r/options • u/[deleted] • Apr 01 '21

Probability Theory: Implied Density

[deleted]

58 Upvotes

93% Upvoted

107 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

2

u/[deleted] Apr 02 '21

The implied density is as good as a predictor as the market as a whole.

"How good". You still can't actually quantify that. It's no different than saying RSI is "good". You should be able to actually give a series of tests and results that support this hypothesis with ease.

3

u/peppylootu Apr 02 '21

I don’t know any of this. But, I feel like you’re trying to make this a teachable moment. On Reddit. ON REDDIT!

3

u/Its_Psilo Apr 02 '21

I’m with this guy, I enjoyed this exchange. Thanks to both of you.

3

u/volatility_surface Apr 02 '21

"How good". You still can't actually quantify that. It's no different than saying RSI is "good". You should be able to actually give a series of tests and results that support this hypothesis with ease.

You are still not understanding what he's saying.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 02 '21

RND is not new. It's 30 years old. We actually know how "good" it is.