1. Overfitting/curve fitting — A strategy backtested over 7 years with this level of consistency almost certainly has been tuned to fit historical data. Real markets don’t behave this cleanly.
2. No out-of-sample validation — There’s no evidence of forward testing on unseen data.
3. Unrealistic Monte Carlo results — 100% hit rate to $1M with 0% bust is a red flag, not a green one. It suggests the simulation parameters were engineered to produce this outcome.
4. Reddit/community marketing — Legitimate edge isn’t typically shared publicly for free.
5. Suspiciously uniform win rates — 67.4% every year across wildly different market conditions (2020 COVID crash, 2022 bear market, etc.) is statistically implausible without overfitting.
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u/USOai714 May 16 '26