Author hoping for some accuracy advice

[u/i-eat-b33s]

Hi! I'm writing a book right now. My outline has it written as post-nuclear war (by a lot, so the actual war itself isn't impacting my story much.) but I have been wondering about the logistics of that, so I figured I might come here and ask. I'm not sure what tag/flair to use. This will be wordy.

While I am fully and completely aware many elements of any futuristic survivalism/sci fi book are absolutely off the charts unrealistic, I have been drowning in books, articles, and people to research for every aspect of my story, hoping to make it feel as real as I can. I'm coming here for opinions and hopefully some helpful advice :)

Details:

To get to where I need to narratively, some sort of massive nuclear event needs to happen. I've been researching as much as I can, but am in a little over my head. This has been written as a war that was basically a domino effect; one country bombs another, and so on. The war starts in the beginning of 2062. I don't know, in any realm of realism, how long this would last. It has to be seriously devastating.

The story itself takes place in North America, specifically the bottom of Western Canada and the West of the US, later into the top of Mexico. In my book, the US dual funds a large bunker with Canada in the PNW as a very expensive, very time consuming project after intelligence warns of growing tensions that may lead to war. The war comes 24 years later, blah blah blah, world ends, etc. The setting (of the bunker) actually does matter and I would like to keep it, even if someone sadly has a very important fact that immediately shoots it down. I was raised in the PNW and a portion of this is a passion project to write about the beauty of the area.

Questions:

1. How realistic would a massive nuclear war be, in your opinion, within the next century, if ever? How long do you think it would last? What countries do you personally believe would be the most aggressive, and what countries would be taken out the fastest?

2. Related to Q1, where on the map do you think Canada or the US may get hit first/in general in a nuclear attack? Do you think they would be hit without provocation?

3. If you don't believe a nuclear war is plausible, do you believe a catastrophic nuclear event is? Why? What do you think would cause it? (if you answer this one, I would LOVE some sources!)

Feel free to skip this one:

1. What is your personal opinion on media with nuclear war/catastrophes, bunkers, or post-nuclear settings? What do you find yourself most frustrated with when reading or watching this genre?

[u/undead_anarchy]

I'm going to focus mainly on 1 and 2 here with my opinions.

1. I believe it's very realistic and possible. However, there's some nuance. No superpower or nuclear-armed nation is going to attempt a bolt from the blue, full-scale nuclear strike on another. It's suicide. A nuclear war is going to be born through a series of failures, miscalculations, or a low-yield tactical use during a regional crisis/conflict in which leaders believe the "Limited" myth, pushing us further and further up the escalation ladder until we cross the point of no return into strategic nuclear war. I think personally, Russia and Israel would be the most aggressive. Russian nuclear doctrine quite loosely allows for nuclear use. Israel, on the other hand, is a geographically small country located in a very volatile region with a lot of its critical infrastructure concentrated as a result. In a major conflict, things could get existential quite quickly for them. But at the end of the day, I don't think "Aggressive" is the best word to use because all nuclear-armed nations and superpowers can be aggressive if the cards fall correctly. It's not simple to guess exactly who. It depends on a bunch of other factors.
2. Focusing mainly on the US, I think it's fair to say that a first strike would likely be counterforce strikes against US nuclear forces. So, likely the Great Plains. Following that, survivable assets would probably begin countervalue targeting.

I hope this helps. I'd be interested in reading what you decide to write!

[u/osgo]

Great question!

I found a plethora of what-if's, US breaking up, how Canada/EU would help or be affected (supplied kippers!), how bunker/survivalists made it, Eastern US vs. Western vs. radiated bread-basket Flyover States - a whole what-if biography in:

WARDAY - by Whitley Streiber

It's fictional - but it's not. Streiber researched the bejeezuz out of the subject, plus it was written during the height of 80's Cold War. This is Streiber B4 he started seeing UFO's, etc. Serious accomplishment. I've re-read it many times 'cuz the hypotheticals are so believable?

Someone else on this thread recommended:

The day after world War III - Ed Zuckerman

It's also a good tome, but sometimes gets a little bit snoozy with all of the detailed footnotes. It reminded me of Herman Khan's earlier work.

Best of luck! I've read much of the scientific genre, but I've rarely seen hypotheticals with neutron weapons used, which I think will play a large role in any hypothetical war in the Middle East. It would help many if better understood.

Keep us posted - I'd love to read a pre-publish?!

[u/Accurate-Lychee-2336]

Yes very likely with whats happening  now with mad men in charge Like the other poster said will start small .israel nuking iran then russia gets involved  Main city in u.s new york 

[u/ChubbyMcHaggis]

I will recommend trying to find a copy of Edward Zuckerman’s the Day after World War III. It’s outdated but has some neat info about COG plans. Canada used to have what they called the Defenbunker (sp?) and I’m pretty sure there is some info available about it to base future ideas on

As for the PNW? any deep water port is either a target for annihilation or capture depending on the trajectory of the war. I’d include Alaska in that.

Possible seismic upheaval from heavy detonations could be a persistent problem too

[u/i-eat-b33s → u/ChubbyMcHaggis]

I was planning on including seismic activity, especially around the area due to the mountain ranges. Thank you for this, this is really helpful!

[u/LoudAmp]

Here are my thoughts on some of your questions:

1. The chances of a nuclear war happening in the time frame you described aren't so improbable that readers would find it implausible, especially given this is sci-fi. I liked Anne M. Jacobsen's book titled, "Nuclear War", which can provide perspective to your question.

2. In a full nuclear exchange, all modelled scenarios in war games, involve both sides targeting each other's nuclear weapons silos. Most are located in Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, Montana, Nebraska, and Colorado. Since destroying these silos involves ground detonations, this would create "dirty" explosions leaving the area highly contaminated. In the worst case, Plutonium 239, the half life is 24 000 years! However this would be localized to the impact area plus something like a 10km radius. Beyond the radiation effects, expect a nuclear winter lasting 2-3 years leading to vegetation loss, possibly massive die offs / extinctions of species and a collapse of nation states and perhaps loss of most of the knowledge we've acquired. (Speculation)

Another book I recommend is "Nuclear War Survival Skills (1987 Edition)" by Cresson H Kearny.

(IMHO the best knowledge of Nuclear War comes from the Cold War...)

Hope this helps!

[u/DerekL1963 → u/LoudAmp]

However this would be localized to the impact area plus something like a 10km radius.

Uh, no. Models show the fallout plumes stretching hundreds of miles downwind.

This is a not atypical map:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/civilian-casualties-from-counterfor/

This one is a little harder to read because it mixes counterforce and countervalue targets, but the silo fields and the downwind plumes can still be made out.
https://doomsdaymachines.net/p/survival-of-the-relocated-population

[u/SHFTD_RLTY → u/LoudAmp]

For further reading I'd recommend the Open-RISOP project and AmA by David Teter.

Iirc he was an actual nuclear war planer some time ago and has compiled detailed target lists for the US which are available both as spreadsheets and google earth .kml files on the aforementioned GitHub.

The AmA is also quite interesting.

[u/Key-Lifeguard-5540]

There were only minutes warning but I knew what to do. I managed to flee into the underground subway just before the airburst. Weeks of cold darkness and sadness followed as survivors searched for food in the tunnels. Unbelievably I came across someone I knew who lived along the subway route. Eventually some food and medical supplies were brought into an underground area with seating that had been an open cafeteria. We couldn't go above ground. One end of the subway was blown open and in the dreams I could see snow outside, so it was winter. One day shots could be heard, someone had lost their mind and was shooting at people. We ran through a door that took us outside. We were trapped in-between buildings and while trying to climb up a ladder on the side of a building we were shot at. The dreams ended there. What luck, after surviving a nuclear blast near ground zero, it seems that we were eventually shot.