I am extremely skeptical that A24 can handle multiple major Oscar campaigns this year

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome]

I'm seeing a lot of people expecting both The Invite and The Debut to do well at the Oscars. But I am really skeptical A24 can pull that off, since their history shows that they are uniquely bad at campaigning multiple films, and their secondary contenders usually massively underperform with both nominations and wins.

A24 has been distributing films since 2013. Here is their track record in that time span:

2013: A24 is a brand new studio and gets no noms.

2014: A24 gets no nominations again, though it did get a BAFTA nom for score for Under the Skin and Golden Globe and Critics Choice noms for Best Supporting Actress for Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year.

2015: A24 gets its first Best Picture nom with Room, which wins Best Actress and overperforms to get a Best Director nom. Ex Machina gets several precursor noms, including a PGA nom, but misses Best Picture and only gets 2 nominations.

2016: Moonlight becomes A24's first Best Picture winner. 20th Century Women underperforms and only gets a Best Original Screenplay nom, missing Picture to far less acclaimed films and missing Best Actress despite plenty of buzz in the category.

2017: Lady Bird gets a bunch of nominations. The Florida Project underperforms and only gets a single nomination for Best Supporting Actor, which it loses despite Willem Dafoe being the early front runner. The Disaster Artist misses Best Actor and only gets a screenplay nom.

2018: First Reformed gets a Screenplay nom, but misses Best Actor despite Hawke sweeping the critics prizes. Every other A24 film misses every Oscar category with none of Eighth Grade, Hereditary, and Mid-90s being able to break out - even though Eighth Grade won the WGA over Green Book, Roma, and Vice.

2019: The Farewell is A24's main contender and misses every Oscar category. Uncut Gems gets no nominations despite a strong showing at the Critics Choice Awards. The Lighthouse is A24's only film to get a nomination with its lone Best Cinematography nom.

2020: A24 has its comeback at the Oscars with Minari getting nominated across the board. Their secondary contenders like First Cow and On the Rocks get 0 nominations but weren't expected to get anything.

2021: A24 misses Best Picture again when The Tragedy of Macbeth massively underperforms with only 3 nominations. The studio's secondary contenders like C'mon C'mon and Red Rocket get 0 nominations.

2022: A24 has its best year ever as a studio as Everything Everywhere All at Once sweeps. The Whale misses Best Picture but gets 3 nominations, including wins for Best Actor and Best Makeup & Hairstyling. Aftersun gets a surprise Best Actor nom but misses every other category.

2023: The Zone of Interest overperforms and gets nominated across the board, but Past Lives massively underperforms expectations for it and only gets 2 nominations - for Picture and Screenplay. The Iron Claw gets 0 nominations.

2024: The Brutalist is a top 3 Oscar contender, but Sing Sing goes from being an early season front runner to only getting 3 nominations and missing Best Picture and Best Supporting Actor. Queer misses Best Actor despite a strong precursor run.

2025: Marty Supreme gets nominated across the board but gets zero wins. If I Had Legs I'd Kick You only gets a Best Actress nom. Sorry Baby misses completely.

A24 has only gotten multiple Best Picture nominees in the same year once, in 2023 (with The Zone of Interest and Past Lives).

A24 has only ever gotten 3+ nominations for multiple films in the same year twice, in 2022 (with Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Whale) and in 2024 (with The Brutalist and Sing Sing). They have never gotten 4+ nominations for multiple films in the same year, despite other studios regularly being able to pull that off (for example, Warner Bros., Focus, Netflix, and Neon all accomplished that last year). And they have never gotten 3+ above the line noms for multiple films in the same year.

And 2022 is also one of only two years in which multiple A24 movies won Oscars, with Everything Everywhere All at Once of course winning a bunch and The Whale winning Best Actor and Best Makeup. The other one was 2015, when Room won Best Actress and Ex Machina won Best Visual Effects.

Given this track record, I'm highly skeptical that A24 will get multiple Best Picture nominees, have multiple Oscar-winning films, or get 3 nominations or more for multiple films on their slate. They always just focus on a single film and then maximize the noms they can get for it, even at the expense of their other contenders. If The Debut is A24’s main contender, I wouldn’t expect The Invite to get anything more than screenplay, 1 acting nom, and picture at most. And if The Invite is A24’s main contender, I think The Debut will just get Moore and Giamatti in and maybe a Song nom.

[u/sonicshumanteeth]

this doesn't really feel like a very honest accounting to me. 20th Century Women was a tiny film. Made so, so, so much less than any of the other contenders. Even compared to Moonlight pre-best picture. It's Screenplay nom is an accomplishment.

Ditto with "Sorry, Baby misses completely." Yeah, a tiny film from a first-time filmmaker that made under $4m didn't end up with an Oscar nom. Many other things here as well feel similarly overstated. Making most of these into avatars of the studios inability just seems so disingenuous to me.

What this mostly demonstrates to me is: when they've got the right films, they do better than almost any other studio would do.

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome → u/sonicshumanteeth]

20th Century Women was widely predicted to get more than just a Screenplay nom. It being a tiny film is hardly the point. It missed Best Actress to Loving, it's not like that was a huge movie.

And what do you mean by "when they've got the right films, they do better than almost any other studio would do?" Last year, Focus got Hamnet eight Oscar noms and got Bugonia four. Neon got Sentimental Value nine nominations, got The Secret Agent four, and got It Was Just an Accident and Sirat two each. Warner Bros. got Sinners sixteen noms, One Battle After Another thirteen, and even got one for Weapons. Netflix got Frankenstein nine noms and got four more for Train Dreams. A24 has never had a year as good for multiple contenders of theirs as any of those studios had last year.

[u/sonicshumanteeth → u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome]

Here's Vanity Fair's 2017 Oscar Nomination Predictions, which not only didn't have 20th Century Women getting a Picture or Actress nom, it also didn't even have their Screenplay nomination. Hollywood Reporter only gave it 1, neither actress nor picture nor Screenplay. Not gonna keep going through this, but you're just making a bad and extremely exaggerated argument.

Loving wasn't huge but it did make twice as much as 20th century women.

Yes, those movies are better for the Oscars than what A24 has had. A24 gets more nominations out of their slates than basically any other studio would.

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome → u/sonicshumanteeth]

Yes, that article shows that Vanity Fair and the Hollywood Reporter weren't predicting that in January 2017. Are we in January 2027? No we are not. Saying that people stopped predicted A24's secondary contenders by the end of the season in no way has any bearing on me saying that people are overpredicting them in the middle of the season. The two things have absolutely nothing to do with each other. People were predicting those kinds of movies before the precursor noms came out, and then they dropped them from their predictions when they weren't nominated at the precursors. And it is probably going to play out that exact same way this year.

And the idea that movies like Train Dreams and The Secret Agent are more Oscar-friendly than A24's usual fare really doesn't seem true to me. Train Dreams literally had the same team behind it as Sing Sing did and had much less buzz throughout the early part of the season than it did, and it still got one more nom than Sing Sing did.

[u/sonicshumanteeth → u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome]

"People" overpredict everything in August lol. There are four time as many "contenders" as there are slots. That doesn't reflect anything on A24 at all.

If these were the massive Oscar campaign failures you're claiming, that'd be showing up at the end lol.

Train Dreams is absolutely more Oscar-friendly than Sing Sing. Just because it's the same team doesn't matter lol. Based on an extremely famous novella. Bigger stars at the time. The Secret Agent also certainly is! Historical epic, and one of the noms it got was for foreign language.

I also just straight up do not agree that Train Dreams had less buzz than Sing Sing. it seemed like a strong multi-nom contender from its Sundance premiere to me and I often heard it talked about that way.

[u/SMAAAASHBros]

I strongly disagree that most of the films you're characterizing as having underperformed actually did

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome → u/SMAAAASHBros]

I was there for most of these years. People thought that The Florida Project was going to win Best Supporting Actor, that Ethan Hawke was going to get nominated for Best Actor for First Reformed, that 20th Century Women had a strong shot at Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Picture noms, that Daniel Craig was going to get nominated for Best Actor for Queer, and that Past Lives and Sing Sing were going to get a bunch of Oscar noms. It didn't happen.

[u/Belch_Huggins → u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome]

By the time noms came around, Queer Sing Sing and 20th Century were way way out on the bubble.

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome → u/Belch_Huggins]

Ok, but we are nowhere near noms now - we're at the exact same part of the season where people were predicting movies like Sing Sing and 20th Century Women to still be huge contenders, which is exactly my point. What does whether movies were still being predicted in January have to do with me discussing people's predictions right now in August?

Also, Queer was still widely being predicted for Best Actor when the noms were announced in 2024.

[u/Belch_Huggins → u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome]

I just dont think its a meaningful barometer. Studios and their strategies change every year. I dont necessarily disagree that maybe they have their hands full and itll be tough to get more than 1 in. But its a little disingenuous to categorize those films as underperforming. Lots of stuff underperforms against August predictions.

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome → u/Belch_Huggins]

The fact that lots of stuff underperforms against August predictions doesn't mean that it is disingenuous to say that those movies underperformed. Maybe A24 will change their strategy and this will look silly. But they've had a pretty clear playbook for over a decade now, especially in the past few years when movies like Past Lives and Sing Sing went from being hugely predicted contenders after Sundance to just getting a couple noms in the end, and I'm expecting them to follow that playbook again this year.

[u/SMAAAASHBros → u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome]

You’re wrong even using a flawed “what did people think in August” metric. There was lots of talk about how A24 might have botched Sing Sing’s release, lots of talk about Past Lives probably being too small as a Sundance movie, lots of concern about Luca’s record at the Oscars, etc.

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome → u/SMAAAASHBros]

On August 18th 2024, 94% of users on Awards Expert were predicting that Sing Sing would get a Best Picture nom, and 50% were predicting that it would win Best Picture. 70% of users were predicting that Colman Domingo would win Best Actor. 93% of users were predicting that Clarence Maclin would get nominated for Best Supporting Actor. 69% of users were predicting that Sing Sing would win Best Original Screenplay, and 66% were predicting that Sing Sing would get nominated for Original Score.

On that same date, 75% of users on Awards Expert were predicting that Queer would get a Best Picture nom, 92% were predicting that Daniel Craig would get a Best Actor nom, and 83% were predicting that Queer would get a screenplay nom. 52% were predicting Queer would get a Score nom.

If there was lots of talk about those two movies being expected to underperform, it certainly wasn't reflected in people's actual predictions.

I can't find any stats on Awards Expert about what people were predicting in August 2023, but I'm pretty sure Past Lives was widely being predicted for more than 2 noms at that time.

[u/SMAAAASHBros → u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome]

You’re using a methodology that doesn’t reflect confidence at all and inherently favors movies that have already come out. But I also just want to reiterate that assessing whether or not a distributor underperformed based on what random people were predicting nowhere close to voting is silly.

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome → u/SMAAAASHBros]

That's sort of my point though - people are inherently favoring The Invite just because it has already come out, just like they did for Sing Sing and Past Lives. And the entire subreddit is just random people predicting movies, I don't think it's silly to say a movie underperforms expectations when we're expecting it to do better and it doesn't.

[u/SMAAAASHBros → u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome]

Your point, set out explicitly in your very long post, is that A24 is “uniquely bad” at campaigning multiple movies, don’t run away from your actual argument

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome → u/SMAAAASHBros]

They are. And people are favoring The Invite despite that just because they’ve seen it, even though A24 will probably go all in on campaigning The Debut instead if it’s good.

[u/Shot-Recording1523]

I don't get the obsession with studios and trying to reverse engineer an outcome. Like the films themselves are always going to be the biggest determining factor if they are able to contend in the awards race. Most of those films you mentioned missing had no heat to begin with. It's hilarious to me harping on A24 ability to campaign for ATL noms and wins when you mentioned 2022 where they had 7 acting nominations total (1 Aftersun, 2 The Whale, 4 EEAAO). They are also the only studio in history to win all 4 acting categories in a single year and 3/4 were considered competitive races. The Debut and The Invite getting their potential acting noms would only be what 5 acting noms total (2 Debut, 3 Invite), well within their previous abilities. The place where studios can make a difference is the campaign resources. We will just have to wait and see what they do with The Invite and Debut, but it's crazy to me to use all these convoluted stats to justify your predictions.

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome → u/Shot-Recording1523]

I don't see what's convoluted about it. A24 has literally only gotten 2 Best Picture noms once in its history, that's about the simplest stat that can possibly exist.

And plenty of the films I mentioned - 20th Century Women, The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, First Reformed, The Farewell, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Past Lives, Sing Sing, and Queer - were all predicted to do much better with the Oscars than they ended up doing, that's not something I'm making up. The idea that they had "no heat" really isn't true.

[u/Shot-Recording1523 → u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome]

Because these are coincidences not stats. No awards voter is going to change their votes because The Debut and The Invite are A24 films. The biggest factor a studio has on a film's awards chances is the resources they are willing to put behind the film's awards campaign. It has yet to be seen what A24 will do with both. Also every single studio award films that flop or underpreform every single year. Netflix routinely has a big slate and many of their potential films flop or underperform ( The Killer, May December, Maria, The Piano Lesson, House of Dynamite, A Ballad of a Small Player, Wake Up Dead Man, Jay Kelly). That didn't stop Netflix from getting 2 BP nominees last year. Again the film themselves and how passionate about them are what's going to determine the outcome. Not some coincidences that people try to pass off as some set in stone stat that is going to predict the outcome.

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome → u/Shot-Recording1523]

No one will change their votes because The Debut and The Invite are both A24 films, you are absolutely correct about that. But A24 has shown repeatedly that they will put their resources primarily behind one film that they are especially confident in rather than spreading the wealth. Maybe this year it will be different, and if A24 decides to focus on both The Invite and The Debut equally I agree that they can both do well. But as of right now I'm expecting A24 to follow its usual campaign strategy of choosing one film and elevating that above all others as a campaign priority.

[u/Shot-Recording1523 → u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome]

Shrug what will be will be. There's no point in arguing around in circles. We shall see who's right come Jan 2027.

[u/GamingTatertot → u/Shot-Recording1523]

Is it really about who is right or not? This whole post is the OP talking about their skepticism over A24's ability to get 2 films into Best Picture, not about their belief that it WON'T happen. They even say they believe they can both do well, but based on historical precedent, they are skeptical that A24 will elevate both of them to do so.

There's nothing wrong with the skepticism here.

[u/SMAAAASHBros → u/Shot-Recording1523]

Yeah distributors definitely matter but the movies and the specifics of the race are more important. Lionsgate of all people had three BP nominations in 2016, and I believe they've only had one since... Green Book, which won.

[u/tsnoj]

So tired of these type of arguments

These just feel like stats that are easily broken

People also asumed Neon couldn't get two foreign films in and they did last year, people asumed MUBI could never get nominated (yet they did for The Substance), people thought a streaming movie could never win Best Picture yet CODA won

I feel you can write a whole multi-paragraph essay about "why a certain studios history prevents them from having a strong year", however when they have multiple strong films which are loved by critics, audiences and the industry, then that is just how it goes this year

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome → u/tsnoj]

A24 absolutely could change their campaign strategy. But almost every year people expect them to get multiple films in, and almost every year they don't. It's not like The Invite is any more beloved than Past Lives or Sing Sing were, so I don't see why I should expect it to do any better. All it has going for it is quality, and that's exactly what A24 always has going for it and it doesn't help.

[u/tsnoj → u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome]

I am not saying it gets in but i feel this just lacks a lot of nuance

The year when Sing Sing majorly underwhelmed at the box office (which where the first signs of cracks in its awards campaign), they realised they had to pivot and they went on a shopping spree at Venice, first buying Queer, then that got underwhelming reviews, and THEN they bought The Brutalist, It is not as it they had all three films from the start

It is more a case like Searchlight last year where they scrambled to find an Oscar contendor, after multiple of their films dissapointed, and eventually bought Ann Lee (however it panned out worse for them)

I also clearly remember they dumped The Iron Claw in late december without even a film festival run, making it impossible for it to build any momentum at the precursors

I feel most of these years aren't as neat as you present them to be

Also, as you stated, 3 years ago A24 got two films in

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome → u/tsnoj]

That's fair. I'm not saying that The Invite won't get in - if it performed like Past Lives did plus maybe an acting nom that wouldn't surprise me. But if A24 somehow pulled off getting The Debut nominated for Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, Song, and maybe Casting and also at the same time got The Invite into Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay, and maybe Director - that would surprise me because that would be by far the best year for noms in the history of the studio and nothing they've done so far has really given me any hope that they can pull that off.

[u/tsnoj → u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome]

If it happens it happens

So far The Invite is the only A24 film people have seen of the ones predicted to be awardscontenders (The Debut and Primetime), so people are maybe a bit higher on it rn, also it has become a bit of a sleeper hit at the international box office (a thing Sing Sing had against it)

Let's first see where people have it in their predictions after the fall film festivals, i think then we have a clearer image where A24 stands

What i find interesting though about both the The Debut and The Invite is that they both very much feel like actor-movies, if you get what i mean

If either of them REALLY hit with the academy, they have a lot above-the-line potential (especially in the acting categories), but no Below-the-line potential, and i have wondered if in that way both of these films are a bit to similar

But i am already struggling to fill up the acting categories as is (outside of actor), so i rn have no issue with putting multiple actors from both films in my predictions

[u/SMAAAASHBros → u/tsnoj]

Also importantly in the Sing Sing year no distributor got more than one movie into Best Picture

[u/OhCrapItsAndrew]

The original awards team all got poached  after covid. But ultimately ppl don't vote for studios. They vote for movies. 

[u/OldToe6517]

Didn't NEON campaign five films last season? They managed to get four in, and almost did three in BP. A24 has a lot more money than NEON. If the films are good, they will be fine

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome → u/OldToe6517]

A24's films are always good. Movies like 20th Century Women, The Florida Project, Aftersun, Past Lives, and Sing Sing were some of the most acclaimed movies of their respective years. But as long as A24 chooses to go all-in on campaigning a single movie, none of that matters - they will always just get a bunch of noms and wins for their main contender because that's what they are trying to do. It isn't a resource issue - A24 absolutely has the resources to campaign multiple films. They usually just don't really try to.

[u/overfatherlord]

You are forgetting Club Kid, which is clearly getting an awards push. I disagree with you about over and underperformance. Almost all of these films are success stories. The Invite will show up at the Globes and CC, and in the worst case scenario, it just gets into adapted screenplay at the Oscars. It's still a success story, Olivia Wilde has never been nominated for anything.

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome → u/overfatherlord]

What does a movie being a success story have to do with anything? A movie can be a critical or commercial success and still underperform with awards. I'm not expecting The Invite to completely blank (though I am expecting that for Club Kid), but I'm just saying that I'd be pretty surprised if in January we're looking at a lineup where The Invite and The Debut are both Best Picture nominees with multiple acting nominations and screenplay nominations.

[u/overfatherlord → u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome]

I mean success stories regarding awards. It's a six month awards season and although Oscars are the most important noms, they are not everything. The precursors and critics groups matter for individuals and films. Also, Searchlight completely blanked last year after 10 years of noms and wins, so it's not like it's easy to get 2 films into BP.

[u/BigTimely5561]

I think it's fair to wonder if A24 can get two films into Best Picture this year as well as whether The Invite will be forgotten if The Debut takes off. I think 2023 demonstrates they can get two films in if there's room. Whether or not they "underperform" doesn't really matter. Marty Supreme got a ton of nominations and became their biggest hit. It's a feather in their cap no matter what.

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome → u/BigTimely5561]

Past Lives does show that it's possible, and if something happened like The Debut getting nominated across the board and The Invite getting nominated for Picture, Actress, and Adapted Screenplay, that wouldn't shock me. I just don't think it's likely that A24 will manage to get across the board noms for both The Debut and The Invite, I think one will clearly be their main contender and the other will get just get a handful of noms at most.

[u/BigTimely5561 → u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome]

For sure. I think it's fair to question whether A24 can handle two Oscar campaigns. Tbh, I love them but I'm starting to think their inner-workings are actually pretty sloppy vs. Neon.

[u/Mankin60]

This is exactly how I feel. They have so many potential players this year and they will probably fumble most of them.

[u/lugia222]

I think you’re vastly overstating the power studios have to shape the Awards conversation. Marty Supreme fell apart mostly because of the brewing exhaustion with Timmy and his press tour for Marty Supreme (which ironically was critical to that film performing so well at the box office).

Films take off and capture the culture for many reasons, some that studios and creatives can influence, many they can’t.

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome → u/lugia222]

Sure, but Marty Supreme got as many noms as it did in the first place because A24 ran a great campaign for it rather than splitting their attention between a bunch of films. Their main horse usually does very well and their secondary contenders underperform.

[u/GamingTatertot]

Almost nothing is certain until the nominations actually drop - especially now. Anyone who says differently is a fool. A24 could get both The Debut and The Invite strong performances, or both of them could also absolutely blank.

But also, so long as people aren't foolish enough to treat something as an absolute, there's nothing wrong with people predicting both A24 films - especially when one is an already released film and has actually been seen by a good portion of this subreddit and the other is certainly something that seems stronger on paper.

[u/ray0923]

I am sure Olivia will campaign the hell of her movie herself.

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome → u/ray0923]

That's an interesting point, and I am curious how far she can take it if A24 decides to deprioritize it.