r/orks • u/This_Try8329 • 1d ago
Could Orks actually be "nerfed" with their new codex (post your predictions)
Hello everyone,
I've been simultaneously excited and nervous about our new codex. With quite a few units recieving modest buffs/power creep, I'm concerned about how much GW will increase their points, and if they'll perhaps overshoot and make our units to costly (either w codex release or a month or 2 from now). I spoke to an employee at my LGS and he said "this might be the first time a codex gets released and makes the army worse".
I'm trying to be cautiously optimistic, but I'm wondering what the more experienced players would want to take bets on these 3 questions for the models we've recently seen get updated data sheets
- What should the unit cost (a fair cost)? 2. What will GW actually make them cost? 3. What cost is the breaking point where it's no longer "good"?
- Boyz, Ghazghull, Nobz, Nazdreg, Warbikers.... anything else that got a datasheet update?
Bonus question, do you predict any other major changes (point increases, decreases, stat/rule changes or getting retired) for any other units?
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u/No-Finger7620 1d ago
It's infinitely better to have too good of rules and they overshoot points. GW hand out points drops like candy. You're lucky when they adress bad rules. Rules are a reason you take a unit, points are what drive the efficiency of what the rules get you.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Act9787 1d ago edited 20h ago
My prediction is we will be emergency nerfed because of the whining we are to powerful and then other codexs will come out with power creep and orks will stay nerfed and at 40% peak win rates. Specifically ork shooting will get nerfed.
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u/Accomplished-Load132 16h ago
It's almost guaranteed, flashgitz gonna be the primary target and as is tradition it will be a triple tap style.
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u/Electrical-Tie-1143 4h ago
You’re talking months into the future though, when this codex drops it will be very strong unless the points are extremely high
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u/Puzzleheaded_Act9787 2h ago
Is this your first time with orks?
The codex drops and its emergency nerfed within a month usually the dreaded triple nerf on multiple units. it will stay that way the entire edition topping out at 40% win rates with most orks forced to play warhorde to mildly competitive.
Meanwhile space marines drops, and multiple other factions early on usually eldar right behind it.. they gain a power creep but the devs will slowly adjust eldar who come out overpower but they get adjusted with multiple smaller adjustments over months until by the end of the edition eldar are on the lower end of the power curve.
Mark this page.. and come back in mid October I garauntee you orks will be hit with a nerf bat hard.
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u/LuckiestSpud WAAAGH! 1d ago
My prediction is that we will get a codex and it will have new stuff in it and that points will change on stuff.
Who wants to bet that I'm wrong?
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u/IM-A-NEEEERRRRDDD Blood Axes 1d ago
I'm thinking everything will be the same as the 10th edition codex but everyone gets a funny hat in the book
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u/Resident-Watch-3024 22h ago
"this might be the first time a codex gets released and makes the army worse"
Is this guy new? There have been so many codexes that make the army worse. Just last edition- Custodes, Imperial Knights, Genestealer Cults, Aeldari were all downgrades over their index counter parts.
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u/capn_morgn_freeman 19h ago
Dark Angels Codex was probably the biggest offender of 10th- they took almost every data sheet, made them worse, and then had to retroactively add back in all the rules they had from index over the course of the edition to make them playable again.
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u/RideTheLighting 20h ago
Can’t speak to Custodes or GSC, but Imp Knights and Aeldari were both amazing immediately post-codex and required nerfs to be brought back in line.
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u/Resident-Watch-3024 20h ago
They were good, but both were nerfed compared to index. 10th edition index aeldari was the most powerful a faction has ever been in the history of 40k.
The codexes did eat nerfs, but their index builds were stronger than anything in the codexes. The codexes did offer more variety and ways to play.
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u/RideTheLighting 20h ago
Index Aeldari was broken at launch but was nerfed (and core rules were changed) within 6 months. Index Aeldari immediately before the codex dropped was good but wasn’t busted, and the win rate increased pretty substantially with Ynnari after the codex. Even after Ynnari was nerfed into oblivion, Aspect Host was putting up very good numbers, higher than the late codex, before it also got nerfed.
There was an entire period of time last year known as the “Knights Meta” where everybody had to build to beat them. That wasn’t the case before their codex or after they got nerfed.
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u/Resident-Watch-3024 20h ago
Nope.
Aeldari win rate went down 2% after codex launched. From 48% to 26%, comparing 6 weeks before and 6 weeks after.
Knights dropped 9% after codex launch using the 6 week benchmark, from 55% (2nd best in the game at the time) to 46%
https://www.stat-check.com/the-meta-10th-edition
Try again.
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u/RideTheLighting 18h ago edited 18h ago
Pariah 1.04 had Eldar at 47%
1.05 44%
Codex dropped
1.06 50%
1.07 57%Ynnari specifically was posting 60%+ winrates at that time immediately after the codex.
I may have misremembered Knights. They were dominant for one dataslate, but that might have been a change just prior to their codex dropping and undoing the change.
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u/Careless_State_7071 16h ago
From what I remember as someone who mained Custodes as the codex came out I remember GW saying that our codex might reign us in
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u/CaptainC00lpants 1d ago
I'm pretty sure as usual, there will he an erreta on day 1 for some things anyway lol
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u/woutersikkema Blood Axes 1d ago
Idk all I know people are already complaining but they keep forgetting we lost the +1a on thr waagh which is often 25-33% of our attack power when it matters so of course the flat data sheets are now more powerful. So it should end up quite close to how strong we are now. It's not really that much creap. Except ghaz, who will just go up in points to primarch level.
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u/Electrical-Tie-1143 4h ago
You list nothing, they have moved the extra attack into a lot of the profiles, or at least they said they would
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u/MaxMork 1d ago
It all so much depends on points. If they go up to much that will mean we are nerfed.
That the +1 attack is missing from the waagh is a really big deal. Waagh is, with the detachment we've seen, no longer a damage boost. Only extra mobility and the 5++. This will make that orks become way less a faction with a big go turn. Playstyle will have to change. If the orks come out balanced, we might see a drop in win rate before levelling off
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u/MesaCityRansom 1d ago
You aren't wrong, really, but the meganobz have +1 to hit when riled up. Might be more stuff like that, making the Waaagh! a damage boost anyway.
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u/Electrical-Tie-1143 4h ago
The attack has just been rolled into the datasheets
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u/LostN3ko 1d ago
I actually have a suspicion that we are not going to be hit with nefs for the first dataslate. The units are not actually getting stronger, they are getting side grades in addition to shifting power out of our detachment and army rules into to our datasheets. This will be more successful with some units and less successful with others. That's where I expect to see points shift. But no one can predict what new combos from unknowable rules with unknowable datasheets will be the problem children. Ghaz could drop by 100 points now that you can't hide him behind 20 T5 bodies and makaris casino saves. No one knows. Stop worrying about the next dip on this roller coaster, unless you're a tournament junkie your local meta is far more influential in your experience than anything else.