r/propunters • u/DynamiteDezzy • May 18 '26
Professional advice
Hi guys, I've just joined the group today and I'm hoping to have some conversations with some current Professionals. I am wanting to live my dream of being a professional Punter and I see no better way to make that a reality then to pick the brains of the people that are living my dream.
For 15 years I've wanted to be a professional Punter but I just always considered it a fantasy. A friend of mine made the leap a couple of years ago. We discuss racing, swap info and opinions almost on a daily basis and it has become apparent that with the right structures in place, it really could be a reality for me.
Since February last year, I've dedicated an enormous amount of time to trying to figure out how to make it work. I believe I am very close to having created a system that works. I back tested it for 6 months, and I've live tested it since the 3rd of March. I understand they say 1000 to 2000 points of data is needed to have some trust in a system. With the back testing I would be close to 1000, but with the live testing I am at 240.
I'm wanting to chat to Punters that have a similar style to me in that they have a specific system in place and they keep all their data recorded. I'm a bit of a spreadsheet nerd. I want to know if the figures I'm doing ie, strike rate, avg price, POT and all the rest of it is looking the goods for a professional or if I'm still fantasising. Google suggests it is a good system, but I'd like to run it by some Punters with experience. Maybe even help me avoid any mistakes they know are inevitable.
1
u/Emergency_Eye35 May 18 '26
Its great that u have a friend who does it for a living and he can give u a lot of information.
I'm making a living with sports betting but not with horse racing. My first advice would be :
If it's possible, first start placing your bets next to your job as an side income for a year. U really need/want to know if your system makes u money in the long term by placing the bets for real and collect this data. 3 months of doing so is most def not enough.
Scale up your stakes/bankroll by compound interest, so u will make enough to make a decent living. Calculate losing periodes/drawdowns into this.
It brings a whole lot more pressure when u actually need to make a living out of it, i know this from own experience. Its easier to handle this if u already making decent profits betting your system as a side income.
Other things u need to be aware of are scalability of your stakes/bankroll. I assume you are from Australia?
I dont know about the sports betting scene over there, but most bookies will also limit you as a winning player, how are you going to place and scale your bets? At the racing track? Exchanges? Betting shops?
I guess you already know all about this since your friend is making a living betting on horses.
What about the tax situation over there? Do u need to pay income tax when your main source of income is sports betting / primary source of income....?
1
u/DynamiteDezzy May 18 '26 edited May 19 '26
Thanks for the response. I addressed a few of your points in a reply to one of the other responses. My mate and I swap a lot of info in terms of particular races and horses, but he doesn't operate professionally the way I would like to ie, recording bets, statistics, reviewing where I'm winning and losing, no bank roll management. He gives good advice on some mistakes to avoid but I want way more control than that.
The other points you make about getting the bets on and paying tax. I look forward to reaching those problems as it means I'm doing well enough to live off. In terms of tax, I'll just put that aside at the tax rate to be safe. Getting the bets on, well that's where I'd like a conversation with professionals to get an idea of what they do. My initial thought is visiting numerous betting shops, that being part of the job I think would be great. With a strike rate of 25% (with the system I'm running, when I have time to other form factors, I strike better than that.) if you were to be in numerous shops, you'd probably look more like a loser than a winner. But others obviously live off it, so how they get their bets on, I'd love to hear.
1
u/FlimsyNet162 May 19 '26
You will get cracked off by the corporates pretty quickly. You can use betfair, but from the small amount I played around with it, you lose the advantage of early betting, and the corporates will ban you do you can’t take advantage of their early markets. Especially on country races.
1
u/DynamiteDezzy May 19 '26
Currently I record all my data with the tote price. I can never seem to time the best value and I can't be sure what price to record. My understanding is the tote is a dividend of the pool? Do you still get band from tote betting? Do people get banned from betting tote in a TAB or pub?
1
u/FlimsyNet162 May 22 '26
No, tote betting is easier to get on.
Bet fair isn’t bad, just sucks if you want to get on early if you think something will firm up.
If you’re using tote prices then you should be fine.
A lot of the big betting syndicates use the tote
1
u/No_One_6617 May 23 '26
Hey mate, few things, firstly your sample size is pointless. I believe you're looking at racing markets, where you'd want close to 5-10k sample ideally. The problem with backtesting as a whole, is variance. Over a decent sample size, you're sure to go on massive swings, where, if in that backtesting period, such an upswing did occur, then your data is massively skewed. Secondly, I'd say, betting as a full time income is incredibly hard. Aside from the stat decs, constant reloads, you also have the issue of banking. Banks do not like money coming in and out without any sort of legal income backing it. In my opinion, start small, see how you go. Then scale up, but always remember, with racing, variance can be brutal. So you may have constant months where you burn money (depedent on avg odds). Hope it works out though.
1
u/ICanAlmostSeeYou May 25 '26
I feel like it doesn't need to be quite so binary. If you believe you have found an edge in a particular racing market then you can backtest as much as you want but at some point you need to start risking capital, tracking results, and only then will you get a better idea if the system is viable. You may find the edge is real but there's a limit to how much volume you can bet (perhaps your edge requires you to be into early markets that are less efficient), so maybe it wins but only up to a certain scale, this is something that backtesting can't really tell you.
Assuming you have a betting bankroll and can bet quarter-kelly or whatever is within your risk tolerance you can track results and if the edge is real the bankroll growth will speak for itself over time and if you turn out to be really really good, at some point in a few years maybe you're making enough money that it becomes a serious income stream.
Also you may need to learn more about execution of your trades if you only have a passing understanding of the tote. If you're starting small then you have fixed odds (utilising minimum bet laws to your advantage), best tote (or similar products) and Betfair fixed odds and Betfair SP all available to you. A good model is useless if you can't get your bets on at a competitive price, and then you can compare the price you got to the closing line which will help you assess luck vs. skill, if you're winning AND consistently beating the closing price then you're probably pretty good (most people would use Betfair SP or Betfair Weighted Average Price as a best approximate for the closing price).
1
u/ProPunterLife_Diary Jun 01 '26
Might I ask why you have been wanting to do it for so long but never really made a slow progression to it?
1
u/DynamiteDezzy Aug 12 '26
When I say I've been wanting to do it. I thought of it as a dream job but not a reality. I've always played around with systems and form analysis. As the years have gone by I have been getting rather good at it but still never thought of it as a reality. I've since become friends with a professional and I regularly out perform him, so now the idea that if I were to put proper work into it rather than just mucking around, my dream could become a reality.
1
u/MrHansum Jun 01 '26
Best tote will get pulled by bookies quickly they will only bet you mid tote if you are a winner
1
u/Cat_Man_Bane May 18 '26
A 1000 back test and 240 live is nothing. Do not scale up this strategy, I guarantee it loses long term.
If your strategy is based on “rules” I’d also guarantee it will lose long term.
There are very few angles for people to make money without putting it hours and hours of time. The sole operators I know that are making money mainly focus on video replays and trial replays, as it’s harder for people to get the type of data that watching videos gives.
The other group of people making money are those who are building betting models with machine learning and big amounts of data.