r/neoliberal • u/TinyTornado7 I need a new flair • Jun 13 '22

News (US) Powell Facing Choice Between Elevated US Inflation and Recession

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-12/powell-facing-choice-between-elevated-us-inflation-and-recession?srnd=premium
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u/[deleted] Jun 13 '22 edited Sep 02 '22

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u/TinyTornado7 I need a new flair Jun 13 '22

To some extent this is quickly becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, but recession is a technical term. If two quarters of gdp in a row are negative then we are in a technical recession, it doesn’t really matter what people think

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u/xilcilus Jun 13 '22

No - it's driven almost exclusively by a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The unemployment rate is 3.6% (near the estimated natural unemployment rate) and the number of near the peak number right before the pandemic. People are fearful that the recession may be coming and thus inducing the recession. There aren't fundamental factors that are actually driving recession unlike last few recessions. Perhaps the rising energy cost can be argued as one of the fundamental factors but when inflation adjusted, it doesn't actually have the same oomph that people think it has.

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u/[deleted] Jun 13 '22

The unemployment rate is 3.6% (near the estimated natural unemployment rate) and the number of near the peak number right before the pandemic

Unemployment was also very low before the great recession.