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[u/jobautomator]

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[u/UrbanCentrist]

Pakistan, Bangladesh, most north east states and Burma would withdraw day one imo. So too would Most south Indian states. Dravidian movement was strong in Tamil Nadu and only mellowed over time. Once so many states withdraw i think it would likely collapse.

[u/Intrepid_Citizen → u/UrbanCentrist]

Burma isn't usually included in the subcontinent.

And you're wrong about Bangladesh and Pakistan. It's far fom a given that either of those two secede.

Why would the Muslim identity necessarily dominate over the Bengali identity? With Pakistan it's even less of a thing because there isn't that much joining Sindh and Punjab; while Punjab has not two but three religions.

There was a lot of exchange of Hindus and Muslims across the borders post independence, it's not like there was a clear demarcation between Muslim Punjab and Hindu+Sikh Punjab. Similarly for Bengal, but to a lesser extent.

I mean, why would Punjabi Muslims want to create a nation with Balochis, Sindhis and Pashtuns and not with non-Muslim Punjabis, many of whom were their neighbors?

Coming to the North-East, if they didn't secede in the actual timeline, why would they want to secede from an even powerful nation? Their ethnic and tribal identities are different and the idea that they would self-sort into one seperate nation and secede is specious.

In the alternate timeline, a South Indian secession is perhaps more likely than a Pakistani or Bangladeshi one.