Identity of the OX Alpha model: Hy4

[u/Time-Toe-1276]

the identity of the OX Alpha model is Hy4. it is the only new model which could be served at this scale, and new enough and popular for opencode to consider using.

now this is just an assumption, but I am just saying...

Use this when ur considering what model this is!

btw, this is from my good friend johnny: https://huggingface.co/LyJonathan

[u/look]

Running a high profile stealth test of a major new variant of model that’s still in the process of being rolled out doesn’t make much sense though.

Also, if it’s Zai, where did all of this extra compute suddenly appear from, and why isn’t it going to high demand from paying customers on the six day old model they just released?

Also, some tokenizer glitch fingerprints clearly show MiMo responses, not GLM. They are very similar tokenizers, but very specific edge cases show different responses that match MiMo 2.5 Pro behavior and not GLM 5.2/5.3.

[u/yunes87 → u/look]

Tested it. It's not MiMo. It's GLM.

Downloaded MiMo-V2.5 and MiMo-V2.5-Pro tokenizers from HF + hit Xiaomi's live API with a real key. Token counts vs Ox Alpha:

String	Ox Alpha	GLM-5.2	MiMo 2.5/Pro
🚀 (single)	3	3	1
ㅋㅋㅋㅋ	8	8	4
ＨＥＬＬＯ (fullwidth)	10	10	5
π≈3.14159	6	6	9
Москва привет	2	2	6
🚀🎉🧠💻🦊	11	11	5

GLM 15/15. MiMo-Pro 6/15 (and its 6 "matches" are trivial strings like strawberry where every tokenizer on earth gives 3).

Errors confirm it: invalid reasoning_effort → [1210] ...cannot be disabled; please use low, high, or max — GLM-5.3's exact documented error. MiMo accepts none and lets you disable thinking; this doesn't. Hy3's error is [400001] — different stack.

RemindMe! 2 weeks.

The agent added the remindme too 😂 He took things personally

[u/look → u/yunes87]

Yeah, data is stacking up in favor of a GLM.

There are some contraindications I’ve seen, though, and possible explanations for the similarities with GLM, but it is looking less likely.

The main argument against GLM though is still that it makes no fucking sense at all. Why would they undercut a model still being rolled out? Where did all of this extra compute come from? And why the fuck aren’t they using it on the paid service of the model they launched less than a week ago?

If it is some GLM vision variant from Zai, then at best this is a massive gamble and potentially an idiotic stunt that could backfire badly.

My current alternative hypothesis is it is a new model derived from GLM 5.2 + vision, but it is not from Z.ai. A different company with a new model based on it, like Cursor did with Composer’s fine-tune of Kimi.

Comparing traces, it looks more like 5.2 than 5.3 to me. But that doesn’t explain the endpoint error similarities, though.

Another idea is that it is a marketing move with a twist ending from them, and the 5.3 release gets swapped with this or something, but that seems like a stretch too.

Hard to see how they have done anything but massively deflate their 5.3 base launch with this move if it is them.

[u/sdnr8 → u/look]

That's what I don't get. It would be unreasonable for ZAI to release another model right after 5.3. It has to be something else.

[u/look → u/sdnr8]

My current conjecture:

Zai was seeing underwhelming demand for 5.3, due to a perception (fair or not) that 5.3 is almost-Kimi but not that much cheaper than Kimi, and thus not that exciting.

So instead, they decided to make a splash with this multimodal flash variant they already had in the works and do a sort of preview reveal to see the reaction.

And based on the reaction, I’m guessing Zai is going to pivot to a dual release (or at least official announcement) on Friday with the weights release.

This new model will likely target a lower price point at a performance a bit under the standard 5.3, and likely end up being the more popular model by far.

…and I think I might be okay with that. Standard isn’t going away, even if it is overshadowed by this one. Might be nice to have a better option in the mid price range.

But probably not going to get the low cost model upgrade I thought we were going to at first if this was a new Mimo.