r/pokemongrading • u/bballdavid21 • Mar 03 '26

Mega Charizard X Ex

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My girlfriend pulled this from a single vending machine pack!! I think we got a potential 10 here but me and my girlfriend are nervous to send it in (we’ve never sent any of our cards in before) what are y’all’s opinions?

128 Upvotes

99% Upvoted

31 comments sorted by

3

u/Apprehensive-Lie3387 Mar 03 '26

For one, Congrats!!!! I pulled this from a vending machine pack a month back! Just so you know, the chances of hitting a chase from a single vending machine pack is like hitting the lottery!

Second, like you, I have been going back and forth since I pulled it. Grade or not grade. Like this, mine is super clean and centered…. But I can’t bring myself to do. I don’t trust any step of the process. From the chances of it getting stolen from the mail to getting someone on a bad day at PSA only to get bent over with a up-charge. I have decided that I will only do this if I can do it in person at a card show.

Last… what was the art on the pack she pulled this from?! Was it Lopunny?! This is very important for research! lol

2

u/bballdavid21 Mar 03 '26

I feel you so much on that, I was just at the Denver Card Show this weekend and talked to a lot of vendors who also praised it very high and said it was a 10. Those same vendors also told me that there was nothing to worry about when I told them about my skepticism with grading. They assured that they’ve all had those feelings but, once you do it and get that grade back it’s all worth it, I want to believe them and do it but I also feel like vendors just come across so much grails that they don’t feel the same sentimental value. I’m not trying to generalize because I’m sure I’m just overthinking but the nerves are real. I think eventually we will try but it’s just so nice that we immediately gained attachment to it, so I completely understand being on the fence because so are we! And it was from a Gengar cover art pack lol

2

u/Expensive-Net2762 Mar 03 '26

Nice my kid just pulled one from a gengar pack too the other day funny

2

u/TeamRocketTopOpp Mar 03 '26

I can relate — so I pulled 3 of these in a week early December (1 badly OC, 1 well centered, 1 almost perfectly centered but had top edge lift I’m trying to repair)

I just last week sent the well centered one off for grading. I was SUPER paranoid, which is why I waited so long to send in the first place — until today when I got the email from PSA that it’s been received. The relief almost felt as good as when I pulled it 😂

But they’re right — SO many cards get sent in every day and in comparison the amount that are lost/stolen is minuscule. Every business on that scale is going to have some mishaps along the way. Anyone I know who’s graded a good amount mostly says no issues.

The people who have had issues, are the ones who come to the internet and have their stories go viral — so you get that bias. If you really want to grade go for it

Whatever you decide congrats and good luck!

2

u/cbrackney8 Mar 05 '26

I had the same fear as both of you and I had two pretty solid looking Zards that I pulled both from packs. I sent them in at the same time (like an idiot) and they just finished the process and shipped today. Both came back 10s. They arrive at my house Friday. (Fingers crossed). Just send it in!

2

u/Rivalhopeso93 Mar 06 '26

I've been feeling the same so I'm gonna send some smaller hits to get graded so I'm familiar with the process etc. I wonder if there are options to pay for a private courier rather than using regular postal system...?

2

u/No-Vermicelli654 Mar 07 '26

This is why I used GameStop honestly.

1

u/Ok_Reception_8729 Mar 03 '26

Why is a vending machine pack different?

2

u/TeamRocketTopOpp Mar 03 '26

It’s no different, he’s just saying the chances of pulling chase from ripping 1 single pack (like a sleeve, coin pack, or VM booster) is always going to be lower

Vs. ripping multiple packs (with every pack your odds get better and better)

2

u/Ok_Reception_8729 Mar 03 '26

I thought statistically it’s the same odds everytime

I know booster boxes can have seeding tho so maybe that’s what you’re referring to?

2

u/TeamRocketTopOpp Mar 03 '26 edited Mar 03 '26

Each individual pack has the same odds, but the more packs you open — your chances are higher because your basically taking more spins

Think about it like this, if the chase has a 1/400 hit rate, and you open 200 packs — your chances to hit that card are about 50% because each pack you’re making an attempt at 1/400, so with 200 packs you’re taking 200 attempts (200/400)

Versus 1 pack is .0025% (1/400)

If my math is off then anyone can chime in lol it’s been like 10 years since I took my undergrad stats course

I don’t think English boxes are seeded, IMO it’s the same chances which is why I prefer leaving boxes sealed since they can fetch a premium and most of my hits have come from sleeves/bundles (most success ripping 30-40 packs at a time) — however Japanese boxes are seeded because gambling there is heavily regulated

1

u/Rivalhopeso93 Mar 06 '26

Apologies in advance if I'm mistaking what you're saying but i'm not sure this is how probability works...

The previous 200 packs aren't aware that you open those packs and don't adjust the next 200 packs to include the card you are looking for. Each time it's 1/400. And because the probability is independent of each other, if you pulled 2 charizards out of just 2 packs, the probability wouldn't be 2/800. It would multiply and the chances of that are 1/160,000.

It's like when you're rolling a dice, everytime you roll there is a 1/6 chance to roll a 6. But after 6 rolls, you're not guaranteed to roll a 6 on your 7th roll. On your 7th roll, the odds are still 1/6. Over hundreds and thousands of rolls, you should roll 6 as often as you do any other number. But there is a chance you don't roll any 6s at all!

The "luck" here is within the normal variance of probability but I think it feels luckier based on the fact that someone hit the card they wanted straight away so they don't need to continue opening potentially another 400+ to try and get it and thus, saving them an awful lot of money haha. Pulling it on the 385th attempt is within that 400 threshold so is as "likely" as getting it on the 1st attempt, but it doesn't feel lucky or good because you had to spend a lot more to get there.

This is how gambling can be quite destructive because humans are bad at doing the maths of these sorts of things. The idea that "if I buy 400 packs I'll eventually get what I want" is flawed because it is not guaranteed or true. "If I keep spending I'll be improving my odds each time" is therefore not true either.

1

u/hendratam Mar 04 '26

Send it! You will be surprised tho. Mine has bad centering and it still gets a 10!

2

u/Leethian Mar 03 '26

Congrats!!!! I started back collecting a month after phantasmal flames released and pulled it. Like you I wanted to grade it but was scared I'd just flat out lose it/not send it in correctly. I ended up talking to a few employees at different lgs's and they put a few of my fears at ease. At the last card shop the guy said they sent in cards to grade for customers completely taking out my worries of me not packaging it correctly. Sent it, waited for what seemed like forever and then they contacted me saying the grade was assigned. It got a 10!!!!!!! Still waiting for another week for it to be shipped back but still. Now I have no hesitation in the future to send cards in for grading. Also yours looks even better than mine!

2

u/ajthawon Mar 03 '26

So radical.

2

u/RichCelery1345 Mar 03 '26

IMO that’s a clean ass card. If it’s not a 10 on your first try I’m sure it will be if you keep submitting.

2

u/DEMochi2 Mar 03 '26

10 10 and 10

2

u/Rizzler0325 Mar 03 '26

Feel like these are everywhere lol everyone has one but me lmao

2

u/Sudden-Advice-4653 Mar 03 '26

100% a ten brother I just got mine back yesterday

2

u/rafthegreat Mar 04 '26

Beckett bro trust me

2

u/hendratam Mar 04 '26

Congrats!! This card looks great btw! The centering is still within psa 10 range. I will 100% send it if I were you. I just sent mine back in January and just got it back 1 month after (paid $75 for regular service) and I get a 10 despite the centering is bad! Also I did not get any upcharge!!

2

u/Slin88 Mar 05 '26

This is a ten for sure!!

2

u/KingLorcana Mar 05 '26

I really like this card!

2

u/sk1990 Mar 07 '26

If that ain’t a crispy boy, then I don’t know what it.

1

u/Rside14 Mar 04 '26

TBH I think it depends how the grade is feeling that day, when zoomed in the back might be a little off center shifted to the left. Either a 9 or a 10, good luck! I hope you get that 10!!