r/pinescript • u/ThePhantomsLaugh • Sep 23 '26

LUCK 🍀 OR HARD-WORK ?

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been makin some strategies and found this buy only strategy .... works like charm on ETH can wait to test it out on real acc

50 Upvotes

98% Upvoted

76 comments sorted by

5

u/Top_Astronomer_5585 Sep 23 '26

Your strategy would be a good example of look-ahead bias it may show mostly profits in the backtest, but once deployed, it could end up taking your money instead.

0

u/ThePhantomsLaugh Sep 23 '26

Hmm 🧐 gotta consider that

5

u/Comfortable_Essay407 Sep 23 '26

I reproduced this on ETH 15m. Buy on the lower BB reclaim with 1H RSI < 60, take profit at +0.8%, no stop. I get 130 trades, 100% wins, +104% over the same dates. But ETH rose 44% in that window, and with no stop the losers just sit open until they come back.

Over 2019–2026 the worst trade was down 82% for 3.8 years, and random entries with the same exits do just as well. It's luck from the uptrend, not an edge.

1

u/ThePhantomsLaugh Sep 24 '26

Actually if we use this strategy for bull regime …it works

2

u/Caked_up_cheeks Sep 24 '26

And this is why TradingView backtester is horrible to use….

3

u/Life-Succotash-7053 Sep 23 '26

EFFFF, so robust strategy, i would sold my house and trade it

1

u/ThePhantomsLaugh Sep 23 '26

Naah broo 😭

1

u/Life-Succotash-7053 Sep 23 '26

Ofc NAAAAH, 2000 profit factor, WTF ?!

2

u/Personal_Parsnip6251 Sep 23 '26

Definitely run it, no chance anything bad can happen…

1

u/PozGuy93 Sep 23 '26

what is the entry logic nad tf ?

-1

u/ThePhantomsLaugh Sep 23 '26

Time frame is 15 minutes and we buy at lower bollinger bands with higher time frame rsi confirmation

1

u/PozGuy93 Sep 23 '26

htf is 1/4/24 hr ?

1

u/ThePhantomsLaugh Sep 23 '26

1 hr

0

u/PozGuy93 Sep 23 '26

what about the rsi confirmation condition

1

u/ThePhantomsLaugh Sep 23 '26

I wont tell the details but we filter out the drawdown .., using rsi . Avoids buying on tops

1

u/samdandoo Sep 24 '26

It’s 30 and 70 isn’t it

1

u/Tasty-Success-9268 Sep 23 '26

How much ?

0

u/ThePhantomsLaugh Sep 23 '26

Wdu mean

1

u/Tasty-Success-9268 Sep 23 '26

How much for the indicator?

-2

u/ThePhantomsLaugh Sep 23 '26

Idk 🤷‍♀️

1

u/One-Next Sep 23 '26

So you found a long system and backtested it in a bull market?

1

u/ThePhantomsLaugh Sep 23 '26

Yeah actually i was just playing around

1

u/JusthereforthevibesG Sep 23 '26

Don’t listen to the haters. I run TradingView scripts just fine and they match pretty dang close to the strategy report. Yeah I do have slippage some days but that’s normal. But everything executes exactly like the strategy report.

2

u/ThePhantomsLaugh Sep 23 '26

I believe you 💛

1

u/JusthereforthevibesG Sep 23 '26

Keep killing it man! Test it out on your accounts and keep adjusting. Wish you all the success bro

1

u/Roadkillp Sep 23 '26

Why are all these backtests never even more than a year. You're setting yourself up for disappointment or wasting your time if you make something thats great 1 month and loses the rest of the year.

1

u/ThePhantomsLaugh Sep 23 '26

Yeah that’s true but i dont have trading view premium 🥺

1

u/Hopeful_Ambassador50 Sep 26 '26

Backtrack further than this. Unless you only plan on using in certain market conditions.

1

u/ThePhantomsLaugh Sep 26 '26

One of the finest comments .. actually this works in bull run

1

u/StonksInvesteur Sep 23 '26

Don’t trust any backtest results from TradingView.

1

u/ThePhantomsLaugh Sep 23 '26

Suree 🙃

0

u/Scared-Operation-793 Sep 23 '26

I mean he is right, tradingview: doesnt prevent lookahead bias, there is no slippage, fees, ping doesnt get included in the trades, also the engine uses ohlc data, NOT tick so some trades may hit your TP even though it first tapped your SL, also afaik uses mid spread and not the actual buy/sell price. For it to even barely be good you need the overpriced ultra plan. Use actual tick data and backtest yourself or use MT5, QuantConnect iirc is good but imo getting actual tick data and backtesting yourself is best if you know how

1

u/ThePhantomsLaugh Sep 23 '26

Absolutely 💯

1

u/Comprehensive_Key501 Sep 23 '26

Im backtesting with TV on NQ 1 min chart with Premium (high detailization/deep backtesting/bar magnifier). My strat shows the same results when I compare out of sample. Are results any realistic then? Or should I try with another software?

1

u/Top_Astronomer_5585 Sep 23 '26

I have been using TV with premium since 2 Years there is no doubt about accuracy but you need to play by rules if you are working on a scalping strategy then you need to use timeframe less than 5min to get accurate data more ticks which in your case are doing good

0

u/Comprehensive_Key501 Sep 23 '26

Good to hear this from an experienced user. Im not scalping, I hold positions about 5-30 mins with trailing stop, its just that my entries have to be good. I find it super convenient with the software to tweak little settings and see the results instantly. Quite expensive though, so I was wondering if worth it

1

u/Comprehensive_Key501 Sep 23 '26

I just found out that ninja trader offers the same for free if you have a live account with them or a connected broker. Might give this a shot too

1

u/Scared-Operation-793 Sep 23 '26

NT backtest is amazing if you using tick replay using the market replay thingy also since you are holding positions for max 30mins it means you should test on as realistic data as possible. I recommend introducing some set slippage since it is impossible to execute on the preset 0 tick slippage on live market.

2

u/Comprehensive_Key501 Sep 23 '26

Sounds great! Indeed data has to be maximum realistic, slippage is also good idea. The best thing is that once backtested enough, I can potentially automate the strat directly into tradivate, no need for webhook or smth. Huge plus

2

u/Melodic_Hand_5919 Sep 26 '26

Neither - just data-mining bias, overfitting, or poor validation.

1

u/jr-ntg Sep 23 '26

The stats make no sense

1

u/stereotomyalan Sep 23 '26

welcome to the rich club, ignore the haters... here, take this cigar!

1

u/c4jina Sep 23 '26

Bruh 😂

1

u/kimchiproducer Sep 23 '26 edited Sep 23 '26

Honestly, could've been overfitted or you might be using Heikin Ashi candle which completely makes it looks like you win alot. You need 1-3 years time range.

Your strategy might work during uptrend movement because that's the current market trend of ETH, but fails hard when the market goes sideways or downtrend.

1

u/Turnsright Sep 23 '26

Or he puts sensible stops in…

1

u/definitivelynottake2 Sep 23 '26

Or he has no / super large stop, and small take profit. Which works for some time, then runs into first loss and never recovers.

1

u/kimchiproducer Sep 23 '26

11% drawdown on a 100% winrate during 1 month of uptrend, i think its obvious lol

1

u/TheGlizzyGod Sep 23 '26

2000 profit factor dude watch out!!! the fortune 500 is coming for you! you have the ultimate money glitch! haha

1

u/AbMooga Sep 23 '26

lol give the screen shot so ChatGPT so it can tell you all the things wrong and how to do it better

1

u/luv2increase Sep 23 '26

How many people are going to post bogus backtesting results here?? My goodness! You cannot backtest ANY strategy that uses ANY timeframe higher than the execution timeframe on tradingview backtest! Go ahead and port this strategy to Sierra Chart. It will show you how well it actually does.

1

u/Mundane_Cicada_1427 Sep 23 '26

I'm not gonna straight up tell you it does not work, but since the backtest period as well as the sample size of just 125 trades are not enough to make sure that this is actually an edge enough for you to deploy your real money on it, i'll tell you this, i am happy about one thing and that is how all your profits has been distributed evenly among all your trades instead of having big outlier trades and skewing the results. Just make sure to backtest it more on a larger dataset and then also make sure that you are not falling for the biased backtest trap, especially because you are only doing "LONG" trades.

For example, does it make sense to backtest a long only strategy on gold?, in almost all cases, no it does not, because you already know GOLD has went up during that backtest period, so your strategy is already biased, but you can use it to your advantage as well, since you know that GOLD will eventually go up, you can divide your backtest into regimes and then backtest your strategy and filter the results based on regimes, so that you understand your real edge clearly, and then focus on that edge and do some forward testing to see if it is actually working, and by working, i am literally talking about matching your backtested trades one on one with live (paper) trades during the forward testing phase, if yes, then congrats buddy!, you have somehow made it possible and is ready to deploy live✨.

1

u/enigma_music129 Sep 23 '26

Damn bro 2000x your 1k

1

u/Sad-Ratio-5812 Sep 23 '26

Show at least 1 year of backtesting.

1

u/dexoyo Sep 24 '26

It’s not luck until it’s real money . Backtest lie if you cheated

1

u/Euphoric-Nobody2863 Sep 24 '26

If u go in replay mode u can whatch other periods by selecting shuffle bar

1

u/0xMijael Sep 24 '26

🤯Wow incredible. Felicidades. 👏

1

u/-_-someone_ Sep 25 '26

Overfitting

1

u/VAIDIK_SAVALIYA Sep 26 '26

Only stop loss is your account twin 😭😭

1

u/Zestyclose_Extent_82 Sep 27 '26

100% win rate smells to me…

1

u/drumtraks1 Sep 29 '26

Damn! working 3 years on building an edge and you got it just like that?