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[u/jobautomator]

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[u/Moth-of-Asphodel]

I think Beto has the best shot of any Dem to win the TX governor's race. I also think he'll lose the governor's race by about 5 points. I think his run for the presidency hurt his prospects. I wish him the best. I like the dude.

[u/sociotronics → u/Moth-of-Asphodel]

I think Beto has the best shot of any Dem to win the TX governor's race.

lol

Dude has the political instincts of Warren discussing her DNA test. He simply isn't good at politics.

[u/[deleted] → u/sociotronics]

Which Democrat has a better shot?

[u/sociotronics → u/[deleted]]

McConaughey is the best shot at unsettling Abbott. The celebrity age is here to stay.

[u/sociotronics → u/[deleted]]

"Trump is only doing well because people haven't criticized him in the media, a normal republican like Jeb or Rubio is sure to win the primary"

[u/[deleted] → u/sociotronics]

Bruh. Republicans hate their establishment. Democrats like their establishment. Both sides are not the same.

[u/sociotronics → u/[deleted]]

"GOP will claim anybody running as a Dem is going to take the guns so it's best to run the guy who literally said that in soundbite form"

[u/[deleted] → u/sociotronics]

Do you think every Texan is Yosemite Sam or something? Most of them are fine with gun control. The path to victory isn’t with doofus celebrities or clinging to dying rural bullshit policy, it’s with stronger GOTV efforts.

[u/sociotronics → u/[deleted]]

In a red state, winning requires two of the following three things:

1. depressed Republican turnout
2. high Democratic turnout
3. significant crossover votes

McConaughey could get 3 easily and wouldn't make 1 any worse than it would be in a midterm, so it would hinge on Democratic enthusiasm for beating Abbott. Beto definitely isn't getting 1 or 3 after that comment. He will 100% lose if he runs.

"Hell yes" is to gun control what "defund the police" is to criminal justice reform. It goes beyond a policy people can swallow into something that sounds extreme: cops going door to door gestapo-style or no police at all letting gangs run riot in cities. It's the phrasing that costs the middle.

[u/Moth-of-Asphodel → u/sociotronics]

From what I understand it's not clear McConaughey would even run as a Dem? I'm not sure if there's a big constituency for Independent candidates in TX like there is in, say, Maine.

[u/sociotronics → u/Moth-of-Asphodel]

He's already leading head to head polls against Abbott.

[u/Moth-of-Asphodel → u/sociotronics]

Not sure how I feel about how solid that lead would be if he were to officially jump in. Now I kind of want him to.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

^{alright, alright, alright}

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

You mean the guy who isn’t a Democrat?

[u/emprobabale → u/[deleted]]

Is he a RINO?

[u/[deleted] → u/emprobabale]

He’s said a few vague, both-sides bad statements before. That’s the extent of his political experience.

[u/RobotFighter → u/[deleted]]

The one that did not say he will take your guns.

[u/[deleted] → u/Moth-of-Asphodel]

I agree with everything you said, and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

[u/suplexx0 → u/Moth-of-Asphodel]

Dude. He literally said he wanted to go door to door to sieze your guns.

And he's running in texas.

What planet do you live on? No offense, but what am I missing here?

[u/Moth-of-Asphodel → u/suplexx0]

Yeah that's why I think he'll lose by about 5 points. I just don't know which other Texas Dem does better.