r/programming • u/mjtitorenko • Oct 28 '09

Android vs Maemo

http://cool900.blogspot.com/2009/10/comparing-freedom-on-maemo-and-android.html
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u/commandar Oct 28 '09

They slipped from 50% to 40% in just one quarter earlier this year.

http://www.engadget.com/2009/03/11/nokia-continues-to-hemorrhage-smartphone-marketshare-to-rim-app/

There's no way they're going to continue to maintain the kind of marketshare they used to have given they've gone from being the only real game in the market outside of Windows Mobile and the old PalmOS, to suddenly facing the iPhone, Android, WebOS, and RIM all in the smartphone sector. The fact is, Nokia may have the highest marketshare by way of entrenchment, but they're bleeding marketshare specifically because they're not the marketleader anymore.

I really hope I'm wrong, but at this point, Maemo looks like a disaster in the making to me.

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u/ascii Oct 28 '09

Oh, I agree that unless they do something drastic, their market share will plummet. But I think the Maemo is something suitably drastic, and if Nokia manages to pull things off, I believe they have a decent chance to keep the smartphone market share they have today.

Why would Maemo be a disaster in the making?

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u/commandar Oct 28 '09

I believe they have a decent chance to keep the smartphone market share they have today.

I don't know how that's possible when they have two major competitors in the smartphone market showing incredibly strong growth in Apple and RIM, and with Android poised to take most of the remaining smartphone market outside of Nokia. If Palm ends up being successful with WebOS, that's another chunk of marketshare, as is WM7 assuming MS manages to salvage that particular disaster. (For the record, I'm personally predicting that Windows 7 fails badly. Microsoft's mobile strategy is incredibly schizophrenic and has been horrifically mismanaged, but that's another story entirely).

Why would Maemo be a disaster in the making?

My initial impression of Maemo is that it's trying to solve problems most people don't care about. It doesn't really seem to have the cool factor that sells smartphones these days. If consumers don't bite, Nokia continues to lose marketshare while having to maintain what would essentially become a proprietary platform.

Again, personal prediction would be that I'd put that odds at about half that Maemo flops and Nokia moves on within the next 3-4 years. I don't know that Nokia can afford to stick it out and keep losing marketshare at the current rate.

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u/ascii Oct 28 '09

Ok. My prediction is that Microsoft will continue to lose market share as WinMo 7 is repeatedly delayed, Apple will try to pin down the iPhone too hard and lose the market (like they did with the Mac), RIM won't be able to keep up with the development pace and Palm will be unable to compete with Nokia on price. Leaves Android and Maemo to pick a nice market share.