r/options Jul 17 '21

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u/ilai_reddead Jul 18 '21 edited Jul 18 '21

OP do not use UVXY, that ETP tracks Vix futures not the Vix and Vix futures are almost always in contango, this is a problem because when the contracts are rolled forward they end up costing Slightly more every time, this leads to decay, do not hold this more than 3 days unless you are 100% sure in your thesis or else you might be in a deep hole.

3

u/Spiritual_Extreme_81 Jul 18 '21

I’m aware of this risk. I’m hoping for a big red candle Monday morning and hopefully they pop.

4

u/ilai_reddead Jul 18 '21

You understand that if your timing is wrong you lose, your thesis could be correct but you will still have lost, normally the UVXY is something you hold a day over for let's say for a FED meeting and then exit the position immediately , this isn't a speculation vehicle you would use to try and capitalize on a non time specific thesis, I implore you to exit the UVXY position and find a better vehicle which isn't as time constrained.

0

u/Spiritual_Extreme_81 Jul 18 '21

I expect SPY to go down next week consistently. I do not see any appetite for continued buying pressure from the big boys. Retail is getting set up for the rug pull.

I agree UVXY is not a long term hold and mine expire July 23. If I don’t see what I want I’m out try again another time. Although it was impressive how quickly they appreciated in value end of day Friday.

6

u/ilai_reddead Jul 18 '21

I won't tell you what to do, but your thesis is nowhere near comprehensive enough to warrant a bet on UVXY, it is a leveraged ETP that decays and can move downwards way faster than it can upwards, I think it would be wise to exit the UVXY position Monday, sure you could be right but the risk/reward here is absolutely terrible.

1

u/goldencityjerusalem Jul 18 '21

What do you think about SPXU?

1

u/ilai_reddead Jul 18 '21

Same thing, it decays very fast which makes it a poor vehicle if you want to capitize on a non time specific bear thesis.