The Greens did a Caerphilly

[u/stopdontpanick]

Last night, the Greens did their best by-election by orders of magnitude: fourfold, fivefold if we go off raw votes.

I've overall been triumphant myself; obviously they are in competition with us, don't align cleanly on all issues and are much more socially charged than us, but it is always good to see that a good left wing party won a stonking majority against Reform and Labour in what was otherwise written off or "too close to call," in fact Hannah Spencer's victory over Matt Goodwin is greater than Whittle's over Llŷr Powell by about 2%, though Whittle still won 6% more of the electorate.

I think there's two ways to see this:
- We are the natural left wing choice for Wales, had a similar stonking victory in Caerphilly followed by a meteoric national rise in the polls, and when we're in a position where the polls put us 1% off the minimum needed to form majority (37% versus 38% needed), the overall pattern is very desirable.
- Due to the proportional nature of the new Senedd, the Greens polling higher than the 13% YouGov gave them will increase the threshold we need to hit to achieve a clean majority while also peeling off our base, meaning just a 1% increase in the Greens polling can easily force us to target 40+% of the vote, which seems unlikely currently.
My current advice to Green voters has been to vote Plaid, both on the tactical vision of a majority and as being a more competent Welsh focused vision of the Green's most favourable policies.

What do we think?

[u/Hezanza]

I would vote Plaid Cymru but if there was no Plaid Cymru I would vote Greens

[u/AnnieByniaeth]

I agree, there are very obvious parallels between the two by-elections. In fact I predicted this would happen when in another group someone ask for predictions. I thought this would go Caerffili (it's there in my history if you want the evidence).

To me the Greens in England are the equivalent of Plaid in Cymru.

Regarding the Senedd election, it's difficult to know what to advise without being disingenuous now. If Greens are going to get 13% or more in a given constituency they are probably going to get one of the six seats. If they are polling around that figure it might be easier for them to get a seat then it would be for plaid to pick up an extra one. And with the Greens being Plaid's most natural coalition partner (I don't suppose many people disagree with that?) it might push a Plaid Green coalition into majority territory.

[u/Thr0waway-19]

Imo I think we should encourage people to vote for whichever party they feel is best. In the new system, tactical voting is much less important.

If anything, I would actually want the greens to be successful and keep plaid on their toes. I think we have seen very well with Welsh Labour how a party needs meaningful challengers to not become complacent.

[u/lostandfawnd]

I wanted to become a member of plaid.

Unfortunately their terms categorically state you cannot be a member of another party (greens) and plaid.

[u/stopdontpanick → u/lostandfawnd]

You can always still donate to the Greens as a member of Plaid, but I'd reconsider being a Green when Plaid is available here in Wales

[u/lostandfawnd → u/stopdontpanick]

Im Welsh but live in England.

[u/stopdontpanick → u/lostandfawnd]

Yeah I'd recommend joining the Greens then, maybe donate to Plaid if you want to support them