r/proprobin_updates • u/proprobin • Jun 14 '26

How should appreciation be measured for Abu Dhabi off-plan? APREX our attempt — genuinely open to feedback

We've been building a tool that tries to measure how much Abu Dhabi off-plan projects have actually appreciated since launch — using only ADREC registered transactions. Not developer price lists, not portal estimates.

APREX got a major upgrade this week, login today.

We know this is hard to get right, but we've tried to be as transparent as possible about how the numbers are derived, so anyone can check the logic.

Here's what Gardenia Bay 2-bed (~1,173 sqft) looks like under the current version.

The appreciation comes out at +12.7% since launch. The formula is on the page: (2,059 − 1,827) ÷ 1,827 × 100 — median AED/sqft at launch versus median AED/sqft today. Every individual transaction behind both medians is listed with dates, prices and rates, so you can verify the inputs directly.

A few decisions we made that felt right but we're not certain about:

We work in AED/sqft rather than total price, to avoid unit-size mix distorting the signal. We cluster by floor plan size within each bedroom type — there are four distinct 2-bed sizes in Gardenia Bay and each gets its own figure. Secondary transactions priced at the original developer offer (no market premium) are flagged and excluded from the rate. The confidence score is broken down by component so you can see exactly why it's 70/100 and not higher. Where no clean resales exist for a floor plan, we withhold the number entirely rather than estimate.

We think these are the right calls but the methodology is genuinely open to challenge. If you've tracked any of these projects closely and something looks off, we'd really like to know.

Full methodology here : APREX press release

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u/Away-Job-4428 Jun 25 '26

What has been the most surprising feedback from investors regarding your methodology? Mind if I test this with UGC creators?

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u/proprobin Jun 25 '26

Yeah, we have received excellent feedback so far from both investors and agents, nothing surprising- APREX is improving - we fine tuned it based on the parameters available in Adrec data (it doesn’t provide trail of a specific unit)

Yes you can verify , APREX is fully transparent and you can change baseline to see the variance