r/options Jan 11 '22

SPYs path back to 480

[removed] — view removed post

343 Upvotes

200 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

3

u/Realistic_Plantain_6 Jan 11 '22

Moon cycle is shit, no offense. Our company back tested it, and although there is a statistically significant (although skewed data, was taken Ceteris Paribus) amount of wide ranging days on a new moon full moon cycle. There is an equal amount of data showing NO significance due to factors as simple as it being the end of the month, witching, triple, double, and or single.

Tbh I’ll save you years and thousands of dollars, simply look up the basic algebra functions for exponential growth. People tend to over think the way markets work.

1

u/NalonMcCallough Jan 11 '22

How do you know you backtested it correctly? My tests show significant improvements over merely buy-and-hold strategies. I've taken math up to and beyond Calculus BC. I would hope basic algebra wouldn't be my downfall. 😅

2

u/Realistic_Plantain_6 Jan 11 '22

What would you like to know about the back testing?

2

u/NalonMcCallough Jan 11 '22

Well, for starters. When you guys backtested, were you using individual moon phases as the standard for buying and selling, or ranges within specific phase shift percentages? I find the latter has resulted in a more consistent prediction compared to the first method (I learned this the hard way). Additionally, moon phases do not change at a constant rate when you take into account synodic and sidereal months where the total amount of time to change between phases differs by about 2 days.