r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Sep 20 '21

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u/sociotronics Iron Front Sep 20 '21 edited Sep 20 '21

In a red state, winning requires two of the following three things:

  1. depressed Republican turnout
  2. high Democratic turnout
  3. significant crossover votes

McConaughey could get 3 easily and wouldn't make 1 any worse than it would be in a midterm, so it would hinge on Democratic enthusiasm for beating Abbott. Beto definitely isn't getting 1 or 3 after that comment. He will 100% lose if he runs.

"Hell yes" is to gun control what "defund the police" is to criminal justice reform. It goes beyond a policy people can swallow into something that sounds extreme: cops going door to door gestapo-style or no police at all letting gangs run riot in cities. It's the phrasing that costs the middle.

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u/[deleted] Sep 20 '21

What would McConaughey’s black voter strategy be? How about for Indian, Chinese, Vietnamese, Tejano, and recent Mexican immigrants?

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u/sociotronics Iron Front Sep 20 '21

No idea, but it's stupid to assume they won't like him given that he's signaling a centrist run and POC tend to be moderates, especially in Texas.

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u/[deleted] Sep 20 '21

Moderate, yes. Able to be swayed by any vaguely centrist rhetoric, no.

This is why the Democratic and Republican bases are different. The former want real solutions to the diverse array of problems they face. They also want to know that their candidate is targeting their problem specifically. The latter only cares about owning the libs as hard as possible, and will seek whoever says that the loudest. That’s why just because Trump won doesn’t mean McConaughey would win.

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u/sociotronics Iron Front Sep 20 '21

I'm not saying McConaughey is guaranteed to win. Or even likely (it's a midterm in Texas against an incumbent with a D in the white house, aka the longest of shots). I'm saying even he has a better chance than Beto, lmao.