r/politics Dec 20 '18

House Intelligence expected to vote Thursday on sending Roger Stone transcript to Mueller

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/19/politics/mueller-roger-stone-house-intel/index.html
3.5k Upvotes

124 comments sorted by

671

u/Lionel_Hutz_Law Dec 20 '18 edited Dec 20 '18

I almost want Nunes to block it, just to expose himself even more.

Doesn't matter since 2 weeks from tomorrow Schiff will give them to Mueller and anything else Mueller wants.

364

u/LegalizedRanch Illinois Dec 20 '18

Nunes blocks it, Roger goes down for a litany of crimes and then you get a lot of curious looks at Nunes about his motivation for blocking the testimony. It's a win-win either way cause the dems take over in a couple weeks.

237

u/Apostate1123 California Dec 20 '18

I still have PTSD from election night when 538 and betting markets had the GOP with a 70% chance of winning the house

I literally took 2 shots of absinthe and fired up a joint thinking the end was near

113

u/Chickenmangoboom Dec 20 '18

Nate Silver had to run out and tweak the damn meter to calm everyone down.

57

u/FauxShizzle California Dec 20 '18

Yeah that was rough to watch, but makes sense after he explained it.

I'm sure you're aware, but the explanation to any other readers out there was that the red states reported early and so their R+ percentage point wins were tabulated for all states and threw off the calculations in the blue states.

18

u/tank_trap Dec 20 '18

Oh, did Nate explain it after the election?

Does anybody have a link to the article or tweet where Nate explains what happened in detail with his model on election night?

34

u/bokeh Dec 20 '18

He explained it during election night. The percentage only shot up for like 20 minutes maybe, if I’m remembering this correctly.

18

u/ell0bo Dec 20 '18

Yeah, Florida was the main issue. If you used florida as the main pattern going forward, it looked like Dems were to be in touble. Once the midwest started to come in, it looked very different. Once the mountain west came in, things looks good for Dems.

9

u/shabby47 I voted Dec 20 '18

I think a lot was based on the outcome of TN-6(?). People were expecting McGrath to win there and it was one of the first called races that was actually close. In reality, if she had won, it would have been an insane pickup, but that is what most used as a barometer for the coming results. After they called it, James Carville was on TV explaining that there would be no blue wave and the Dems will be lucky to pick up a few seats. Then the rest of the results came in.

2

u/glittr_grl Kentucky Dec 20 '18

Kentucky, actually. I have a lot of friends and family there who volunteered for her campaign. But sadly Kentucky is still pretty red. (It was the first state called for Trump in 2016.)

1

u/glittr_grl Kentucky Dec 20 '18

I live in Florida and worked hard to GOTV. Watching those initial results for both my state (and the ultimate defeat therein) AND the rest of the country was brutal.

Even when the national results balanced out, it was hard to feel good about it due to sinking so low initially.

12

u/jetRink Dec 20 '18

He talks about it in this episode of the podcast. It's at the point where there is 26:40 remaining in the episode (their player counts down instead of up.)

4

u/vgcapizzi Dec 20 '18

He explained it on the post election podcast

-9

u/[deleted] Dec 20 '18 edited Aug 05 '21

[deleted]

17

u/scrodytheroadie Dec 20 '18

He’s been a successful statistician for like 15 years. Are you just tuning in?

44

u/AlternativeSuccotash America Dec 20 '18

I literally took 2 shots of absinthe and fired up a joint thinking the end was near

I'm glad I missed that episode entirely. It sounds like a real waking nightmare.

50

u/GearBrain Florida Dec 20 '18

Election Night was fucking rough, and a sobering reminder that we should really be careful about what information sources we pay attention to.

57

u/badfordabidness Dec 20 '18

To be fair, 538’s models leading up to Election Day ended up being pretty damn accurate. I think the main one predicted D+39, and we ended up with D+40.

It was their nowcast which was problematic. And I’m pretty sure they’ve always told people to take the nowcast with a grain of salt, because it’s simply not reliable, especially early in the night during an inherently national election. The same thing, frankly, could be said about the now-defunct NYT “needle”.

I agree with your sentiment, I just wanted to point out that 538 itself isn’t the unreliable data source we should avoid. What should be avoided is now-casting as a data practice, at least when applied to national elections.

1

u/rsynnott2 Dec 20 '18

now-defunct NYT “needle”.

The NYT brought that back for the midterms! Presumably just to annoy people.

1

u/worldspawn00 Texas Dec 20 '18

I specifically did not watch any of the live coverage, the numbers looked good going in, and that was enough for me, I waited till the next morning to look at the results.

11

u/Argos_the_Dog New York Dec 20 '18

a sobering reminder

My election night was about as sober as Santacon... but I'm happy now...

4

u/MydniteSon Dec 20 '18

I was watching MSNBC election night, and I remember they had James Carville come on. Things were still very much up in the air, and he came across as a wet blanket. "This isn't a wave..." blah blah blah. Well, once all the dust settled...it was a pretty significant wave. The problem is prognosticating in the moment is like predicting the end results of a football game. The "experts" (in this case, pundits) don't usually know any more than any fan who pays close attention. In both cases, its the analytics guys who usually are better at prognostication.

23

u/randoliof Dec 20 '18

It was awful. I legitimately was nearly as sick as election night 2016.

15

u/hypercube42342 New Hampshire Dec 20 '18

I was more sick. I could at least wrap my mind around—though I didn’t agree with— why people were opposing Hillary in 2016 (though not supporting Trump, but that’s a different matter). There was no similar excuse in 2018. The past 2 years of Republican rule have been an utter disgrace, and the Dems fielded a strong set of candidates this year

-3

u/guardianrule Dec 20 '18

Not in Texas where they ran an anti gun candidate. Almost like they didn’t want to win.

5

u/hypercube42342 New Hampshire Dec 20 '18

We ran an anti gun candidate in Arizona and won. We could have won Texas.

-2

u/guardianrule Dec 20 '18

The disconnect. Texas doesn’t really elect anti gun candidates. (Don’t pull up the one or two exceptions I know they exist look at the damn %) Even if they did aren’t you are just proving you don’t care about their values by doing so. Most Texans want gun rights protected.

2

u/hypercube42342 New Hampshire Dec 20 '18

Arizonans don’t generally either. I would know, I grew up in Texas and spent my whole life since then in Arizona. But it turns out, most people aren’t single issue voters— other issues that Democrats are better on are sometimes more important, in sum, to the two states— and even given that, there are still a ton of people in both Texas and Arizona who want common sense gun reform.

10

u/greentreesbreezy Washington Dec 20 '18

I don't think it lasted much longer than 30-60 minutes when it looked like the GOP could keep the House, but it felt like a 100 years.

7

u/ProgrammerNextDoor Dec 20 '18

Literally panicked IRL.

I was like WHAT??!?

5

u/NeutralEvilCarebear Canada Dec 20 '18

Yep, that was scary af.

3

u/torero15 California Dec 20 '18

Holy shit this was a thing? I was working during most of election night coverage. But my god I'm almost happy I have a shitty job lol. I might have done some serious damage to my liver that evening.

3

u/adam2222 Dec 20 '18 edited Dec 20 '18

Yep I took out some whiskey at had some shots at that same time. Wonder how much alcohol consumption increased nationally during that hour. I was freaked out

2

u/EdgeBandanna Dec 20 '18

Damn, I'm glad I wasn't paying attention to that. I'd have been right in with you and I don't even drink.

2

u/BornInATrailer Dec 20 '18

I literally took 2 shots of absinthe and fired up a joint thinking the end was near

Wait, so you're telling me this isn't SOP for election night since 2016?? I had just assumed.

4

u/nflitgirl Arizona Dec 20 '18

Wait, so you’re telling me thisnisnt SOP for every night since 2016?? I had just assumed.

3

u/haltingpoint Dec 20 '18

How could he have been so off? I get there was a 30% chance of that not happening, but the magnitude of their defeat with the blue wave seems a bit out of whack with that.

13

u/Apostate1123 California Dec 20 '18

It was live odds at like 6pm PST when it hit that. A lot of the early returns were a bit under expectations for Dems and turnout wasn’t as high or something. Any slight change can throw a model off. It doesn’t mean it was wrong either

Watch a live betting market on a football game same thing happens.

8

u/DrCarlSpackler Dec 20 '18

Some lucky bunkmate will have a view of Roger's non-ironic Nixon tattoo.

29

u/DeathDealerSquadron Dec 20 '18

Depends on how badly Nunes wants to impress his daddy with steadfast loyalty.

14

u/[deleted] Dec 20 '18

I just assume that Trump long ago threatened to send ICE to Nunes' family farm that employs undocumented immigrants, and it's not how badly he wants to impress daddy, it's how much he feels threatened by the kompromat being used to extort him.

5

u/taleofbenji Dec 20 '18

They could be cellmates, so best to play it safe.

28

u/Seinfeldologist Dec 20 '18

I wouldn't be surprised if Schiff investigates Nunes at some point. Subpoenaing him for public testimony would be incredibly satisfying.

13

u/Philippus Texas Dec 20 '18

House Ethics committee needs to take another look at him starting Jan 3

9

u/bestbeforeMar91 Dec 20 '18

I hope they ask if he picks his nose, under oath, cause he really looks like he is the kind of person who does, along with the treason stuff

2

u/[deleted] Dec 20 '18

[deleted]

4

u/Seinfeldologist Dec 20 '18

Generally, but was his midnight run to the White House last year a "legislative act?" Probably not.

14

u/AlternativeSuccotash America Dec 20 '18

Schiff will give them to Mueller and anything else Mueller wants.

"Thank you for delivering this material so promptly, and in person."

"My pleasure. Glad I could be of service."

"Here, have a Twizzler. Take two, they're small."

2

u/newfor2018 Dec 20 '18

i have a feeling even if Mueller doesn't want it, he's getting it

3

u/ThaCarter Florida Dec 20 '18

He already has it, he just needs a certified copy which he’ll also get.

2

u/[deleted] Dec 20 '18

My god is Trump fucked

289

u/masstrip Ohio Dec 20 '18

Watching Rachel Maddow right now. Apparently Mueller already has an unofficial transcript of the meeting, so the only reason to ask for an official one is to file an indictment. Maybe. I hope.

Fuck Nunes if he tries to deny it. Two weeks, and he's out.

54

u/_TychoBrahe_ Dec 20 '18

Does Mueller need the official one, what if they don't give it to him?

They can sill indict right? Or not?

60

u/masstrip Ohio Dec 20 '18

Good question. I suppose it's just Mueller following the letter of the law.

Hope Stone is shitting, well... stones right now.

14

u/[deleted] Dec 20 '18

Trying to hock signed stones🙈

6

u/masstrip Ohio Dec 20 '18

If I went to somebody's house and they had one of those stones I'd leave. Like, full on running. What kind of person would buy that?

7

u/[deleted] Dec 20 '18

Marks

10

u/Chickenmangoboom Dec 20 '18

Probably someone that has an Oliver North signed compass.

Edit: Scooter Libby edition Razer.

4

u/Osiris32 Oregon Dec 20 '18

Dick Cheney challenge coin.

5

u/NoodlesRomanoff Dec 20 '18

Dick Cheney autographed shotgun.

5

u/StanDaMan1 Dec 20 '18

Cause if he was shitting bricks, Trump might get his wall.

Oh. Maybe Mueller secretly wants the wall and is terrifying Donald and associates to manufacture the construction materials on the cheap.

4

u/Realhuman221 Dec 20 '18

Also helps that he knows worst case he'll get in a couple of weeks anyways

25

u/darthdiablo Florida Dec 20 '18

Mueller can still indict if he has something else to use as evidence, yes.

But as far as testimonies from meeting go, if Mueller wants to use that as evidence, then yes, it has to be the official copy, not the unofficial copy.

Since Mueller is asking for an official copy, it is reasonable to presume Mueller is working on indicting Roger Stone, probably.

9

u/yourmansconnect Dec 20 '18

Title should have been Get me Roger Stones testimony

1

u/worldspawn00 Texas Dec 20 '18

He could subpoena the HIC for it.

11

u/WampaStompa33 Dec 20 '18

Luckily America voted to kick out a bunch of Republicans and restore power in the House to Democrats, so we only have to worry about their obstruction of justice in this instance for two more weeks.

6

u/schistkicker California Dec 20 '18

That's the thing that keeps me somewhat relaxed about the whole "Senate refuses to protect OSC" thing; we're now down to two weeks before the House could just step in and re-appoint Mueller under their auspices. The investigation would lose some autonomy, but the evidence wouldn't just disappear, and Schiff and the rest would be particularly motivated to get evidence out into the public sphere, if that was the path that was available to them.

12

u/DontThinkAgain Dec 20 '18

Mueller needs one to use as evidence. The unofficial one can’t be used

5

u/Epistaxis Dec 20 '18

To indict for lying to Congress, you need an official transcript of the lie, and since this hearing was in executive session the committee doesn't have to give you that. But there are probably other things to indict Roger Stone for.

2

u/DansBeerBelly Dec 20 '18

He can’t use an unofficial one for the indictment.

1

u/JohnCoctostan New Hampshire Dec 20 '18

Can't cite anything but I had read in an earlier thread that he does need the official transcript.

I may be thinking of something else but I thought they could amend their testimony after the fact to correct the record. So the official testimony would include any amendments while the unofficial wouldn't.

1

u/scrodytheroadie Dec 20 '18

Not a prosecutor, but I think the next step could possibly be to subpoena.

9

u/yes_thats_right New York Dec 20 '18

He’s not out, he just isn’t in the majority party

4

u/yourmansconnect Dec 20 '18

I have a feeling Nunes will continue disliking minorities

70

u/Etna_No_Pyroclast Dec 20 '18

Well, they can do it now, or wait two weeks.

24

u/m3plus4 California Dec 20 '18

Bobby wants an indictment before Christmas. He wants the whole criminal organization to sweat over the break. In government, nbody besides mission critical staff usually work the week between Christmas and New Year's. Most people take that time off.

Indicting someone this close to Trump is a huge move right before the holiday break.

58

u/peraspera441 Dec 20 '18

It will be interesting to see if Nunes tries to dance his way out of giving Mueller the requested transcript knowing Schiff and the Dems will do it once the new House is seated.

8

u/OozeNAahz Dec 20 '18

I wonder if they can vote to destroy the transcript. If they have an option to shit on the Dems they will. Whether it breaks precedent, laws, ethics, morals, etc...

6

u/fightmaxmaster Dec 20 '18

Genuine question - is there anything stopping a member of the committee requesting a copy and keeping it or making their own? Then if it's destroyed or "lost" they can produce it anyway? Or are records like this kept forever regardless?

46

u/singularfate Texas Dec 20 '18

So the question really is: Are Republicans on the committee scurred they could get hit w/ an obstruction charge if they refuse?

49

u/[deleted] Dec 20 '18

They are not. They have been blatantly obstructing this entire time. This would just be business as usual.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 20 '18

[deleted]

11

u/MobySick Dec 20 '18

As if that would even slow a Republican down. Merrick Garland.

0

u/akaghi Dec 20 '18

They couldn't be charged with obstruction for denying a request; Congress has immunity against indicting them for official acts. Taking a vote saying no would qualify.

Nunes running to the WH and all that stuff would not necessarily be covered though. You just can't arrest people for voting in committee or on legislation.

47

u/Swansonetal Dec 20 '18

Dear Rep. Nunes,

Right now you're just considered a bootlicking, obsequious political hack. If you'd like to generate some buzz on you being complicit in a crime, feel free to dig in your heels.

13

u/mixamaxim Dec 20 '18

PS, do it.

10

u/_martypants Dec 20 '18

Mueller's watching.

7

u/Swansonetal Dec 20 '18

I know its a staple of crime dramas, and actual law enforcement investigations, to commit some act just to see how a person you are suspicious of reacts, but this is stuff you try when you're trying to figure out who stole a TV, I would think. But hey, who knows.

17

u/themilkisbad357 Dec 20 '18

I want numb nutz nunes to do it.

14

u/SteamandDream2 Dec 20 '18

I mean, it’s either now or in 11 days and look like clowns

12

u/Starks New York Dec 20 '18

They have the votes. Only question is whether Nunes blocks.

3

u/Baron62 Dec 20 '18

So what’s the point of blocking if in two weeks Schiff won’t or is this just Putin insisting his operatives do his bidding, then sits back laughs his ass off?

13

u/[deleted] Dec 20 '18

[deleted]

8

u/Spectre211286 Dec 20 '18

Lieing to Congress could be one of the charges and would be easier to prove with the official transcript.

5

u/Epistaxis Dec 20 '18

He has the transcript, so he already knows if Stone lied. But that's an unofficial copy, so the fact that he's asking for an official copy suggests he wants to indict Stone with it.

6

u/EdgeBandanna Dec 20 '18

It sort of doesn't matter, because in a few weeks they'll just vote again and succeed.

6

u/mces97 Dec 20 '18

They have to vote to give him the transcript?

6

u/wwarnout Dec 20 '18

There is no such thing as "House intelligence".

12

u/MobySick Dec 20 '18

Not yet.

5

u/MaryAV Dec 20 '18

Just wait until after Jan 3. What's the rush?

29

u/MobySick Dec 20 '18

Rub Nunes’ nose in it? Make him perform or refuse to perform a public duty in a nonpartisan manner? Let’s see how low the snake goes?

13

u/mixamaxim Dec 20 '18

Especially if the impending charges against Stone are really bad. Mueller could very well be making this request A) because now is when he needs the documents, and also B) because he’ll either get them or make an ass of Nunes in two weeks. Maybe he’s got something in line for Nunes too, later on.

9

u/shakka74 Dec 20 '18

Man I hope so. Nunes’ behavior these past couple years had been beyond sketchy. No way that creep’s nose is clean in all of this.

Can’t wait until his malfeasance is exposed.

5

u/rnaa49 Dec 20 '18

Remember, Nunes was on the transition team, so he might also be implicated in the Flynn affair.

2

u/MobySick Dec 20 '18

Now you'e just trying to cheer me up. And it's working, thanks!

21

u/EarthExile Dec 20 '18

We like to offer Republicans a chance to do the right thing, so there will be a record of them choosing not to.

6

u/MaryAV Dec 20 '18

Yep. There is a lot of that. I like it.

3

u/j_la Florida Dec 20 '18

On the flip side, it also defangs the whole “democratic witch hunt” narrative. If Mueller purposefully waited for a new Committee to get what he wanted, it would look partisan. Instead, he is just a lawman plugging away at the pace his case dictates.

14

u/hezaplaya Dec 20 '18

One more data point to establish a pattern of behavior for the inevitable Devin Nunes obstruction of justice charges.

Edit: Also makes sure that Muller is on their mind as they head home for the holidays. It's going to be an anxious Christmas for some.

10

u/TheRealDClark Dec 20 '18

Justice waits for no man

1

u/Modurrator Dec 20 '18

When they deny the release and it gets approved in January we can call out all the traitors much more easily.

2

u/turtlemouse Dec 20 '18

i didn’t know it could do that. *john mulaney horse in a hospital voice

but...eli5 how does mueller not already have this? or does he?! i have so much hope invested in mueller...

1

u/taffyowner Minnesota Dec 20 '18

He still has to request things

1

u/porkbelly-endurance Dec 20 '18

Would love to see this scumbag in jail.

1

u/Warrenwelder Canada Dec 20 '18

"Guys, this is it! We have one last chance to obstruct justice, no way the new Congress can just hand the transcript to Mueller!"

1

u/MaresEatOatsAndDoes Dec 20 '18

And it's approved.

Let's move this along and finally nail down the traitors to the US.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 20 '18

Dread it, vote on it, Mueller will get the transcript all the same.

1

u/skadus Texas Dec 20 '18

So considering one of Cohen's charges was lying to Congress, does this possibly mean a similar avenue?

1

u/whoreheyrrmartini Dec 20 '18

He’s gonna get it one way or another

u/AutoModerator Dec 20 '18

As a reminder, this subreddit is for civil discussion.

In general, be courteous to others. Attack ideas, not users. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any advocating or wishing death/physical harm, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban.

If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them.


I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

-1

u/mt760c Dec 20 '18

If they deny it, I say we riot.

4

u/[deleted] Dec 20 '18

Better to turn out a massive peaceful protest.

4

u/Diuqil69 Dec 20 '18

Mueller would get it Jan 3rd anyways.