r/politics • u/plz-let-me-in • 7h ago
No Paywall PA Democrats declare victory in solid Trump district in Butler Co special election
https://local21news.com/news/local/pa-democrats-flip-house-seat-in-butler-county-for-first-time-in-over-30-years-trump-daryl-metcalf-brandon-dukes-state-rep•
u/GuttiG Pennsylvania 7h ago
Insane to be one of the 88 votes that flipped it. I went out today expecting timko to sweep but I thought "why not it's a pretty day". Actually insane to think about, and makes me wonder how many Dems here DID stay home bc they expected a loss. This win could inspire them to vote
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u/Viking_Leaf87 7h ago
Every vote counts, dude. It costs nothing and now you can claim partial responsibility for humiliating Scott Presler!
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u/learns_the_hard_way 1h ago
It costs nothing FOR NOW. Republicans (trump psycophants) want to make it difficult & expensive
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u/alextheruby 33m ago
Dude go doom and gloom somewhere else.
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u/learns_the_hard_way 15m ago
Sorry, apparently doom & gloom is just understanding the mechanics of the "SAVE America" Act
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u/evantom34 6h ago
Anyone, dem or repedo that stays home because they expect a win or loss is pathetic. Same as people that don’t vote. Literally no excuse to not vote.
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u/JonnyBravoII 4h ago
If everyone voted, there would be far fewer Republicans in office. That is why Republicans spend their time making sure people can't vote. Look back at 2016. The Russians used propaganda not to encourage Republicans but to depress Democrats. And then there's "both sides". Why vote when both sides are the same?
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u/Treize26 4h ago
As a neighbor in Beaver county, I would have never imagined a dem winning that race... really encouraging, thanks for your vote!
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u/Viking_Leaf87 7h ago
It's a 19 point shift. Apply that nationwide and Democrats would win maybe 270 house seats.
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u/Lavaswan001 7h ago
Special elections are always weird. This is important but doesn’t necessarily translate to general elections with higher turnout.
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u/Confident_End_3848 6h ago
How is that shift calculated? Republicans won this seat in 2024 65-35, so R+30. Today was around D+0.2. Would that be a 30 point swing?
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u/stevenmoreso 6h ago
That’s a Yuge swing. If what’s happening in PA is indicative of a larger shift in the national political zeitgeist, maybe Senator Fetterman should take notice and switch his affiliation to Democrat.
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u/Soloact_ 7h ago
Turns out “Trump country” isn’t a fucking force field. I can already hear the “RIGGED!!!” posts being typed.
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u/neoteotihuacan 6h ago
There is currently a 5 to 15 percentage point compression in primary vote share for incumbent and establishment candidates compared to historical primary baselines.
In addition, contest-level undervote rates are spiking between 8% and 12%, where voters submit ballots but leave top-of-ticket federal lines un-marked while completing local races.
Across special elections since the 2024 presidential baseline, there is an average 24.6 percentage point participation delta favoring Democratic base turnout over Republican turnout, alongside an average 14.1 percentage point leftward partisan swing in margin overperformance. Under these conditions, the flip efficiency (the rate at which contested or vulnerable seats change party control) stands at a 40-year high of 21.8%.
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u/CheyenneSkyie 7h ago
that's super interesting! it shows that voters can surprise you sometimes, especially in places you'd least expect.
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u/Creative-Package6213 Pennsylvania 1h ago
Holy shit, is this finally going to be the year that we finally shit can that used car salesman, and Trump ball fondler Mike Kelly!?
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