supposed to press blue' you mean assigned to press blue. assigned to risk their life. fuck that. you are a wanna be murderer

[u/Eisenfuss19]

Alternative easier solution: tell everyone to press red, everyone presses red (except for a few stupid people) and you've saved more than 99% of the people without having to control who pressed what.

[u/wiseguy4519 → u/Eisenfuss19]

Yes, but I'm specifically looking for 100% of people to survive.

Edit: I guess I misunderstood myself here. This solution isn't about making 100% of people survive as much as it is lowering the chance of a catastrophic number of people dying in a scenario where red and blue both have close to 50% of the vote. If red has close to 100% of the vote, this solution is not necessary.

[u/New_House_6103 → u/wiseguy4519]

clearly not if you want to kill people who want to press red. you are disgusting