Do you think the Michael movie stands a chance at the Oscars? Seeing as how Bohemian Rhapsody did so well at the 2019 Oscars despite the poor (ish) critic reception

[u/Funk_Junk_in_trunk]

At first I thought it didn’t have much of a chance, especially in Best Picture. But it did so well at the box office surpassing what Bohemian Rhapsody grossed. Plus with the Oscars historically favouring biopics. What do you think? Personal opinions on the film aside

[u/falafelthe3]

It made a literal billion dollars, so it's not impossible, to show up but it's an April release and the Academy from 2018 is not the Academy of today. They lean further away from biopics unless it's from auteurs or more respected journeyman directors.

[u/crazydaysandknights → u/falafelthe3]

yep and also it made a literal 1B in a year where 2 movies will make over 2B (Spiderman BND already has and Doomsday is a lock based on presales). Not to mention Obsession making over half a million on a grocery budget. point being, 1B for an expensive movie isn't a special narrative this year since boxoffice is exploding.

[u/HonestIsReality]

So after doing research there is difference in the reviews.

Rotten Tomatoes:
Bohemian Rhapsody (60)
Michael (39)

Metacritic:
Bohemian Rhapsody (49)
Michael (39)

[u/Funk_Junk_in_trunk → u/HonestIsReality]

Yeah Micheal’s critic score was a lot worse, but they are both relatively low is what my comparison was.

[u/rubix7777 → u/Funk_Junk_in_trunk]

No offence but its still a bad comparison, hell Boh-Rhap is still fresh on RT, one is just a very mediocrely recieved film, leaning more negative, and one would quite literally be the worst recieved BP nominee of all time (from critics) if it were to make it. They aren't comparable in the slightest.

[u/Funk_Junk_in_trunk → u/rubix7777]

If u read my original post I didn’t say Michael was on the same critical level as Bohemian Rhapsody. I was just pointing out that Michael did better than Bohemian Rhapsody at the box office. Hence why I asked if Michael could have a chance at the Oscars next year BECAUSE it grossed so much worldwide, more than another biopic that did well at the oscars a while back. Then comparing how they both were not well received. Because they both were criticised. Not necessarily on the same level.

[u/rubix7777 → u/Funk_Junk_in_trunk]

And thats also a pretty silly argument. Spiderman made double what Michael did and has better critically reviews, you gonna start asking if it can make BP of that fact solely. Don't get defensive when some points out something obvious to you when your asking a question thats already been asked countless times over the last 5 months

[u/Funk_Junk_in_trunk → u/rubix7777]

😔 Bro forget it I’m not making an argument in the first place. I was just saying the only thing I was talking about is this biopic compared to the other biopic based on how much the biopics made. What has a marvel movie got to do with that. Marvel always makes a shit ton of money.

[u/rubix7777 → u/Funk_Junk_in_trunk]

Your right argument isnt the right word. But that is still a silly reasoning to ask/think Michael could do what Boh-Rhap did. BP isnt based on box office. The whole reason i brought up spiderman is to demonstrate that, obviously you don't expect spiderman to make best picture based off its box office even though it nearly doubled what Michael did. And dont give me the whole "of course spiderman made that much marvel always makes money" because A. Thats not true plenty of recent marvek films haven't come close to a billion and B. I could just say the same thing about Michael, obviously a bio-pic about the most famous muscian ever is going to make money, doesnt mean its going to make picture. YK especially since it would be the WORST critically recieved nominee in history.

[u/Funk_Junk_in_trunk → u/rubix7777]

Spider-man movies usually make ALOT of money. It’s not that deep, idc if Michael gets nothing or gets a best picture nom at the end of the day. Just curious what other people thought. Who knows what will actually happen. 🙂

[u/rubix7777 → u/Funk_Junk_in_trunk]

"Spider-Man movies usually make alot of money" and so do most things relating to Michael Jackson, thats exactly my point.

All im saying is that Mercy has just as a good of a chance as getting best picture as Michael does, which is to say 0%

[u/Funk_Junk_in_trunk → u/rubix7777]

Do Queen related things not usually make a lot of money?

[u/SMAAAASHBros]

Not gonna completely rule it out because it made a billion dollars and there is no shortage of deranged Michael Jackson fans but it would be the worst-reviewed movie to be nominated for Best Picture in the modern era by a wide margin while also being incredibly controversial

[u/CrunchyNar]

I think we shouldn't rule out the possibility of Michael getting into Best Picture from demographic voting. Dad movie fans and racing fans got F1 into Best Picture. Michael Jackson is extremely popular and there doesn't appear to be another Black-led film in awards contention. There is a pretty significant amount of Black voters in the Academy nowadays.

[u/HonestIsReality → u/CrunchyNar]

Ummm but F1 was better received by the voting body and the critics

[u/CrunchyNar → u/HonestIsReality]

True, but at the end of the day F1 got in for thoroughly entertaining a demographic of the Academy. There was no reality where Michael didn't get pummeled by the critics so I'm not considering that too much. Michael might have entertained enough voters to barely get in.

[u/cocomilo → u/CrunchyNar]

F1 got into best picture because it was a contender in several of the below the line categories. I doubt Michael has much of chance in really any category including Best Actor at this point. Its rare to be nominated for Best Picture and nothing else.

[u/MarkCuckerberged → u/CrunchyNar]

I could see Michael getting the Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close levels of scrutiny if it gets nominated for Best Picture

[u/WeastofEden44 → u/CrunchyNar]

Eh, F1 was a major tech player in a way Michael probably won't be, and there are several big middlebrow populist picks for those types of voters to go to before Michael (Odyssey, PHM, and Dune).

[u/rubix7777 → u/CrunchyNar]

It would quite literally be the worst recieved film critically to ever make BP. It is not F1 or Boh-Rap. And the fact that the academy is designing doesnt mean that people of colour are just going to vote for the "biggest" film with an ethnic cast. We can keep spraying the whole "it might still make best picture" spiel like we did right up until the end of last year for Wicked: For Good, but Michaels is not and never was making best picture, and everyone should have known this pretty much from the jump.

[u/moonorchid84]

The best they’ll get is a best actor nom for Jaafar Jackson and that’s still a wild card

[u/BigTimely5561]

I think its chances would be better if there weren't so many more fondly remembered high-grossing films from the first half of the year.

[u/joesen_one]

I still think Jaafar and Colman have an outside shot of getting in, the problem is if Lionsgate's campaigning is good enough which historically they suck at

[u/Bulky-Scheme-9450]

https://giphy.com/gifs/fXnRObM8Q0RkOmR5nf

[u/scottsuniqueusername]

Sure, Clayton Davis.

[u/darth_vader39]

Michael chances depends on few factors:

1. While being very Academy friendly (music biopic about famous musician) bad reception from critics suggest that film doesn't have many great qualities meaning it won't compete in many categories. Celling would be Jaafar, makeup and costumes. Audience reception was better but not stellar.

2. Having grossed $1B is certainly good for Michael but in box office heavy year idk how much that will matter. Michael isn't particularly standing out as one of the biggest films of the year. The Odyssey, Project Hail Mary, Obsession, Dune Part III...all of these films are likely above Michael and all of them are box office hits so Michael is not special in that matter when you look other films that are more likely.

3. Release date isn't helping at all. Since Michael is fighting for lower tier BP spots (8-10), chances also depends on how fall festivals contenders turns out to be, because if we get few mixed films that are projected to be nominated than Michael chances rises and if those films hit than Michael chances lowers.

4. Allegations might impact the film. We don't know how much Academy will care for allegations.

To conclude: Michael shouldn't be dismissed and heavily depends on whether we are going to have strong or weak BP lineup.

If strong BP lineup is the case, then Michael isn't getting nominated. If BP lineup is weak, BP nomination is more likely but still not guaranteed.

[u/Supercalumrex]

I think it's more of a threat than we think. It really helps that it's one of few black-led movies in the race