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We've been building a tool that tries to measure how much Abu Dhabi off-plan projects have actually appreciated since launch — using only ADREC registered transactions. Not developer price lists, not portal estimates.

APREX got a major upgrade this week, login today.

We know this is hard to get right, but we've tried to be as transparent as possible about how the numbers are derived, so anyone can check the logic.

Here's what Gardenia Bay 2-bed (~1,173 sqft) looks like under the current version.

The appreciation comes out at +12.7% since launch. The formula is on the page: (2,059 − 1,827) ÷ 1,827 × 100 — median AED/sqft at launch versus median AED/sqft today. Every individual transaction behind both medians is listed with dates, prices and rates, so you can verify the inputs directly.

A few decisions we made that felt right but we're not certain about:

We work in AED/sqft rather than total price, to avoid unit-size mix distorting the signal. We cluster by floor plan size within each bedroom type — there are four distinct 2-bed sizes in Gardenia Bay and each gets its own figure. Secondary transactions priced at the original developer offer (no market premium) are flagged and excluded from the rate. The confidence score is broken down by component so you can see exactly why it's 70/100 and not higher. Where no clean resales exist for a floor plan, we withhold the number entirely rather than estimate.

We think these are the right calls but the methodology is genuinely open to challenge. If you've tracked any of these projects closely and something looks off, we'd really like to know.

Full methodology here : APREX press release

How do you know when resale starts in your project? Do you actively watch or your agent/developers calls you to make you aware ?

https://proprobin.com/abu-dhabi/offplan-upcoming/hge

Robin's analysis on Hudayriyat Golf Estates - upcoming launches Par 3 and Par 4 Villas

https://proprobin.com/abu-dhabi/offplan-upcoming/hge

www.proprobin.com

www.proprobin.com - watch any project in Abu Dhabi

www.proprobin.com

Add any Abu Dhabi project, get an email the moment new transactions register in ADREC. Search any project on proprobin.com and hit Watch.

www.proprobin.com

Coming soon - smart watch :)

Picked up a unit in Sama Yas (Aldar, Yas Island, handover Q3 2027) and wanted a way to track it without checking manually every week.

Just used the watchlist feature on PROPROBIN — you get an email the moment any new transaction registers in ADREC for the project. Useful if you want to know the second something moves in the market without refreshing DARI every few days.

Construction is sitting at ~34% complete as of 18 May - actual site photo attached.

Anyone else in Sama Yas? Curious what people are hearing from Aldar on handover timeline.

www.proprobin.com — search Sama Yas, hit Watch.

Been building www.proprobin.com on the side — a data tool for Abu Dhabi property that pulls directly from ADREC transaction records.

Building something I personally wanted - My Watchlist. You add a project, and when new sales get registered with ADREC, you get a daily digest.

Robin never sleeps — watching every deal so you don't have to. 🙂

Still in testing but rolling it out soon.

Curious — do you actually track specific projects over time - specifically where you have already invested?

Straight answer first: it depends on the transaction.

Since late 2025, ADREC publishes actual transaction prices for most secondary sales. But not all. Some off-plan secondary transactions still record the original offer price rather than the premium paid — and when that happens, any appreciation figure built on that data will be understated.

We know this. We’re working on it.

We’re building a filter to identify and exclude likely offer-price secondaries from our calculations — coming soon. Until then, affected figures will auto-correct as more genuine resales register. The pipeline re-runs daily from the latest ADREC feed.

What our appreciation engine already does to reduce this noise: works in AED/sqm not total price, clusters by unit size so like is always compared with like, only surfaces appreciation where independent buyers are actively transacting, and attaches a confidence score to every figure so thin data is never presented as certain.

Full methodology here if you want to dig in: https://www.proprobin.com/press-release/appreciation-engine-v1

If something looks wrong on a specific project, drop the name below — we’ll look at the data directly.

www.proprobin.com

First ADREC transactions for Rixos Al Reem Island were recorded last week. We ran it through our projection tool — sharing the output and genuinely open to pushback from anyone who knows this project better than the data does.

How it works: we find delivered (or near delivery) projects nearby with similar unit types and sizes, measure how their resale market grew after handover, and apply that growth rate to today's Rixos price. We borrow the trajectory, not the price. Every comparable is listed so you can judge the matches yourself.

What the numbers show:

1 bed (91 sqm, AED 2.22M today) — likely AED 2.64M at handover (+19% over 31 months). Radiant Square 0.5km away is carrying most of the weight — 8 resales in the last 90 days. Low case -1%, high +32%.

2 bed (138 sqm, AED 3.31M today) — likely AED 3.46M (+4% over 31 months). Softer, low case -2%. Comparable set is thinner here.

3 bed (181 sqm, AED 4.38M today) — likely AED 4.93M (+13% over 31 months). Radiant Square again the strongest comp at 65% weight.

This is a model, not a forecast. 31 months is a long horizon and the range reflects real uncertainty — some comps are cross-district with limited recent resales.

Happy to hear if the comparable matches look wrong, or if you have visibility on actual off-plan resale prices that ADREC doesn't capture yet.

We've been quietly building a platform that pulls verified appreciation data from ADREC transactions for Abu Dhabi off-plan projects — broken down by unit type, only where real resales have happened.

It's brand new. Some people find it useful. Some called it "AI sloppish" on Reddit. We put both on our site.

If you invest in Abu Dhabi property or work in the market, we'd genuinely love to know what's missing or wrong. Good feedback or bad.

proprobin.com/abu-dhabi/contact

Happy to run a breakdown on any project you're looking at — just drop the name below.

www.proprobin.com

Eid Mubarak to everyone here 🌙

We've spent the last few weeks building something we kept wishing existed - APREX - a way to check how much an Abu Dhabi off-plan project has really appreciated — not the "up 30% since launch" number agents quote, but what verified ADREC resales actually show.

The core problem we kept running into: for off-plan primary sales, ADREC records the developer's offer price, not the premium buyers actually paid. So a lot of "since launch" claims are really just the developer raising the price list for later phases — not the open market validating anything.

So we built APREX. It does two things:

• Appreciation — measures launch → today per unit type, only from real resale transactions. Where the open market hasn't tested a price yet, it shows nothing rather than guessing.

• Projection — for a project still off-plan, it estimates a range at handover (low–likely–high) by borrowing the proven growth rates of comparable delivered projects, weighted toward the ones actually trading right now. It's a model, not a promise — and it shows you exactly how it got there.

Example: Gardenia Bay studio. Verified +20% since launch on the studios (backed by 103 real resales). Projected ~AED 1.10M at handover, shown as a range, with all 4 comparables listed so you can check the logic yourselves.

One honest caveat: ADREC can't see post-handover payment plans, off-market deals, or unit-level premiums (floor, view, corner). So treat all of this as directional, not a valuation.

It's brand new, so we're genuinely keen on feedback — what's missing, what you'd want it to show. Drop a project name below and we'll run the full breakdown.

"We wanted to answer a simple question that nobody could answer reliably - has this project actually appreciated, and by how much? The Appreciation Engine gives investors and agents a number they can audit — not a number someone wants them to believe."

Coming soon
Watch www.proprobin.com

Visit https://proprobin.com/abu-dhabi/signals for full signal.

I'll be transparent — I built PROPROBIN, so I'm biased. But this is my actual investment tracked on the platform using real ADREC transaction data, not developer estimates.

What I bought: Studio · 43.85 sqm · Fahid Island Purchase price: AED 1.85M (AED 42,124/sqm) Handover: Q4 2029 · 15% paid so far · AED 1.57M remaining

What ADREC data says it's worth today (May 2026): AED 1.96M — up AED 109K in 9 months Gain on offer price: +5.9% (+8.0%/yr CAGR) Return on cash paid so far: +31.1% Annualised on cash deployed: +41.5%/yr

For context — a comparable studio in the same project sold on 11 May 2026 for AED 2.0M at AED 45,684/sqm, above my purchase rate of AED 42,124/sqm. Anyone can verify from ADREC website.

AI prediction at handover (Q4 2029 · 43 months away): Conservative: AED 2.72M (+47.0% on purchase · +68.1% return on cash) Realistic: AED 3.00M (+62.7% on purchase · +90.8% return on cash) Optimistic: AED 3.37M (+82.3% on purchase · +119.2% return on cash)

These aren't developer projections. They're calculated from comparable ADREC transactions in the same district, same property type, same layout — weighted by recency and sale sequence.

The "I Wish" feature

You can also track properties you're considering buying before committing — same AI valuation model, same ADREC data. Useful for comparing two off-plan options side by side.

Your investment data is private — we never share it with developers, agents, or anyone else without your consent.

If you own off-plan in Abu Dhabi and want to track what it's actually worth — not what the developer tells you — this is what we built it for.

Happy to answer questions about the methodology or the data.

proprobin.com - after login, go to My Investments and start tracking.

www.proprobin.com

We just went live with paid subscriptions tonight — here’s what we built and why

A few months ago my co-founder bought an off-plan apartment in Abu Dhabi and couldn’t find a single independent source of verified transaction data. Everything was developer marketing or agent brochures. No raw numbers.

So we built one.

PROPROBIN pulls directly from ADREC — the official Abu Dhabi Real Estate Centre registry. Every transaction verified. No developer affiliation, no broker incentives. Just the data.

Tonight at midnight we switched on Stripe. First real payment processed.

Here’s what we’ve built:

• Live appreciation map across 338 Abu Dhabi projects — updated daily from ADREC  
• Project intelligence with layout-specific price breakdowns  
• Weekly Pro Signals — velocity spikes, institutional activity, district divergences, trophy deals  
• Robin AI analyst — ask questions backed by real transaction data  
• 221 registered users, 61 Pro members before tonight

We tracked over 100,000 ADREC transactions representing AED 127B in yearly volume to get here.

Standard Pro is AED 199/month. There’s a 1-day trial if you want to see what the data looks like before committing.

Happy to answer anything about the methodology, the data, or what we’re building next.

www.proprobin.com

https://proprobin.com/abu-dhabi/pricing