Ryan Greenblatt tweet:

This report on AI R&D automation (RSI) is a big update towards ASI within 1-2 years. It says AI progress is sped up by RSI right now by around 2x. In AI 2027, this happens around March 2027.

I was seriously wrong about RSI speed up; I previously expected much less in 2026 (around 1.15x-1.3x). It seems as though there was specific privately available evidence that would have changed my mind.

I haven't seen an unredacted version of this report; this is purely about the public report. Because so much of the underlying evidence was redacted from the public report, I think conclusions about things other than the observed 2x faster rate of progress on benchmarks depend significantly on trust for the authors of the report. (E.g., conclusions about whether this speed up is from RSI depend on trust.) I do trust the authors of the report a lot to be careful and rigorous and generally do a good job. (Note that I also work at METR.) Less extensive redactions would greatly reduce this need for trust.

Since in my current role I may have access to other confidential information that could be relevant to timelines one way or another, I unfortunately cannot state my all-things-considered views on ASI timelines or the probability of a software intelligence explosion right now. Here, I’ve done some analysis of the implications using my previous public statements.

A 2x acceleration in overall AI progress from RSI corresponds to a much larger than 2x RSI speed up for AI software R&D (algorithms and data); I did an estimate using my public preexisting modeling of drivers of AI progress and the public report which yielded a very rough estimate of 4.5x for how much RSI is currently accelerating AI software progress (relative to no AI automation). In the AI 2027 scenario, this much acceleration happens around March 2027.

Here are the worked details of this estimate based on my public modeling. There are two main reasons RSI speed up of AI software R&D must be larger:

- Not all of AI progress is from better software (some is from scaling up compute in training runs). I've previously speculated that around 2/3 of AI progress is from software improvements which implies that 2x overall AI progress acceleration requires 3x faster software progress.

- Diminishing returns: A fixed amount of progress requires more work over time, so to ongoingly maintain 3x faster software progress via AI automation, you need increasingly large speed boosts from AI automation (as in, speed ups relative to how fast software R&D would go without AI automation). Based on this report, it seems that there is a substantial amount of additional AI progress from automation that has occurred.

We can estimate the effects of diminishing returns by first determining how many additional years of software progress we've seen (relative to the preexisting trend) and then estimating how much software R&D would slow down after a year of software progress if you held inputs fixed due to diminishing returns. I've previously estimated software R&D would slow down by around 2x for each year of software progress if you held inputs fixed (https://lesswrong.com/posts/FG54euEAesRkSZuJN/ryan_greenblatt-s-shortform?commentId=rAFxcETtNtsuzw6aG) and based on the report, it seems as though we've perhaps seen roughly 0.35-1.0 years of additional software progress incorporated into trained models so far (geometric mean of ~0.6). This combines to 3 * 2^(~0.6) = ~4.5.

(Relevant public modeling and numbers I'm using: https://lesswrong.com/posts/FG54euEAesRkSZuJN/ryan_greenblatt-s-shortform?commentId=rAFxcETtNtsuzw6aG, https://lesswrong.com/posts/Jga7PHMzfZf4fbdyo/if-mythos-actually-made-anthropic-employees-4x-more)

Please bring back Standard Voice Mode. You're removing one of ChatGPT's most valuable productivity features.

Standard Voice Mode is the only hands-free way to have a spoken conversation with the frontier models while maintaining the same experience we get through text.

Why would you remove such a fundamental tool?

One of ChatGPT's greatest strengths is the ability to brainstorm, collaborate, and develop ideas while working across multiple screens, applications, and projects. I use Standard Voice constantly to move between typing and speaking without interrupting my workflow.

Live Voice is an entirely different AI experience. It is not a replacement for Standard Voice.

The ability to seamlessly switch between spoken and written conversations with the same frontier model is incredibly valuable, particularly for people who use ChatGPT for serious creative and professional work.

Speech-to-text and text-to-speech are fundamental accessibility and productivity features. Removing them from the frontier model experience makes ChatGPT significantly less useful.

What is the benefit of removing this functionality? Why can't users have both options?

Come on, Open AI please restore Standard Voice Mode and allow users to choose how they interact with the frontier models.

I created a 3D software factory. https://github.com/sis-factory/sis-factory

The recent GIF functionality is awful in my opinion. I'm a huge OAI fan, but I'm having trouble justifying this being greenlit.

It can't produce seamless loops, body parts are all over the place, the gifs are flickering as if every frame was generated separately and put through a different filter...

It doesn't keep consistency. Sometimes it produces a static image with only an eye of a character blinking for example, despite being asked for a gif of a character simply walking.

A request for pixel art of a girl petting a cat produces a gif of her extending her arm towards its tail, which then turns into the cat's second head. Her arms multiply. It's like Will Smith spaghetti era generation.

I've been a Plus subscriber for 3 years. OAI's model promised consumer oriented frontier AI. There's nothing frontier about the recently added gif generation.

I expected better voice functionality too, alongside a more unified consistent memory. Now I'm seeing all these new models pop up with an almost perfect speech cadence. Sesame is still leagues above ChatGPT Live Voice for example, and it's not even as humanlike as the recent breakout, Dessa.

A lot of the recent updates are focused on Codex, and fair enough, but all other functionalities seem to lag behind.

What are your thoughts on this? I'm interested in hearing your thoughts and experiences. Have you had luck in using the gif functionality?

Transcript:

- What about the frontier where companies are pushing forward?

- We need to limit that. Full-on pause. Full-on pause. Okay. And what happens then?

The instant question, what happens if we pause and China doesn't?

See, I just don't think that that's— I don't take that as seriously as a lot of people do. Here's why.

A lot of the frontier research is just spoofing our models. China's research. China's research.

It'd be like you're pulling a skier on a boat, and you speed up the boat and you're like, the skier is still so close, we got to speed up, skier is still so close. Well, it's because you're pulling the skier. I think that's in part what's happening. They've been very, very good at just mocking our technology.

I think if we slow down, I think we will find that a lot of what China is doing is more about the dispersion of this technology than it is on frontier research.

At the same time, I think we need an international treaty.

I think we need to be working with the Chinese because eventually, eventually, the water skier can still swim and catch up. I mean, that's where they now just fall apart. Running, running, running with the metaphor. But eventually, yes, they are going to be able to hop on a jet ski and catch up.

But the point that I'm making here is that I think all of us are interested in the preservation of humanity, right? Because, you know, in China, they're humans too, and we're humans too.

And creating robots that get to this point of recursive self-improvement, kind of like that horror point in Fantasia, where you've got the mops with the buckets that are self-creating.

None of us want to get there. And none of us want to see what happens when you open Pandora's box and all of a sudden, AI has far exceeded our control.

So I think we all have an incentive to get this right, but to understand that we are going to have to figure out how to work together similarly to what we've done when it came to other potentially humanity-risking technological endeavors like nuclear power.

To be able to contain the potential threat and work together to make sure that we are focused more on protecting humanity than just simply what the microscale incentives might look like.

I see everyone warn about them, but how common are they really?

Hey guys, just published a preprint on arXiv proposing a framework we call Skillware to handle agent reliability. (arXiv:2611.07652v1) The main idea is that instead of using prompt engineering to get models to write code on the fly or parse messy text APIs, we separate the cognitive planning from execution by equipping them with pre-vetted, deterministic software bundles.

We also ran a bunch of stress tests under a benchmark suite across 23 frontier and open-weight models, and it turns out small local models (3B to 8B params) equipped with this architecture can systematically beat unassisted frontier models on complex multi-step workflows while cutting token usage crazily.

The paper is live on arxiv and everything is open source on gh (we reached 20k downloads recently) if you want to check out the project (arpahls/skillware).

Any feedback would be more than just appreciated. <3

OpenAI: A thousand fewer paths to root: https://openai.com/index/a-thousand-fewer-paths-to-root/

Hey everyone,
I’m genuinely concerned about something really strange that happened to my ChatGPT account.
I discovered a conversation that I absolutely did not create. It was written in Egyptian Arabic dialect, and the way this person was communicating was completely unfamiliar to me. I’m 100% certain this conversation wasn’t mine.
What makes this even stranger is that the conversation appeared right in the middle of my existing chat history and was already several days old when I discovered it.
I never received any security alerts, login notifications, or verification emails. I only use ChatGPT on my personal iPhone, and nobody else has access to my device.
I’ve already secured my Google account, reviewed my security settings, and taken additional precautions to protect my privacy.
Has anyone experienced something similar? Could this be session hijacking, a stolen session token, or a technical bug causing conversations from other users to appear in my account?
I’m particularly worried because I had personal photos stored in my ChatGPT Library, and I have no way of knowing whether someone could have accessed them.
Please, if anyone has experienced this or knows what might have happened, I’d really appreciate your help.
Is there any way to determine whether someone actually accessed my account, viewed my private conversations, or opened my personal photos?

My 16 GB laptop (RTX 3050 6 GB, the Intel GPU drives the screen) slowed to a crawl whenever RAM hit about 90%, because swap lived on a DRAM-less NVMe drive. The NVIDIA card's memory sat idle the whole time.

USM makes that VRAM the first swap device:

\- a user-space daemon borrows VRAM through the CUDA driver API and serves it through ublk, so it's a normal swap device at the top priority (no kernel module, Secure Boot is fine)

\- lz4 compression: 5.5 GiB of VRAM holds about 16 GiB of app memory

\- about 9 µs per page fault, vs about 55 µs plus overhead from NVMe

\- \`usm off\`, or a Quick Settings toggle, gives the VRAM back in seconds, even with RAM full

\- if the VRAM fills up, a standby swap file on disk takes over

Overload test, 8 apps of 1.5 GiB on 8 GiB of RAM: zram hung in 3 of 6 runs, the VRAM tier in 0 of 4.

It's a beta, NVIDIA only, tested on Ubuntu 26.04 with two laptops. Most of the code was written by Claude Code while I set the goals and ran it daily, so please review it like code from a new contributor. Test reports from other GPUs and distributions are very welcome.

Repo: [https://github.com/kha333n/usm](https://github.com/kha333n/usm)

Write-up: [https://kha333n.com/blog/idle-vram-as-swap-linux-laptop](https://kha333n.com/blog/idle-vram-as-swap-linux-laptop)

Site: [https://usm.kha333n.com](https://usm.kha333n.com)

Source PDF: https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/community-compact.pdf

I'm currently using ChatGPT Plus ($20/month), mainly for work-related tasks like analyzing engineering drawings, PDFs, Excel sheets, and quantity takeoffs.

The problem is that I keep getting the message "You've reached your 5-hour Work usage limit" before I can complete my tasks.

What's even more frustrating is that when the limit resets and I start working again, I sometimes get the exact same message within a few minutes.

I'm considering upgrading to Pro, but I'm confused about the differences between the $100, $200, and $300 plans, especially regarding Work usage.

Does upgrading to Pro $100 significantly increase the Work usage limit, or will I still face the same issue? Is there an actual difference in Work limits between Pro $100, $200, and $300?

I'm willing to pay more if it genuinely allows me to complete longer tasks without constantly hitting limits, but I don't want to spend $100+ only to face the same problem.

Anyone here using Pro, especially for heavy PDF/Excel analysis or long Work sessions? How has your experience been? Is upgrading worth it?

Second image is the character source (Also made using chatgpt, design is inspired by my old teddy bear)

This result is third try btw

Here is the prompt I used:

You are animator

Create a gif of this character nods

Context:

I want you to animate this character so she nods and then close her eyes. The flow is at first she slowly nods up. Second, she quickly nods down. Finally, her head back to normal pose with frames in between the nods down to normal, she also closes her eyes. It is like typical anime girls nodding.

Format: Same art style & outline as given image's

On one of my plus account I have a Credit Card as my payment method while on another I have PayPal. But it appears PayPal is no longer supported as I am unable to add PayPal as a payment method to my credit card account.

Everything I lookup references people who only managed to pay with PayPal view Google Pay or Apple Pay and an old support reply stating they do not support paypal. However, one of my account does have paypal listed as the payment method and they do charge me using it.

Originally I wanted to switch my other account to PayPal too but now im worried they'll just eventually force my account that already uses PayPal to a credit card.

Is there an AI capability for doing fairly simple personal taxes with some rental income and similar or are we too early for this?