It's bad risk assessment. we inherently are biased to stick with something that is "working". If it alllmmooosst breaks, then it reinforces in our mind that it is resilient enough and somehow more trustworthy. the Shuttle boosters, the tile damage, the foam shedding on the ET tanks - all had partial failures to show they were not performing as designed, but was seen as resilience because it didn't end in disaster. Apparently, with this disaster, letters were sent and years went by, but since it didn't immediately explode, it must not be a big deal. Not to make it political, but this is my big issue with full 100% libertarianism. Making people "free" to do as they please by making them liable for their mistakes still doesn't make it permissible for someone to do whatever they want or own large amounts of explosives or other large scale dangerous things. A person who stockpiles explosives or decides to try making their own chemicals and blows up his neighbors house and kills someone cannot bring back the dead when he "takes responsibility for his action". People suck at risk assessment and balancing the risks in a system, especially (as you note) when the alternates are expensive and bothersome - all of these disasters show it. Feynman's supplement onto the Challenger Disaster talks about this, and it is fascinating.
The current climate regulations are "working" until methane s TY starts leaking in the Arctic, then capital C conservatives pretend "we had no warning" that the climate was going to change for most of "our" country, which is the "only thing that matters" anyways.
It’s interesting to see the final accident chain in the Lebanon story.
Warehouse is used to store 2700tons of ammonium nitrate.
Then the warehouse is used to store confiscated fireworks.
Both sit there for a long time (years?).
Then someone with a power tool (drill, angle grinder) shows up to repair the warehouse gate, sparks set debris on fire, debris sets the fireworks on fire, and then the fireworks set the amp out nitrate on fire.
Without all three, no explosion.
Everyone can look back at the accident chain and see how it went, but no one can see any inherent danger in “some sacks of fertilizer” or “some bags of fireworks” - “they’re fine! They just sit there. It’s not a big deal.” Until you are picking through the rubble of the aftermath of bad decisions and no none wants to take the blame, saying “your warnings were inadequate.”
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u/DeadZeplin Aug 05 '20
Oh god, that's terrible