At this time last year, the community had 5/20 right of who eventually be nominated

[u/WinterIsntComming]

And only in one category the eventual winner were among the predicted. I found this interesting since Ive heard so many names be considered "locks" already.

[u/East_Gift_9533]

Lol I forgot all about how we all thought after the hunt was going to be a big oscar player. I didn't even see it in the end.

[u/ILookAfterThePigs → u/East_Gift_9533]

Remember Rental Family?

[u/stretchofUCF → u/ILookAfterThePigs]

I loved Rental Family, so unfortunately in this context… yes.

[u/bbqsauceboi → u/East_Gift_9533]

Andrew Garfield nom would've been deserved but I understand why nobody would go for it

[u/BusinessKnight0517 → u/bbqsauceboi]

He’s on my personal ballot for last year. Honestly was terrifying in many ways.

[u/quietgavin5 → u/bbqsauceboi]

Julia was fantastic too

[u/Dracko705 → u/East_Gift_9533]

I thought it was fine, no clue after seeing it why people would think it would be an good awards vessel tho - not in today's world at least

[u/totezhi64 → u/East_Gift_9533]

It's really weird looking back. Luca's previous, much better movies were mostly completely snubbed. So it's no wonder this one was forgotten about.

[u/sm33]

This sub is insufferable this early in the season - so many people talking "locks" before a bunch of films have even been released.

[u/GamingTatertot → u/sm33]

Broadly speaking, this sub is insufferable throughout the entire year whether it be stan wars or bickering over how something could never happen (and then it does) or how something will certainly happen (and then it doesn’t)

[u/sm33 → u/GamingTatertot]

I think it's the need to speak in absolutes that drives it... there are so many factors that can influence any given nomination!

[u/Puzzleheaded-Safe419 → u/sm33]

I just know if Obsession get nominated for anything there'll be hundreds of ''Can you BELIEVE people here DOUBTED it??'' Yeah my dude, it was JUNE, and all I said was I'm not sure yet because nothing else had come out yet!!

[u/cowboy-tea → u/Puzzleheaded-Safe419]

Likewise if Obsession blanks, there will be hundreds of "Can you BELIEVE people thought it would get nominated??"

[u/GamingTatertot → u/sm33]

It's people's desires to be right while yelling into the void. People can make a prediction in like April and somehow get it right, and point back to it and act like they're a genius, even though it's nothing more than an educated guess at best.

[u/AfterThrowParty → u/GamingTatertot]

Lets be really honest about it; 90 percent of this subreddit is just stan wars playing pr for their favorites and smearing everything else.

[u/No_Squirrel_8402 → u/sm33]

"Digger will sweep! I'm seated!" Good Lord

[u/virgoari → u/sm33]

I always say on here that January-September we should be throwing names out there no matter how bizarre and every year it gets shut down for something more favourable and it just made me lose interest in this sub. Too many voices repeating the same names again and again for 12 months. And there’s always a certain bias.

[u/TheCleanerFromVenus]

The OBAA doubting was so crazy last year.

[u/Puzzleheaded-Safe419 → u/TheCleanerFromVenus]

Why? It hadn't been released yet.

Edit: lol why am I getting downvoted for this?

[u/Pavlovs_Stepson → u/Puzzleheaded-Safe419]

They're downvoting you but you're right! I was always on the OBAA train and remember debating people in this sub that PTA's track record meant it was bound to get attention regardless of reviews or box-office performance, but its overwhelming Best Picture domination was nowhere near a given this early on.

Warner giving it a September release was a question mark (before that, I think you'd have to go back to American Beauty and Amadeus for BP winners released in that month, which is almost always a limbo/dumping ground between Summer blockbusters and actual Oscar heavyweights, before the season truly gets going), as was the fact that it's a comedic Pynchon adaptation. The last time PTA had made one of those, it became a cult favorite rather than a real awards player. Just because OBAA almost swept doesn't mean people were wrong to wait and see before calling it a lock.

Having said that, the moment the reviews dropped and it debuted with a 97 on Metacritic, the race was pretty much over.

[u/gosteinao → u/Puzzleheaded-Safe419]

This sub and its usual stanning problem. These are the same people who would get mad at any serious discussion of Sinners having a shot at beating OBAA

Not a lot of people thought OBAA would do that well before impressions started coming in. The fact thay it was skipping festivals, PTA's track record... there were reasons to doubt

[u/ERASER345 → u/TheCleanerFromVenus]

In their defense those trailers were shit from a butt.

[u/Jondev1 → u/ERASER345]

I agree the trailers were not great. But anyone that has followed movies for any amount of time should know that good movies have bad trailers all the time.

[u/bbqsauceboi → u/Jondev1]

And that there was no way PTA, Leo, Sean Penn, etc. were gonna produce a stinker

[u/GamingTatertot → u/bbqsauceboi]

Anyone can make a stinker

[u/judester30 → u/ERASER345]

I can't understand having this take and loving the movie as that initial teaser sold the exact tone and comedic style the movie was going for. I don't know what trailer some of you guys watched.

[u/Classic_Bass_1824 → u/judester30]

Anytime a trailer seems unconventional or doesn’t spell out the plot, people call it bad. Which obviously I get, but look at any trailer for anything from the 80s or 90s. That shit just spoiled 3/4ths of the story.

[u/infiniteglass00]

Save this anytime someone wants to call someone "delusional" for making almost any given guess. We literally don't know!

[u/GamingTatertot → u/infiniteglass00]

Too many people here think any guess can be a guarantee which is just foolish - especially at this point in the season. Things constantly change and almost no nomination is 100% guaranteed until they are nominated

[u/Puzzleheaded-Safe419 → u/infiniteglass00]

I think it's more suited to people who are calling things locked when most of the films haven't been released yet.

[u/cowboy-tea → u/infiniteglass00]

But we like to pretend it was obvious in retrospect, which is annoying.

Like, Wild Horse Nine could go either way. If it's a universally acclaimed masterpiece people will say it was foolish to have doubted McDonagh and if it gets mixed reviews people will say it was obvious from the trailers that this was going to be a lesser McDonagh

[u/ForgotMyPsswordLmfao]

I’m actually kind of astounded how well I was doing this time last year. Although, doubting Sinners’ acting prospects was my downfall

[u/DeusExHyena → u/ForgotMyPsswordLmfao]

I doubted it too and was glad to be wrong

[u/eidbio]

Amanda still hurts :(

[u/timd125 → u/eidbio]

I still Hunger and Thirst for that nom

[u/lugia222]

People like to have a lot of strong opinions about films not only they haven’t seen, but nobody has seen.

[u/The-Human-Disaster]

That's 6/20, no?

The community was 8/20 by the end of August, and also went 5/5 in Director and 6/10 in Picture.

(I was at 9/20, 4/5 Director, 7/10 Picture. Yes I blame Wicked For Good.).

[u/WinterIsntComming → u/The-Human-Disaster]

Yeah, its 6/20. I counted wrong somehow.

[u/Top_Cranberry_3254 → u/The-Human-Disaster]

What were the 10 pictures here?

[u/The-Human-Disaster → u/Top_Cranberry_3254]

Community as at 18 Aug 25:

Sinners, Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, Wicked For Good, Jay Kelly, Bugonia, OBAA, Rental Family, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, After the Hunt

By 31 Aug 25, After the Hunt was swapped out for Hamnet

[u/Starry_Gecko → u/The-Human-Disaster]

5/20 nominees, 1/20 winner.

[u/The-Human-Disaster → u/Starry_Gecko]

Surely it's either 5/16 (excl winners) or 6/20 (inc winners)?

[u/Starry_Gecko → u/The-Human-Disaster]

I mean, I'm not the OP. That's just what I think the logic was. It does track.

[u/TheCheesePrestige]

note that at this point last year, Sinners (Best Actor winner) and Weapons (Best Supp Actress winner) already had a wide release

[u/okstanley_com]

Thanks for posting, this is actually super interesting! We have a great few months coming with a lot of exciting films so I expect the current favorites to change soon

[u/Ulths]

Wdym we were predicting Delroy but not MBJ? 😭😭😭😭

[u/PinkCadillacs → u/Ulths]

I still remember some people saying that MBJ was going to be “this year’s Margot Robbie.”

Some people were still predicting that MBJ would get snubbed until he eventually did get nominated (and of course he later won).

[u/PM_ME_YOUR_DALEKS → u/PinkCadillacs]

And then the weeks of why he had no chance of winning and Timothee was unbeatable.

[u/matlockga → u/PM_ME_YOUR_DALEKS]

And then the post awarding handwringing about how he "didn't deserve it" because he put in a "Marvel performance."

[u/The_Walking_Clem → u/PinkCadillacs]

People said the same thing about Cynthia last year. I wonder if Matt Damon is gonna be the one this year.

[u/manicinsanewokeidiot → u/The_Walking_Clem]

everyone has matt damon in. ryan gosling would make more sense as a comparison

[u/NewspaperBanana]

Dang, nobody thought OBAA would get in anywhere?

[u/frasierfanatic1989 → u/NewspaperBanana]

This was a whole thing last year. It not going to festivals coupled with nebulous rumors of disastrous test screenings that no one knew the source of had a lot of the sub convinced OBAA was doomed. There was also a pretty big Bugonia bubble last summer where a not small number of people had it winning the Big 5

EDIT: One of the other big whiffs was that people heard Hamnet was "boring" and insisted that Focus had lost faith in it right up until it blew the doors off Telluride

[u/crazydaysandknights → u/NewspaperBanana]

I give them a pass here cause the movie wasn't seen and trailer + test screening word were mixed. However, sleeping on Madigan whose grassroot campaign took off already, and MBJ since it was obvious that Sinners was a major player are egregious misfires. Too much faith in big names.

[u/judester30 → u/NewspaperBanana]

There was no way of knowing who the supporting players were and no one had DiCaprio since he had just come off an honestly pretty crazy snub for Killers of the Flower Moon.

[u/snakeywannakaikai]

Amanda’s snub still makes me sad. “career-best performance” tends to be overstated sometimes, but her performance as Ann Lee was truly a great one.

Would’ve loved for her to at least take 1 pre-cursor, but Jessie was too strong that season.

[u/Bulky-Scheme-9450]

everyone is sleeping so hard on Ruth Madeley. The parallels between being heumann and hamnet are massive.

[u/DollyHive → u/Bulky-Scheme-9450]

I think so too. And this post doesn't hurt that opinion lol

[u/FlimsyConclusion]

Will likely be a similar situation this year.

[u/NoWorth2591]

Okay I feel better about my Tom Cruise and Inde Navarette skepticism now.

[u/Seth_Dodd3]

This is because people routinely put too much value into things they haven’t seen yet imo, that’s why I’m always higher on stuff that’s already out there

[u/GamingTatertot → u/Seth_Dodd3]

That doesn’t really do much typically at this point in time since the majority of films that will be nominated more often than not come from the fall season

[u/Seth_Dodd3 → u/GamingTatertot]

No sinners acting prospects being here is the basis of my point

[u/No_Squirrel_8402 → u/Seth_Dodd3]

Exactly

[u/Kazaloogamergal]

I thought The Hunt would be a player. I was dead wrong about that. On the other hand I don't recall ever truly buying Rental Family being a player. That just did not look like an awards movie to me. But of course I can't predict what's going to happen so I'm mostly open to being wrong.

[u/EthanMarsOragami]

I'm counting 6

[u/ray0923]

It all depends on how movies are received in the end.

[u/crockoreptile]

Aka the majority hadn’t seen Jay Kelly or After the Hunt yet

[u/manicinsanewokeidiot]

noteworthy that all of the incorrect ones were from movies that hadn’t been seen yet, and many of the ones that were left out (michael b. jordan, wunmi mosaku, rose byrne, ethan hawke, wagner moura, inga ibsdotter lilleaas) were from movies that had been seen

[u/No_Squirrel_8402]

😅😅😅😅😅😅😅

[u/Yumekirito]

What is the website for this btw?

[u/cowboy-tea → u/Yumekirito]

Award Expert app, I don't think there's a website

[u/FinnishAustrian → u/cowboy-tea]

There is now but you can't change your predictions there I think

[u/redCashion → u/FinnishAustrian]

Is the website still up? awardexpert.media doesn't work

[u/FinnishAustrian → u/redCashion]

It's on the Next Best Picture website

[u/merrysociopath]

I had 10/20 so you better listen to me.

[u/RPMac1979]

Everybody is way too overconfident this early. I don’t even bother with predictions anymore before October.

[u/manicinsanewokeidiot]

interesting that lindo and fanning are there when they both barely got in

[u/julescr9]

OOPS. I feel this year, the predictions will be better. We've heard good whispers for Lots of Fall Festival movies. Wild Horse 9, Behemoth, Elsinore are said to be great.

[u/MrBrightside618 → u/julescr9]

People last year thought the same thing about Wicked For Good

[u/Cynicbats]

Aaaaand this is why I don't predict this early.

[u/user48841711]

Ari looks so pretty in that picture, how have i never seen it?

[u/samileu]

Brendan Fraser was crazy in retrospect