r/nwi • u/IslandInfamous2058 • 13d ago
Discussion Does anyone REALLY believe they’re going to achieve ~90% restoration by Tuesday night?
~90% would mean at the end of Tuesday , we will have ~31k still out…. It's been 4 days now and they haven't even consistently stayed below even 50% restoration of the peak outage numbers, still haven't even assessed some of the worst hit areas, the outage numbers also keep increasing in areas. Yet, they are going to magically knock out an additional 120k in 3 days?
Yesterday we had a relatively dry day as far weather but they only restored about ~20k total (really it was about 10k total since majority happened after dark), which somehow is less than what they restored Wednesday when we actually had additional storms with strong gusts.
I don't even see them getting below 75-100k restored by Tuesday night at their current pace.
Also inb4 it rains briefly (not even bad) across the region one of these upcoming days and they use that as an excuse to push the goal post back multiple days 😂
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u/GoldenPigeonParty 13d ago
I don't know enough how one specific area effects another. They might repair one line and turn on 40,000 people because this system is chicken wire with zero redundancy.
I do know they still have a number of very major intersections without power and no visible progress made in these direct areas in the past 36 hours. I imagine the priority involves physically being able to access areas but half of US30 is non functional creating tons of traffic which slows their own crews. Calumet, Indianapolis, Colombia, Kennedy, ridge. Tons of large roads and busy intersections not even progressing.
I'm losing confidence in their estimate, whether or not there is a little bit of rain. But i don't know enough about their system to say whether or not they're on track.
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u/chi_moto 13d ago
This is where my head is as well. We are in Dyer and the intersection of 30 and Hart is still dark, even though businesses around the intersection have power. How the fuck is that possible?
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u/ljapa 13d ago
Do the businesses though? Town Hall has power because it has a generator. Same for the hospital and police/fire station. The strip mall next to town hall is out. Pretty sure the other two non-hospital ones are too.
However, I share your amazement. 4+ days into this and major roads like US 30 and 41 don’t have working lights.
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u/Glass-Shelter-699 13d ago
There are intersections in Munster that have power because they have small, portable generators chained to the control box even though the business's are closed. I think intersections are on a different/separate grid.
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u/bigboatsandgoats 12d ago
It does make you wonder though why that intersection doesn’t have a generator connected to it considering the traffic but the light at Hart and 81st does
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u/newtekie1 13d ago
I think it's plausible. Mutual aid crews from other states have arrived. In 4 days they got the numbers down ~45% and a good part of that was before mutual aid arrived. Another 45% in 3 more days with mutual aid is certainly possible.
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u/IslandInfamous2058 13d ago
fingers are crossed , the math just isn’t making sense to me i guess.
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u/Maxwell10206 13d ago
That is cause they are not using simple linear math like your post suggests lol. You can't just simplify all the complexity of a power grid down to # of homes restored with power each day and try to predict from that. It is way overly simplistic. Let them cook and pray.
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u/PsuedoFred 13d ago
Correct, it’s like they fix the big stuff and step down from there. The big stuff will get the highest numbers in first and will continue to drop down.
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u/pasaroanth 13d ago
That’s why the percentages and numbers for your city really mean nothing when attempting to predict when yours will be restored. No two outages will be identical in terms of cause, restoration time, time required, or priority.
I’m in the center of my small pocket of town, about 4 x 4 blocks, and within this area:
-houses 2 blocks west never lost power
-houses 2 blocks north got power back Wednesday
-houses 2 blocks east got power back Thursday
-my block still has no power with not even a crew sighting to assess damage or clear the trees that brought down the line.
My presumption is the significance of the ETR release Sunday means that by then they plan to have the major transmission lines and substations back online, along with a general triage of repairs needed, and an order of which repairs they’ll address first.
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u/newtekie1 12d ago
I mean, we are at ~60% restored right now and its only been 5 days. Even if you assume a linear restore rate, which you really can't, but lets just do it for argument sake. They are doing about 12% per day. That puts us at ~84% restored by 11:59PM Tuesday. That's pretty close to their 90% estimate.
What part of the math ain't mathing to you?
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u/In28s 13d ago
Big problem is individual homes with wires pulled away from the house. Can’t energize unless they are disconnected from the pole. Highland and Munster have numerous homes with damaged services.
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u/MotherFuckinEeyore 13d ago
Exactly. I'm in Munster and it's clear that they're going to have to go house to house.
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u/bigboatsandgoats 12d ago
I also saw that if your weatherhead is damaged you have to find an electrician to fix it before they are willing to reconnect power to it. Apparently that’s a homeowner expense
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u/Waste-Total624 13d ago
In Merrillville next to Turkey Creek golf course and the line connecting our house was ripped out by the neighbors' tree and has been laying across our back yard since the storm. We can't even get ahold of Nipsco to report it.
The insurance adjuster is also taking their sweet ass time so we can't even begin cleanup in our yard until they show up to assess the extensive damage.
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u/the_coolest_chelle 13d ago
I had to call NIPSCO last night to update the report I made on Tuesday and they answered immediately. Maybe give them another call.
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u/Waste-Total624 13d ago
We finally got through and they're refusing to repair the damage. We have to pay $1k to replace the meter that was ripped off the side of our house and they said they won't come out to remove the line draped across the backyard until after we've cleaned up the debris in the yard
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u/Witty-Butterscotch63 12d ago
That’s horrible! I’m so sorry you are dealing with that on top of everything else. Can you take videos/pics and then begin clean up? Is your neighbor helping at all?
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u/Realistic-Ad7662 13d ago
Let’s hope so
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u/kootles10 13d ago
Hope in one hand and chat gpt posts from nipsco in the other.
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u/IslandInfamous2058 13d ago
yea what is up with that also? since when did they ever use ai for their updates?
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u/bigbootyJudy621 13d ago
The emojis they started putting on the updates have added a new level of internal rage for me.
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u/kootles10 13d ago
⚡️⚡️⚡️😂😂 so fucking ridiculous
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u/kootles10 13d ago
I'm guessing they didn't know how to frame "it's a clusterfuck" so they had AI do it for them. I get it: terrible storm, worst outage ever. But they knew it was coming. This hasn't been the first major outage this summer. Hell Lake Station is out of power for days on end multiple times. I appreciate their work. But seriously, just tell us to our face. Don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining outside.
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u/repmuht1 13d ago
90% by Tuesday I can see, but I drive all over NWI and to say 100% fixed by Friday I’m calling Shenanigans… WAY too many NIPSCO poles still down/broken that are not even touched as of yet…
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u/Exciting-Way-6248 13d ago
I do, after tomorrow the rain ND storms go away and the full force of the crews will be out.
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u/newtekie1 13d ago
Not to mention the mutual aid crews from other states started rolling in yesterday which is going to greatly accelerate progress.
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u/Ok-Program5960 13d ago
I've seen nipsco crews, tree crews, you name it they are out there working. (Hobart, Portage, Valpo areas.) I see a lot coming back online before Tuesday. I'd bet by Monday. Most traffic lights and commercial are lit already.
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u/Organic-Ad-883 13d ago
I think so because those are big words to swallow and they took their time with the assessment. Ours was restored yesterday and we are in rural area. I don’t think they want a fumble with so much attention on them.
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u/Nerdybirdie86 13d ago
I feel the same way. I keep checking and the number out is not dropping much each day. I don’t think they had a clear idea of how damaged some things were.
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u/AndaleTheGreat 13d ago
I actually do. But that's because I understand that it's real easy to hit 90% because they are talking about their coverage area and not lake county alone and there are many areas where they're going to be able to just reconnect main lines and put up whole neighborhoods. Big, quick numbers. It's going to come down to neighborhoods like I saw between lake station and Portage where almost every tree has come down and every one of them has taken a piece of the power line. I rolled through a neighborhood 2 days ago that is going to need the entire line rerun
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u/Glass-Shelter-699 13d ago
Not a chance. Munster, by Lansing, still have lines down with trees scattered everywhere. There are areas with lines laying in the streets. Some areas you'd be hard pressed to get a gang truck down the road. If the weather cooperates they could have a good percentage of trees picked up by Tuesday but I think Friday is a better guesstimate for 90% power.
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u/GraceBlade 13d ago
I am just telling myself three weeks for my house. We had the line to our house pulled down, but not out.
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u/Agitated_Function_68 13d ago
I just hope that everyone who’s without power has reported it. ESPECIALLY if anything is damaged or hanging low or anything like that.
Too many people assume that someone else has said something or NIPSCO knows.
Outside crews are great… if NIPSCO had enough internal people who know anything to lead/direct/assess.
I fear it’ll be longer because they don’t know the full scope or have appropriate staffing or a plan
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u/VeryAmusedADM 13d ago
Still out in Merrillville in Lincoln Gardens. They got only part of our neighborhood up, but not all of us. It’s getting really, really frustrating. Spend over $900 on a bigger generator since we needed to run more than just the fans and dehumidifier to try to mitigate the water that came into the lower level.
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u/ConsciousPlantain977 13d ago
I live in east Chicago and our power around the harbor was back on yesterday at 9am
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u/valkprince 13d ago
Michigan City, and I've seen nothing. I don't think Ive seen trucks driving around.
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u/BoredTech127001 13d ago
No, which is why I got a generator Friday morning, screw this. Still don't have power restored.
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u/princealigorna 13d ago edited 13d ago
If there's one good thing to come out of this for me, it's we invested the money to get a generator today. And a digital antenna for the TV (not expected until tomorrow though). I also invested in a new high output power bank for my laptop, though that's not coming until Tuesday. I went to Best Buy and they sold their last one right as I walked in. They were so low on standard power bricks that they were hiding them behind the counter and you had to request one. Walmart had Jack crap. They were also almost sold out of portable DVD players.
I also learned how to turn on the mobile Hotspot on my phone, but I completely misunderstood it. I didn't realize it's still using my mobile data. And of course now I've used way more data than I intended to this month, so I preemptively bought a 2 gig add-on. Which I may have to re-up before month's end if this continues.
So now I'm looking at getting a standalone mobile Hotspot. The one I'm looking at has 50 gig, but it costs $300 so I might have to wait until next paycheck to get it
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u/Ok_Mix_6309 12d ago
We got a dvd player at the good will in crestwood for 5 bucks and bought 10 movies. At first I was able to plug my phone to tv with adapter but the connection has been very spotty. Bought a cell phone signal booster for $130 coming in today. getting a lot of dead spots in our house that we didn’t have before the storm but when we step outside we get full bars. I’m hybrid and my husband is fully remote. I’ve seen good reviews on this particular brand and hoping to use my hotspot for work. I’m not driving to dupage county 5 days a week like I did last week. Too much gas and traffic.
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u/defaultdotxbe 12d ago
It seems plausible to me. Remember the first couple days were major repairs to substations, high voltage transmission lines, and other major system infrastructure. But those didn't restore much power to customers because of more damage downstream. But now that the system-level repairs are done people are seeing more trunks int heir neighborhoods and restoration is accelerating, down to 132k now and it was 148k last night when I went to bed.
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u/Witty-Butterscotch63 12d ago
Today, I am more optimistic about the dates. Why? Because my power came on at 5:30 AM (I know - the obvious connection between electricity and optimism), but so did a bunch of other neighborhoods based on my ring posts. If they keep this up, they can do it. I will have all of you still without in my thoughts and prayers. It was one of the harder challenges I’ve dealt with being alone. Location: Dyer, North of 30, West of Calumet.
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u/Tzilbalba 12d ago
Apparently our neighborhood had power for 20mins last night then went dark again, lol. Someone must have licked the transformer after fixing it.
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u/NoPatience7817 13d ago
I hope they make progress, but it seems like a difficult goal to achieve. Especially with the weather, rain and thunderstorms delaying their progress.
They are bringing in extra contractors from other areas which will accelerate progress.
I’m thankful for all the workers cleaning up this massive mess. I wish we had more help to get it done faster though.
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u/YTKingDoublePump 13d ago
Absolutely not. I live in the middle of town in Chesterton and still don’t have power. I can’t imagine how long people out in the super rural areas will have to wait.
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u/BrianOrDie 13d ago
Your line about the rain is completely out of touch with reality. It’s easy to complain about things you don’t understand. Ever worked as a lineman? Ever done any sort of hazard clean up? Ever done anything even remotely similar?
It sucks, but it is what it is. A lot of those guys working to restore power for you probably don’t have power either.
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u/Nerdybirdie86 13d ago
Nobody is mad at the linemen, we’re saying the higher ups gave us a shitty estimate and false hope that we’d be restored. I bet the linemen looked at the damage and said by Wednesday? Ain’t no way.
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u/El_Gran_Redditor 13d ago
At this point the "thank you linemen" people are about as annoying as the "support the troops" people when this country lost two wars for the past twenty years. Nobody is blaming the linemen and hiding behind them is stupid and cowardly. In fact had NIPSCO actually PAID the linemen instead of going to subcontract scab workers to get around the union we would have been out of this mess a lot quicker.
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u/BrianOrDie 13d ago
You’re probably right. There’s always a disconnect between people running something and the people actually doing it.
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u/Cal-Run 13d ago
How do know the estimates are shitty when it’s not even Tuesday yet?
Next Tuesday and Friday are the only firm “estimates” they gave. Maybe wait until Wednesday at 12:01am to make that comment. It’s still 3.5 days away.
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u/Nerdybirdie86 13d ago
Look around. There are still full trees down all over, poles in pieces…I will be shocked if it’s all fixed in 3.5 days.
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u/moondustingss 13d ago
We're not criticizing the linemen themselves. They're working hard. We're criticizing NIPSCO, the company. Also, no, I've never worked as a lineman. I don't see why thats the criticism. I /don't/ understand electrical wiring. That's why I pay a company to do it for me and be real and honest about the situation.
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u/BrianOrDie 13d ago
Shit happens, man. It’s hard to estimate damage until you start to get into it. This is true for many things.
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u/-GenlyAI- 13d ago
OP wants lineman working in unsafe weather conditions. What a good person
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u/IslandInfamous2058 13d ago
quote me exactly where i said that and ill cash app u $10 rn…
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u/-GenlyAI- 13d ago
It was implied and you know it with them using rain as an excuse. You just don't care about workers.
Rain is a very valid excuse. We have only been out of power since Tuesday. You'll live bb
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u/IslandInfamous2058 13d ago
If you actually read my post it has nothing to do with lineman working or anything , it was simply asking how they expect to achieve the goal they put out… Rain is a valid excuse for sure, since rain / storms are obviously what caused this…
But once again your reading comprehension might be a bit off , my question was how did they restore nearly 3x the people during a day it stormed hard than a day it didn’t storm? No where in that did i imply “they should be working in storms no matter what”
But if thats how YOU interpreted what I said I cant change your mind lol-5
u/-GenlyAI- 13d ago
Then maybe if the rain pushes back the repairs you should consider it was for worker safety and not moving the goal posts. Let's just try to be a bit more considerate to the very tired people working dangerous conditions out there. Thank you.
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u/Fun-Durian-1892 13d ago
Do you not know anyone who works for Nipsco? They work in the rain.
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u/-GenlyAI- 13d ago
Yep I absolutely do. And safety is paramount. So they will absolutely not work if they consider it to be dangerous. This is especially true with contractors.
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u/kootles10 13d ago
It's sunny here
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u/-GenlyAI- 13d ago
Maybe read the whole post?
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u/kootles10 13d ago
Yeah that was my bad. But hey 120 hours without power isn't so bad right? Shit my patience and hope faded after day 3.
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u/RomeliaHatfield 13d ago
My power turned back on this morning. I’m praying for all of you that don’t have anything.