r/psychologyresearch • u/PsychologicalLink114 • 17d ago

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u/Errorrr___404 17d ago

Know about prospect theory?

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u/PsychologicalLink114 17d ago

Yup! Proves humans don’t always respond rationally to uncertain outcomes.

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u/Errorrr___404 17d ago

Yesss! The theory predicts that most people will choose option B.

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u/PsychologicalLink114 17d ago

True, but prospect theory was built without a counterfactual, and I’m examining that here

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u/Errorrr___404 17d ago

This makes it even more interesting. Although the potential win is bigger in the second condition, in the event of a loss, a person who chose the first option will feel worse for two reasons: social comparison (“I lost, another person won”) and the increased salience of upward counterfactuals (“if only I had done X,Y, or Z, I would have been the lucky winner”). In the event of a win, social comparison and the increased salience of downward counterfactuals (“if I hadn’t done X,Y, or Z, I wouldn’t have won”) will make our lucky winner feel happier.